Werewolf Blank

I said not to lynch them today. Less actives today, but watch that pool like a hawk.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

I said not to lynch them today. Less actives today, but watch that pool like a hawk.

Yeah in which case, I agree with you.

It seems nobody believes I'm the seer. Luckily, I don't have to write much to prove anything. Dan's a wolf.

Lynch Dan

Hey boog, I'd love to listen to you if you could explain to me why you're not already dead

Hey wuf, I'd love to explain to you why I'm not dead if I knew why I wasn't dead.

lol

Like I'd even be the first look up.

Boog says ban is a wolf and for today that is good enough for me.

Lynch
DanAronG

It's posts like that that make me happy to see you lynched.

I think this is an attempt from the wolves to get the seer to waste a look up scanning dan.

Flomo, you're kidding, right? I can't speak for everyone else, but I have this nagging feeling that boog is telling us fibs. Lynching dan today is like the most retarded thing we can do.

Originally Posted by BooG690

It seems nobody believes I'm the seer. Luckily, I don't have to write much to prove anything. Dan's a wolf.

This is pretty half arsed, it should be clear now that boog is a wolf. I mean, if he really is the seer, he understands why the village is having a hard time believing him, so this pathetic wagon attempt tells us that boog doesn't really give a crap any more, he knows he's dying soon and wants to throw some confusion out there. But all he's done imo is confirm dan as a villager, because a wolf boog does not try to lynch a wolf dan when the seer is still alive.

So cheers boog.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

It's posts like that that make me happy to see you lynched.

It's post like that which confirm you as a wolf.

Flomo, are you on a different planet? It seems like you're nominating yourself for lynch today...

Ong, I understand the village is having trouble believing me. However, I didn't feel a huge defense post was necessary since I nabbed a wolf. How else am I to prove to the village that I'm the seer?

So we have 3 likable scenarios on the game so far

1. Boog is a wolf, he outed as a seer to save himself from a lynch and now he is trying to buy time by getting us to lynch Dan
2. Boog was the lost wolf and was turned, he is trying to buy time by getting us to lynch Dan
3. Boog is the seer, the wolves did not nom him since they figured out who the lost wolf is and prefered to turn a wolf and get the village to level himself.

Anyway we have one confirmed wolf in {Dan, boog} and this situation will be resolved for us, so there is no point in lynching any of them now IMO.
BTW it is also possible that both are wolves, assuming that if we go after Boog Dan will get cover, so just because Boog is a wolf does not make Dan automaically a villager

What we should focus about is getting the lost wolf, here we have two theories
1. Wolves figured out the lost wolf based on day 1 info - if this is the case it was someone who plays differently then in other games - BID and Flomo are my top two choices for now
2. Wolfs randomly hit the lost wolf when nomming a strong player (Benny, TLR, Dan, JDKS)

I think option 1 is more likely then option 2 and will stick with my lynch BID for now

Originally Posted by BooG690

How else am I to prove to the village that I'm the seer?

By getting nommed. If the bodygurad protects you tonight and dies, then we'll lynch dan tomorrow. I don't have you as 100% wolf for the reasons TLR gives, but you're >90% wolf here. Tomorrow we know more, the wolves cannot afford to leave the seer for any longer, because it's going to take them two noms to kill the outed seer.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think this is an attempt from the wolves to get the seer to waste a look up scanning dan.

Flomo, you're kidding, right? I can't speak for everyone else, but I have this nagging feeling that boog is telling us fibs. Lynching dan today is like the most retarded thing we can do.



This is pretty half arsed, it should be clear now that boog is a wolf. I mean, if he really is the seer, he understands why the village is having a hard time believing him, so this pathetic wagon attempt tells us that boog doesn't really give a crap any more, he knows he's dying soon and wants to throw some confusion out there. But all he's done imo is confirm dan as a villager, because a wolf boog does not try to lynch a wolf dan when the seer is still alive.

So cheers boog.

Small possibility they're both wolves but I don't think that would be a very smart play.

Originally Posted by JKDS

Heh I missed that. Move benny to sort of like Lynch, add gizmo to wanna Lynch cuz echoes are wolfy

Even after Benny's post there was still a little discussion about lynching boog today (you bolded him yourself). I just proved, using logic, why it's best to wait until tomorrow to make that decision, so we can stop wasting time on that discussion.

I don't see how tlr is so confident in scenario 1 of his two scenarios above. It doesn't make sense. Sure its possible, but why likely and why so confident. This bothers me and makes me suspicious of tlr who would also likely be a day one nom in his second scenario.

I like TLR's theories, and regardless of whether you think option 1 is more likely than option 2, I think option 1 is the better route. I think it would be even better to look to see who fit's TLR's option 1 description (playing differently this game than normal), and also playing differently now on day 2 than on day 1 (making them more likely to have changed roles overnight).

Reason why I prefer playing to the option 1 strategy -- if we pursue option 2, that means that we have to include considering lynching strong/active players today, and I agree with your other posts that we should be looking for good targets in the players that are less active (since they are providing less value to the village).

