Vanilla Werewolf gameplay thread

[OngBonga]

I will donate £5 to charity if the wolves nom SDM.

[wufwugy]

Daven got dat snarlface up in his grill and JV got dat AR-15 blasty blast out the back of his skull. Both are villagers

The Living

bid
ong
sdm
donkbee
keith
jyms
rong
gizmo
gator
hoopy
rilla
luco

The Dead

ur mom
bugrud
gabe
warpe
tlr
daven
jv

The Village

5 villagers
1 every night seer
1 every night angel who can't target the same player on subsequent nights
1 even night vig that can't save bullets and starts firing on Night 2
4 wolves

Tis Day Thrizzle up in this hizzy. Day Thrizzle ends in 96 hours, 7:00PM PST Monday. With 12 players it's 7 to lynchizzle

[jyms]

Really Vig? JV??? What the fuck are you paying attention to?

[jyms]

Sorry that was a little mean, but I defended the vig the right to use his shot wehen everyone was saying it was too risky, So you plunk JV on what grounds?

[OngBonga]

Let's all say "what the fuck vig" one after another so the wolves can easily figure out who the vig is.

[GatorJH]

what the fuck vig?

[jyms]

Better targets than JV,

Me
Ong
SDM
Gator
CB
BID
Rilla
TLR

and on and on

[OngBonga]

anyone else get the feeling that the wolves are happily mooching along while we lynch the easy targets?
downside of not lynching those easy targets is that by avoiding the lynch they become easy lynch targets next day. If we'd not lynched bigred yesterday in a late wagon derail to warpe then i suspect i would of been among those baying for his blood today. Same if we don't lynch sdm today unfortunately.

speaking of easy targets, how is drew managing to get almost zero heat so far?
here's my feel on everyone

bid - tending wolf purely by virtue of not getting any wagon traction
ong - tending wolf as per my previous posts
bigred - dead village
gabe - dead village
sdm - i've got no idea, he's got to go in the next day or two regardless. Too much of a distraction otherwise. Terrible if a villager. If he's villager then wolves aren't going to nom him unless they somehow read him special.
warpe - dead village
donkbee - afk, could easily be a wolf drifting. Dunno if she's be missing in action as a villager.
keith - tending village
jv - tending village, needs to post more
jyms - I'm confused. I always think jyms is a lock wolf. So me thinking he's wolf doesn't mean anything.
rong - nil content, needs to post
gizmo - i'm confident i'll have a lock read on him a day or two from now.
gator - gut says village. Reality says he's crafty and could be anything.
daven - village obv
hoopy - feels nil content
rilla - initially thought wolf, now think villager.
tlr - drifting, villager
luco - wolf

ja, wolves = bid/ong/luco/??

except i'd put no money on it...

I assume this is what got daven dead. Wolves must be seer hunting n2, otherwise they suck.

There's two seer hints in here. First of all he backs off rilla, which might suggest that the wolves thought daven had looked at rilla n1. This would make rilla look very much the villager. Also he tells us that he'll have a lock read on gizmo in a day or two, which might hint that he intended to look at him later.

daven kill tells me rilla is a villager.

jack kill tells me the vig is a retard.

I think we're in good shape here though. If the seer can survive tonight, then claiming tomorrow makes sense, along with angel and vig. Angel protects the seer, that means seer will have 4 results to tell us, and if all are alive, that's gonna win it.

We should start voting tactically to ensure seer lookups are not lynched.

lynch bee

[BankItDrew]

If anyone can provide a good argument against what ong just said, please enlighten us. Otherwise, I'm with him.

What the fuck vig?

[StillDeadMoney]

rilla is the vig. Don't be so hard on him.

[donkbee]

I don't like her making a mess of the VC before voting TLR. I don't believe for a minute that bee has problems with 2+3.

When I went back and reread the thread more closely, I realized I somehow missed like an entire half page of posts somehow.

lol thongbee is courtney's new name itt.

lol :'(

I'm seeing similarities between her wolf game and this one.

sample size of 2 wtf!

Also he tells us that he'll have a lock read on gizmo in a day or two, which might hint that he intended to look at him later.

I really don't think a seer would ever say this?

