Werewolf Blank

Originally Posted by DanAronG

It would be hilarious if wuf and benny are wolves and bid and flomo are seer and bodyguard. Nobody else outing could possibly make sense.

I dream of being such an amazing wolf.

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

I dream of being such an amazing wolf.

That would actually be one way to play wolf. Have as many fake outs as possible, and play in a not so much smart way but a fun way that could win in a convoluted and crazy fashion

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Thank you for confirming that you are a wolf

With the day almost over, I can confirm TLR is a villager. I'm glad to have everyone's candid thoughts on him today - I think it's important to keep as many discussion topics open as possible.

Any parting comments?

Awesome, I knew you looked up him or JKDS

But now JKDS becomes a high lynch priority

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Thank you for confirming that you are a wolf

Because you have said numerous times that Flomo and Hoopy are suspicious and/or should die, and both have almost always been in your wolf camp except curiously at the end of lynch order. As a villager, you would consider my logic here. But you're not a villager, you want BID to die, and you don't want Flomo and/or Hoopy targeted

You are also the trickiest wolf in the business. Gator may be the hardest to spot/kill, but nobody hedges and pulls tricks the way you do. Remember on my last day alive in the WnV game when you bolded your fellow Phillywolf "just to see who would come in after you", then rescinded immediately after I bolded him? Yep. Your tricks do show holes, albeit rarely. You have thought that Flomo and Hoopy are good targets all game, but now when the bodyguard makes a genuine and strong case for them, they're no longer that important....






I was typing this up in between when TLR posted

FWIW, as good a lynch as BID may appear to be (he's equally as bad a lynch as he is good, which is what makes him BID I guess), I hope you guys can go over the stuff I just mentioned about Bigred being deaded due to his future target. I think that's fucking legit, and why he deaded instead of me.

If you were Wolflomo, you would have nom'd him. Bigred was gonna shoot Flomo like 80% of the time if he survived, and if Flomo is a wolf, this would be worse than letting Benny get another lookup. It's possible this isn't technically true, but not too many would be able to figure out why, and would rather just go the route of keeping each wolf alive


Actually, since I said that last sentence, this makes me think that the wolves are trying to keep themselves alive in as full of force as possible. This strategy stuck to would mean that BID is rarely a wolf and Flomo (perhaps Hoopy instead or as well) is usually a wolf



So here's me having made what I think is an uber case against TLR (and Flomo and/or Hoopy). My finals are now TLR Flomo Hoopy. But my problem is that I go overboard with my reads on strong players, so I'm not gonna push for a TLR lynch. You guys are gonna have to put in the legwork and expound upon or discard my thoughts after I'm dead. Today I want to go after Flomo and Hoopy. Maybe Benny should be The Decider on who he wants dead in BID Flomo Hoopy, but unless something changes, I think Flomo and Hoopy are much better wolf targets. But BID is always a "good" target because he's so damn hard to handle and understand.

The short story of BID is as such: does a ton of legit wolfy stuff, but also explains some of those things well e.g. his super fast post being from notebook text, his gf making his sig up; Ong thinks he's just regular BID, he's confusing as fuck and people are not interested in having to deal with him being confusing as fuck in late game; he always *could* be a wolf, and nobody wants to let him win, and it seems everybody wants him dead.

The final point *could* be the most important. Would the wolves sacrifice him? They might, but only a minority of the time IMO

1. Hoopy and Flomo are still high on my wolf list, but BID is ranked higher (as is Dan)
2. Just because you are the bodyguard, does not mean you theories are autmatically correct, I was saying why I think Bigred has died, it makes as much sense if not more sense then your thories
3. It takes very little for you to be very decisive and sure of your views, if I am a crafty wolf as you think I am why the hell would I post my theory when the vote count is going for BID and the seer is going after BID, when there is one vote vs Flomo, dont you think that as a wolf I would at least wait for the seer input before I would post such a thing
4. As Benny said, and as I said a day before, killing BID is a win-win for the village, since if he is a villager we simply cannot let him be the deciding voice again at endgame

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

With the day almost over, I can confirm TLR is a villager. I'm glad to have everyone's candid thoughts on him today - I think it's important to keep as many discussion topics open as possible.

Any parting comments?

Great, and I just spent time answering Wuf...
FWIW it would have been better IMO if you kept that info till the end of the day tomorrow, to get some more discussion tomorrow.