This is too small a game for the wolves to risk the seer getting an extra look up. Fact is, if we lynch a villager today, vig shoots a villager, wolves nom, then tomorrow we lynch another villager, that's game over, that's how small this game is. So wolves cannot leave an outed seer for one more night than needs be, it's just too risky.

lynch boog, then we find out if he was the lost wolf, if not then we worry about it. Hunting for the lost wolf now is just dumb, we probably already have him.

And for those with OCD... lynch BooG690

Grunching thread but I just want to say the wolves are either soulreaders or just got very lucky with their night 1 kill, at least we very likely know BooG is a wolf now.

Reading through thread from the start of today.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

I don't see how tlr is so confident in scenario 1 of his two scenarios above. It doesn't make sense. Sure its possible, but why likely and why so confident. This bothers me and makes me suspicious of tlr who would also likely be a day one nom in his second scenario.

Well, I am using a kind of black magic called math, if they randomly picked someone they had a 1 in 10 chance to get the lost wolf; they got the lost wolf, the other 90% probability is case 2 - they figured out the lost wolf

Your magical mathematical model does not take all the information into account and is far to simplistic.

We have an easy day 3 wolf no matter what, so im just gonna let this play out. lynch flomo

Fuck. I die tomorrow as a too likely villager to be allowed to survive.

We need to let this shit play itself out

Boog's role will be known sooner than later, even when we do nothing. The wolves would have made a huge fucking gamble in not nomming Boog if he wasn't already on their team, and if he is the seer, each day extra that they don't nom him is an even bigger mistake. If he's a wolf and he keeps not getting nommed, we can still just wait until the real seer role is eventually known. We need to just ignore all this shit because it plays itself out perfectly

If Boog is the seer, Dan is a wolf obv. If Boog is not the seer, Dan is probably a villager, and flomo is a good wolf target. The whole thing plays itself out long before the end of the game, so we don't have to push it and potentially make terrible choices

If I had to lynch anybody from this thing it would be Boog. Because LOL at the idea that wolves aren't nomming an outed seer, LOL at the lost wolf then getting converted. I already said Boog is the lost wolf the overwhelming majority of the time here, but we still shouldn't act on it because it plays itself out just dandy soon enough

mattc is still a fantastic lynch. If he's not lynched before endgame, then he's gonna live to the very end. He's not engaged enough for somebody who should be at endgame, only has six damn posts so far, one or two of which are actual content. Like it or not, lynching him now is pretty much a necessity

In this game we don't have any room to maneuver, conversely the wolves haven't got much chance for fps, this game will be over by day 4/5.

BooG is a wolf, for the wolf team to leave him alone as the seer would be bad and given the experience of everyone playing that isn't going to happen.

Since we are so short of people killing an extremely likely wolf tonight is better than waiting until tomorrow to confirm BooG unless we get a slam dunk wolf today.

Missed wufs post before mine, that's a very good case for just leaving BooG where he is for now.

Rereading day 1 now.

Hmmm didn't glean much from day 1 other than Bigred and flomo can't both be wolves due stuff at the very end of the day.

Regarding the lost wolf I think we can narrow it down somewhat but I don't think it will be helpful to the village to talk about it because it can give away too much info to the wolves right now.

No BID or mattc16 posts at all so far today. With 7 votes needed to lynch, it would be pretty damn easy for the wolves to bum rush one along with whoever is the wolf out of Dan and Boog and still keep two wolves well hidden.

If either of these guys continues to be MIA and goes into the vote with 5 standing votes due to non-participation, I'll say right now that anyone voting for either is damn, damn wolfy. Do not vote for Matt or BID if you're a villager, not until they have posted 5 times.

Scoreboard!

2 votes for DanAronG (BooG690, flomo)
1 votes for BooG690 (OngBonga)
1 votes for BankItDrew (TLR)
1 votes for mattc16 (wufwugy)
1 votes for flomo (JKDS)
7 votes for Nobody (Hoopy, bigred, NightGizmo, mattc16, DanAronG, BennyLaRue, BankItDrew)

The only reason to not lynch mattc is if we can get him modkilled and replaced with somebody who will provide value in endgame. I'm simply sticking to the strategy that would have won the last game, the strategy that I screwed up. Had I shot a low content player instead of gizmo, and had I not pushed a Gator lynch, the final day would have been easy as pancakes with the wolves being outnumbered by people who knew what they were doing

If low content players are not wolves, the bullet still has to be bitten and they have to be lynched. Obviously, if they can get modkilled instead, it's better. But the reason they have to die is because the village can only win by surviving an endgame where wolves almost equal their numbers. Of all the village wins I've seen, only the one when Rilla rampaged all the wolves in early game didn't go down to the wire

Wolves bumrushing somebody would be awesome because they would become apparent

But yeah if you guys don't like a mattc lynch, that's fine. I was super pissed when I smashed through a Gator-villager lynch last time (I can only imagine it pissed him off too), so I'm not interested in doing it again. But I'm sticking with matt unless something else comes up

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Wolves bumrushing somebody would be awesome because they would become apparent

Not really. If your vote on Matt stands until end of day and he doesn't post, only one last-minute vote from Boog/Dana will get him lynched. If you're really a villager nothing became apparent, did it?