[donkbee]

There's two seer hints in here. First of all he backs off rilla, which might suggest that the wolves thought daven had looked at rilla n1. This would make rilla look very much the villager.....daven kill tells me rilla is a villager

also this doesn't really make much sense because at the start of day 2, daven still liked a rilla lynch. I mean I guess they could have thought that daven was leaving seer clues but that's just so bad. So if you think this, I guess pick the dumbest people in the group and maybe they are the wolves for thinking those are actually clues.

So you're saying I'm dumb

Sigh

[StillDeadMoney]

thinking long term here.

end of day 3: 7v 4w villager is hung
end of night 3: 6v 4w villager is eaten
end of day 4: 5v 4w villager is hung
end of night 4: 3v 4w villager is eaten and another is shot

The village is rapidly running out of time.

Wolves are going to keep me alive until the end of the game, guaranteed.

If we start day 4 and all of our specials are alive, here is what I suggest we do.

- everyone is going to reveal their true role. The wolves will probably lie and say they're villagers
- the seer hopefully has a few scanned people left alive. The seer can out all of those people and their true roles
- best case scenario, all of the seer's scan targets are left alive and are all villagers, so the village has 6 confirmed villagers, so the wolves will lose immediately because they would be the 4 remaining players

It would be a last ditch effort but it would greatly increase the probability that the village lynches or shoots a wolf. If we are lucky, it's a mathematical win regardless of whatever smokescreens the wolves put up.

[StillDeadMoney]

Better targets than JV,

TLR

and on and on

TLR died yesterday.

[StillDeadMoney]

I think we're in good shape here though. If the seer can survive tonight, then claiming tomorrow makes sense, along with angel and vig. Angel protects the seer, that means seer will have 4 results to tell us, and if all are alive, that's gonna win it.

I didn't even read this when I posted my suggestion to basically do the same thing. lol.

[OngBonga]

Oh hey cutiebee.

Sample size of 2 indeed. Sorry it's all I have. I'm too lazy to look for your other old games, feel free to link me some if you can be bothered. Not that it makes that much difference. We're at the point now where we want to be lynching people who the seer is unlikely to have looked at. I'd say you're amongst the least likely. If we lynch someone who the seer has looked at, we lose a confirmed villager when he claims.

I also think you're a wolf because that TLR miscount and vote was suspect, so I'm still happy to lynch you. But nicely of course.

And I think you're right about a seer not saying that about gizmo. I'm not a wolf who thought he was the seer. But I guarantee the wolves thought he was a good shot at seer, otherwise it makes no sense killing him.

[OngBonga]

also this doesn't really make much sense because at the start of day 2, daven still liked a rilla lynch. I mean I guess they could have thought that daven was leaving seer clues but that's just so bad. So if you think this, I guess pick the dumbest people in the group and maybe they are the wolves for thinking those are actually clues.

So you're saying I'm dumb

Sigh

I don't think you're dumb. I think you're a wolf.

[OngBonga]

You're right though, he was still disliking rilla at the start of d2. It's 6am, I need sleep, I'll look at it tomorrow.

[donkbee]

After reading this thread again, the people I'm most unsure about are Luco, bankitdrew, and jyms. Luco I'm not sure why I'm confused, I just can't figure him out. I wonder about bankitdrew because on one hand he keeps piggybacking off other people's posts, but on another he seems like he's trying to figure out what's actually best for the village at all times. jyms confuses me because he says that he won't answer questions, which is obv optimal for a wolf. But what real wolf would actually say that? If he is a wolf and said it, it's pretty ballsy. But if he won't answer questions, he's unwilling to give info, which is perfect for a wolf. And he has such a to-the-point and fuck-you-I-don't-care-what-you-think-about-me tone to all his posts that he would be the perfect candidate to actually say that as a wolf and get away with it.

[rong]

Lol vig. Is you sdm?

Agree that wolves must have been special hunting. Otherwise Daven makes no sense.
Still alive last night were jv, Rilla and gator.
Wolves must be pretty sure of themselves to leave all 3 of those alive.

I imagine at least one of them is a wolf. If all 3 were Villagers I can't see any wolf team not killing one of them.

Gator would be my choice. Courtie is a lousy choice imo. But if we are looking for a likely wolf who is unlikely to have been looked up, I suggest Hoopy.