JKDS is the lost wolf.

The evidence is compelling.

Boog was a wolf. Who would he nom on day one? JKDS whenever possible. He hates him (in a friendly way). I know this, because he also hated (in a friendly way) Dranger, and when we were wolves together boog made a major case for nomming dranger on day 1. I talked him out of it and it turned out I shouldn't as he was the seer, but that's irelevent.

Also, he's a strong player, and you always get rid of strong players.

rescing bankidrew lynch jkds

It's obvious, please lynch this wolf.

Also, for this to make sense, Boog needs to be one of the stronger wolves in order to force his will, which ties in with hoopy/flomo as his wolf buddies.

EZgame

Also, as a wolf, I lynch benny this game, every time, without fail, and Boog would not convionce me to go for JKDS instead because I know Boog's thought process is biased and I therefore dismiss it somewhat (as in not nomming dranger as explained above), although I think Boog is a good player fwiw, he's just a little predictable.

Fuck me, I thought TLR was a wolf. My second guess was flomo but it looks like there's an 'ezgame' lynch on JKDS. What should I do Benny?

BTW, I WON'T FUCK OVER THE VILLAGE THIS TIME IF I ALWAYS DO WHAT YOU WANT ME TO DO DURRRRRRRRRRRR

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Fuck me, I thought TLR was a wolf. My second guess was flomo but it looks like there's an 'ezgame' lynch on JKDS. What should I do Benny?

BTW, I WON'T FUCK OVER THE VILLAGE THIS TIME IF I ALWAYS DO WHAT YOU WANT ME TO DO DURRRRRRRRRRRR

Benny will be dead in two days. Then what do you do? lol

I have no idea. I thought he was the seer and wouldn't die unless by the jaws of a wolf.

In spite of thinking you are a villager I'm tempted to vote for you again.

I take back everything I just said.

Originally Posted by TLR

Great, and I just spent time answering Wuf...
FWIW it would have been better IMO if you kept that info till the end of the day tomorrow, to get some more discussion tomorrow.

Well, I'll have another lookup tomorrow to not talk about.

I'd like to get wuf's thoughts before he dies, knowing as much as I know. We will likely not have the pleasure of his company tomorrow.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Fuck me, I thought TLR was a wolf. My second guess was flomo but it looks like there's an 'ezgame' lynch on JKDS. What should I do Benny?

Maybe aroooo? That would be helpful.

This is why I'm a villager:

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

With the day almost over, I can confirm TLR is a villager. I'm glad to have everyone's candid thoughts on him today - I think it's important to keep as many discussion topics open as possible.

Remember when I posted this at the beginning?:

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

TLR -8
Also very strategic and understands the special roles well and the significance of their timing (this is by far my biggest flaw). He snap called on the lynch BID wagon which makes me think he's a villager. TLR, you're smart, but you lynched too early. A quote from him early on: "(cliff notes on BID play - dont read the thread, throw in random lynches and sometimes a post made up of random words)." This is your reason to lynch me. Take it back or else give the hammer to the wolves very early on. Due to >50% of your posts made reference to lynching me because I am a useless villager, I think you're a villager.
...
cliffs:
...TLR is playing like rilla did last game.

Dan with the last minute attempt to derail! Classic wolf move.

If BID is indeed the wolf that replaces hoopy or flomo, that post would be perfect, would it not?

Oops, forgot about NG, he is just as plausible.
Shit, that makes this tricky now.

My updated thoughts:

The following are villagers:
BankItDrew (ldo!)
OngBonga
wufwugy
BennyLaRue - He said he was the seer and everyone believed him. Then Dan comes along and is all "what if he's not the seer?" and now I'm questioning humanity.
TLR - He was my #4 wolf until Benny said he was a confirmed villager.

If Ong OR Benny are wolves, I quit forever.

IMO the following are very wolfy:

Hoopy
JKDS
DanAronG


And I'm leaning towards villager but still not convinced yet with:

NightGizmo
flomo

Where did these two players go? Gone for the weekend?

Dan seems wolfier with every post he makes.
I am off to sleep, can someone make a vote count to see where we stand and make sure there are no votes for someone because he is under 5 votes?