I advise you to rescind your vote. TLR, you too. It sort of sucks that the 5-post minimum vote actually works against the village but it does. It could allow the wolves the ability to thin villager numbers with minimal effort and minimal info given away.

The absence of BID and matt both makes them look wolfier and makes it so that we can't vote for them at the same time.

Rilla won't be putting up a 24 hour limit until tomorrow at earliest (cuz it's the weekend), then we'll have another whole day to figure stuff out. Majority lynches only. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Rilla's OP didn't and I don't recall him saying anything about a vote threshold creating a lynch even after the 24 hour warning.

Matt is pretty much the only person I want to lynch today. There might be a couple others, but I'm solid on my idea that the village cannot win an endgame with too many low content players. It was a huge damn mistake last game.

I would prefer matt be modkilled, but sounds like Rilla isn't looking to clarify what it will take to get that done, and by now it would be too much of a risk IMO since we would have to rely on him not posting for several days yet remaining alive, then the village will be stuck in a shitty spot in the late game where a low content player is still alive, and he's either going to become a wasted-lynch villager or not lynched but then manipulated by the wolves

Anyways, I think only majority lynches happen in this game, so we can vote for whoever we want and it will still get switched up in the last 12 hours of day play

The only argument I can see for why lynching the low content players like matt is bad is if it didin't actually matter if he makes it to endgame as a villager. That would have to be weighed against the likelyhood of him being a low content wolf and how bad lynching a higher content villager would be

But if comparing this game to the last one, if instead of lynching Gator, we had lynched lolz or stax (both very low content players), the village would have won that game so damn easily. The problem was my stupid ass thought every wolf was in the top bracket of content so it was a now or never situation

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Rilla won't be putting up a 24 hour limit until tomorrow at earliest (cuz it's the weekend), then we'll have another whole day to figure stuff out. Majority lynches only. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Rilla's OP didn't and I don't recall him saying anything about a vote threshold creating a lynch even after the 24 hour warning.

I didn't say anything about a vote threshold.

5 votes for inactivity + yours + Boog/Dada at the very end of 24 hours = majority

Your failure to grasp this makes you ultra-wolfy. It's as if you can't wrap your head around the fact that your wolfy plan has gone awry.

lynch wufwugy

There is no mandate that you play in the best interests of the team you've been assigned. Such a rule would prevent half of you from ever playing.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

There is no mandate that you play in the best interests of the team you've been assigned. Such a rule would prevent half of you from ever playing.

hahhhhh

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

I didn't say anything about a vote threshold.

5 votes for inactivity + yours + Boog/Dada at the very end of 24 hours = majority

Your failure to grasp this makes you ultra-wolfy. It's as if you can't wrap your head around the fact that your wolfy plan has gone awry.

lynch wufwugy

It won't matter until at least after 24 hour limit is called

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

If anyone targets the seer and the bodyguard dies in his place, the death notice will reflect this detail.

I'm going to make an unpopular decision here and I'm going to walk back on what I said.

If the bodyguard dies in place of the seer, the death notice will only inform you that the bodyguard is dead.

I'll explain my reasoning after the game. Simply put, I answered this question before considering the implications.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

It won't matter until at least after 24 hour limit is called

No vote really does, but unless you withdraw your vote, we can't know your intention.

My intention is for low content players to die pretty much regardless of whether they're wolves or villagers. When low content players reach the endgame, the village always loses

My hope is that we don't have to lynch players like mattc if they're villagers, but I don't think there is much option without a really good reason

Originally Posted by wufwugy

hahhhhh

Originally Posted by wufwugy

My intention is for low content players to die pretty much regardless of whether they're wolves or villagers. When low content players reach the endgame, the village always loses

Since it's 9-4 right now, we only have two lynches before it could be 5-4 and therefore endgame. We really can't waste one of those on a mere non-contributor.

We need to go for a wolf today.

While we do need to go for a wolf today, the only way for the village to win is by killing every wolf, not just the first or second or third

The village is forever stuck in a situation where low content players that are not lynched or modkilled end up being pivotal votes on final days

Sorry I've been MIA this weekend. I was really getting into this game too.

I agree with TLR and Benny's logic regarding boog as or not as the seer. I don't agree with TLR's logic behind lynching me though, because, well, he didn't provide any reasons other than the fact that I'm playing differently this game.

Pretty sure I was a villager last game and lost. Why in the fuck would I play the same?

It seems easy to me.

lynching boog:
1 - he's the seer, we fucked up
2 - he's not the seer but is a regular villager just trying to buy time for some stupid reason, we fucked up
3 - he's a wolf, we rock

lynching Dan:
1 - he's a wolf, boog is probably the seer, we rock
2 - he's a villager, boogs a wolf, we lynch boog and we go one for one

lynch DanAronG

outside chance that boog is a regular villager trying to stay alive and we lynch both him and Dan, we fucked up

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Matt is pretty much the only person I want to lynch today. There might be a couple others, but I'm solid on my idea that the village cannot win an endgame with too many low content players. It was a huge damn mistake last game.

A light bulb just went off in my head about why it's good to lynch low content players. I kind of had an idea but now it really makes sense.