[Luco]

Right now I'm most suspicious of ong and drew.

Ong is not himself. He's been quick to dismiss his inconsistencies as ong gonna ong, but I'm concerned that it might be indicative that he isn't thinking as critically about the game as usual. I sense that he's less definitive in his opinions on people this game, preferring 'x could be a wolf / villager' to his usual 'x is a wolf / villager'. It concerns me.

BID - he was a villager two games ago and I was a wolf. He was untouchable, a cleared lock villager by early d2, simply by posting lots of thoughts and being himself. He's definitely less involved this game, I kinda want others to go and read diffusion and give me their opinions here because I may be reading too much into it.

Thoughts?

[Keith]

anyone else get the feeling that the wolves are happily mooching along while we lynch the easy targets?
downside of not lynching those easy targets is that by avoiding the lynch they become easy lynch targets next day. If we'd not lynched bigred yesterday in a late wagon derail to warpe then i suspect i would of been among those baying for his blood today. Same if we don't lynch sdm today unfortunately.

speaking of easy targets, how is drew managing to get almost zero heat so far?
here's my feel on everyone

bid - tending wolf purely by virtue of not getting any wagon traction
ong - tending wolf as per my previous posts
bigred - dead village
gabe - dead village
sdm - i've got no idea, he's got to go in the next day or two regardless. Too much of a distraction otherwise. Terrible if a villager. If he's villager then wolves aren't going to nom him unless they somehow read him special.
warpe - dead village
donkbee - afk, could easily be a wolf drifting. Dunno if she's be missing in action as a villager.
keith - tending village
jv - tending village, needs to post more
jyms - I'm confused. I always think jyms is a lock wolf. So me thinking he's wolf doesn't mean anything.
rong - nil content, needs to post
gizmo - i'm confident i'll have a lock read on him a day or two from now.
gator - gut says village. Reality says he's crafty and could be anything.
daven - village obv
hoopy - feels nil content
rilla - initially thought wolf, now think villager.
tlr - drifting, villager
luco - wolf

ja, wolves = bid/ong/luco/??

except i'd put no money on it...

I assume this is what got daven dead. Wolves must be seer hunting n2, otherwise they suck.

There's two seer hints in here. First of all he backs off rilla, which might suggest that the wolves thought daven had looked at rilla n1. This would make rilla look very much the villager. Also he tells us that he'll have a lock read on gizmo in a day or two, which might hint that he intended to look at him later.

daven kill tells me rilla is a villager.

jack kill tells me the vig is a retard.

I think we're in good shape here though. If the seer can survive tonight, then claiming tomorrow makes sense, along with angel and vig. Angel protects the seer, that means seer will have 4 results to tell us, and if all are alive, that's gonna win it.

We should start voting tactically to ensure seer lookups are not lynched.

lynch bee

so in 40 minute after your previous post you've found the post that likely got Daven killed but you said multiple times that you are too lazy to look up courties previous games yet as soon as the wolf kill is announced you'd have us believe you went looking for reasons that Daven got killed? Last game we killed rilla because he pretty much had targeted me, gabe and gator the first two days. Daven had you down as a wolf. Coincidence?. you knew that someone would find that post and post it so you tried to get some credit for posting it.

then you say we should vote tactically to avoid hitting a seer lookup ....yet lynch courtie who has been low profile and could therefore have been a seer lookup

[Luco]

Lol vig. Is you sdm?

Agree that wolves must have been special hunting. Otherwise Daven makes no sense.
Still alive last night were jv, Rilla and gator.
Wolves must be pretty sure of themselves to leave all 3 of those alive.

I imagine at least one of them is a wolf. If all 3 were Villagers I can't see any wolf team not killing one of them.

Gator would be my choice. Courtie is a lousy choice imo. But if we are looking for a likely wolf who is unlikely to have been looked up, I suggest Hoopy.

rong, if you agree that the wolves were special hunting then they are de facto not acting on threats. How can you agree that they're special hunting but then immediately go on to make conjecture about rilla and gator because they weren't nommed?

[Luco]

I imagine at least one of them is a wolf. If all 3 were Villagers I can't see any wolf team not killing one of them.