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

My updated thoughts:

The following are villagers:
BankItDrew (ldo!)
OngBonga
wufwugy
BennyLaRue - He said he was the seer and everyone believed him. Then Dan comes along and is all "what if he's not the seer?" and now I'm questioning humanity.
TLR - He was my #4 wolf until Benny said he was a confirmed villager.

If Ong OR Benny are wolves, I quit forever.

IF there is one thing in this game you can be sure about is that Ong is a villager, if you go with the worst case scenario of Benny and Wuf both being wolves then they have to confirm a villager to get some creditability

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

IMO the following are very wolfy:

Hoopy
JKDS
DanAronG


And I'm leaning towards villager but still not convinced yet with:

NightGizmo
flomo

Where did these two players go? Gone for the weekend?

Once BID is confirmed as wolf we can be 99% sure there is one wolf in each of those groups he mentioned, probably Dan or Hoopy in group one and Flomo in group 2

TLR don't be rediculous. I may be wrong, you may disagree and I may be annoying as when I wanna talk werewolf, if there's nobody to post back and forth with me I talk to myself, but the way I have just posted is anything but wolfy.

Originally Posted by TLR

Once BID is confirmed as wolf we can be 99% sure there is one wolf in each of those groups he mentioned, probably Dan or Hoopy in group one and Flomo in group 2

99% sure? Really? The more I play with you the less I value your wolf hunting abilities.

Originally Posted by TLR

IF there is one thing in this game you can be sure about is that Ong is a villager, if you go with the worst case scenario of Benny and Wuf both being wolves then they have to confirm a villager to get some creditability

You don't see anyone else outing, do you?

So....Dan, BID and flomo are the wolves, ldo.

You guys want to just concede, save us the time?

You need someone else in that list imo

Just give it up guys, its over. Arrooooo for us pretty plz. Everyone knows its fun to arroooooooo

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

You need someone else in that list imo

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

read the thread benny:

IMO the following are very wolfy:

Hoopy
JKDS
DanAronG

So the unknowns are BID, Dan, JKDS, Flomo, and Hoopy. Out of that group, I prefer a BID lynch simply because he is becoming increasingly erratic in his postings (we're a week and a half into the game and you don't know the rules?), which will make him dangerous as either a villager or a wolf later in the game. Basically, what Benny said.

lynch BankItDrew

I just looked into it and now understand the rules. I've even come up with some interesting tactics.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I just looked into it and now understand the rules. I've even come up with some interesting tactics.

Please share, what tactics?

No, wolf.

AAAaaaaasRRRRRooooooooooooo!

April Fool's!

With TLR being a villager, BID is a stronger target than I had previously thought.

He keeps saying he is not a wolf over and over, actually too much.

Dan, bid and jkds are the remaining wolves,
hoppy could replace bid pretty easily though.

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

Please share, what tactics?

He meant tacos.

I keep trying to come up with interesting ideas, but it still keeps boiling down to having to lynch the most difficult to understand player. Whether BID understands it or not, he has to go

I think JKDS or Dana are the lost wolf, and one or both of Flomo and Hoopy are wolves

If Benny snags a villager tonight, there will be four known villagers and three wolves in a group of four unknown villagers. With this in mind, I am okay with this strategy:

Gizmo is always a villager. Benny looks up JKDS or Dana tonight, one is always a wolf and the other is always a villager. So if he snags the wolf or the villager, it doesn't matter because the role of the other is confirmed. And the final two wolves are Flomo and Hoopy

So after BID and I are dead the village will look as such

Confirmed villagers:

Benny
Ong
TLR

"Assumed villager":

Gizmo

Benny look up - one is a villager, one is a wolf:

JKDS/Dana

Always being lynched:

Flomo
Hoopy




If we can *assume* that Gizmo and one of JKDS/Dana are villagers, this is then locked.

I think this methodology works the best because the village is at the mercy of its content. We pretty much have to keep lynching the weakest players until the end, because if we don't, then the weak player will be a deciding vote. And I don't mean "weakest" so much as hardest to understand, hardest to find common ground with, least attentive, etc

If Gizmo is a wolf, congratulations, IMO you were handed a victory. The reason for this is merely the structure of the game in that we only have so many lynches and we HAVE TO use those on players not named Gizmo. Similar applies to if JKDS and/or Dana are wolves because we simply CANNOT be lynching them until perhaps a make-or-break time comes. BID, Flomo, and Hoopy are too much of liabilities now

With enough lynches, the village would go in this order

BID
Flomo
Hoopy
Gizmo
Dana/JKDS

This is merely by order of content, ability to be understood by the other villagers, probability of being a hiding wolf, etc. But what this means is that if the wolves are not in that order, the village has to play "incorrectly" in order to find them.

That's why I'm cool with calling Gizmo and one of Dana/JKDS lock villagers. That's the most theoretically correct order of lynching/methodology, as far as I see it. The results may be different here, they will sometimes be different. But I am okay to losing to a wolf team where two of Gizmo/Dana/JKDS are wolves

So, yeah, that's my point. If there are two wolves in Gizmo/Dana/JKDS, then village has to play "incorrectly" to find them

rescind flomo lynch BankitDrew

I really think Flomo and/or Hoopy killed Bigred for scaredy-cats-of-getting-gat reasons



To be clear, my thoughts in this game often come down to "let's play correctly, and if the wolves are not found, they were dealt a better hand - variance happens etc etc". So I don't have much problem losing to a wolf team when the wolves are not a part of the must-lynch category. This, however, is not a fun way to play, and is almost never the way it's played

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Benny looks up JKDS or Dana tonight, one is always a wolf and the other is always a villager. So if he snags the wolf or the villager, it doesn't matter because the role of the other is confirmed.

That's all good stuff except I'm not quite clear on the above. How are you seeing those two connected?

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

He meant tacos.

Not sharing your tacos is really wolfy

Lots to catch up on, had a glance at recent posts but I'm tired now so will read the entire thread tomorrow. rescind TLR, I'm delighted to be wrong on this one, he's the perfect person to have on my side once benny and wuf are gone. TLR, you're gonna be a bitch to spot when you are a wolf. I'll be going through your posts tomorrow without suspicion, this will help me immensely. Great look up benny.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

99% sure? Really? The more I play with you the less I value your wolf hunting abilities.

This stands out as a particularly wolfy comment, made before benny confirmed TLR. Dan replaces TLR as my prime suspect, JKDS has given me no reason to think he's a villager but I was wrong about TLR so will give him the benefit of the doubt when I read through.

As for drew, I stand by my read that he's a villager, but I understand why he has to go. I'm giving my vote to benny and TLR here, I'm obviously not getting a great feel for this game at this stage so I have to accept I might be wrong about drew, and I'm not going to be able to save him any longer, so I'm gonna chip in and lynch BankItDrew because this is what benny, TLR and wuf want, that's three confirmed villagers to one so I bow to democracy. His role confirmed will help us tomorrow.

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

That's all good stuff except I'm not quite clear on the above. How are you seeing those two connected?

I'm kinda not suggesting that. I was illustrating a picture where if there are two wolves in the group of Gizmo/Dana/JKDS, then the village has to sacrifice not lynching one of BID/Flomo/Hoopy. If there is one wolf in the group of Gizmo/Dana/JKDS, it is more easy to play as if it's either Dana or JKDS. Gizmo is merely the least likely wolf and the most acceptable to lose to out of these three. He's sitting right in the sweet spot where lynching him is pretty much always a mistake, even when he's a wolf. He's not doing anything wrong, there are enough players who need to be lynched before him to win him the game before the lynchings get to him, and I just assume he's less often a wolf than one of Dana/JKDS

When you lynch people by order of wolfiness and the need to keep content and ability to find wolves high, Gizmo is the safest to consider a villager, then one of JKDS/Dana is the second safest

So basically, after today, if there are two wolves in the Gizmo/Dana/JKDS group and they win, gg they got lucky; if the village wins in that scenario, you guys went full-on baller mode and figured out why one of Hoopy/Flomo is not a wolf. If there are even three wolves in Dana/JKDS/Gizmo group, then the village has forgo lynching two of BID/Flomo/Hoopy, and that's just crazy talk

Just checking in before I go to bed, I made a mistake, dan did not make that comment before benny outed, it's obv important I admit that mistake. I've had a long day and I need sleep.

I didn't want to reveal myself this early in the game but I suppose I have to now.

I'm the seer.

lol, anyone else want to fake out as bodyguard? Dan? Maybe yet another seer?

Wuf, you might live tonight. Seems they're going for epicness.

I can't confirm that BID is the real seer. I'm still the bodyguard, but I was just joshin' about Benny being the seer. He's actually the lost wolf