Any wolf team that thought daven was the seer would have left all three of them.

lynch rong

I don't like your reasoning, you're better than this.

[Hoopy]

I assume this is what got daven dead. Wolves must be seer hunting n2, otherwise they suck.

There's two seer hints in here. First of all he backs off rilla, which might suggest that the wolves thought daven had looked at rilla n1. This would make rilla look very much the villager. Also he tells us that he'll have a lock read on gizmo in a day or two, which might hint that he intended to look at him later.

daven kill tells me rilla is a villager.

See ong, daven also suspected you of wolfin. Plus you suddenly seem to know what the wolves motives were and be able to quickly pick out the post that got daven killed, almost like you've been thinking about it all night......

lynch ong

Also wtf vig, please don't shoot anymore.

[Luco]

See ong, daven also suspected you of wolfin...

Also gabe

[jyms]

I told everyone on Day one Ong is a wolf and I still beleive it and will bold him again for the second day

Lynch Ong

[rong]

rong, if you agree that the wolves were special hunting then they are de facto not acting on threats. How can you agree that they're special hunting but then immediately go on to make conjecture about rilla and gator because they weren't nommed?

Because both things exist at the same time. Daven was killed, gator and Rilla (and jv then) were alive.

As I said, with those 3 alive, to pick someone else you'd have to be pretty sure of yourself.

I imagine one of gator or Rilla most likely to feel so sure.

I don't get what's so hard to comprehend there.

[Luco]

Because both things exist at the same time. Daven was killed, gator and Rilla (and jv then) were alive.

As I said, with those 3 alive, to pick someone else you'd have to be pretty sure of yourself.

I imagine one of gator or Rilla most likely to feel so sure.

I don't get what's so hard to comprehend there.

The only requirement for leaving those three alive would be that there's a better candidate for seer than those three. Wolves doing anything but hunt the seer would be madness and we are in a game full of regs who would know this.

[Keith]

another thing i don't like about Ong is that he put a lot of pressure on courtie during the night and then opened up with an attack and lynch on her first thing the day opened. As a villager why would he need to put anyone under pressure at night?

As a wolf , by putting the spotlight onto courtie he can potentially influence the Vig to shoot her and/or the seer to look her up. SInce she survived the vig, by lynching her and trying to get a wagon running on her he can see if anyone comes out strongly either to defend or attack her. This then gives the wolves potential seers to examine by targetting someone that they tried to influence the seer to lookup. If courtie is a wolf and someone comes pressing the case behind Ong , they can eat that person tonight and if courtie does get revealed as a wolf Ong looks villager for attacking her. If courtie is a villager and someone defends her then they have a likely seer .

Lynch thOng

[OngBonga]

I've been drinking in the sun, so this is gonna be interesting.

I'm the seer. Leave me be until tomorrow. We have this wrapped up with one more confirm. I have two confirmed villagers, both still alive. It's obvious who the vig is, and I think I know who the angel is, neither of whom have been looked at.

I've been deliberately playing wolfy because obviously I don't want to get nommed.

bee has to die today because I think she's vanilla, which is better than lynching a wolf. I've been villager hunting, not wolf hunting, and doing a very good job thankyouverymuch.

One more day.

[OngBonga]

Angel and vig should both claim as soon as I get nommed.

[Keith]

rescind thOng

but wtf .........wolves could have wagonned a lynch without you revealing lookups .......stinks of a fake out

[OngBonga]

Wagonned me before I reveal? Anyone who hammers me before I reveal is claiming wolf.

[OngBonga]

Revealing tomorrow is best because if I reveal today they just pick off one of them and it's not a lock.

And you know if I'm a wolf tomorrow because there won't be a kill. The wolves are not going to roll dice with the angel at this stage, they'll try to kill me tonight so they know they have a clean shot next night.

If someone gets killed tonight, then I reveal and you lynch me.

[jyms]

Rescind Ong. Why is killing a vanilla CB a good idea?

[jyms]

Also a fake out with no wolves dead could kill a village if we fuck up without finding what Ong claims to know

[OngBonga]

I realise that I claim seer as wolf too, and I realise I'm not being as coherent as I usually am, so I get people not buying this claim. If people really want me to reveal today, I will, but it's better tomorrow.

I'll explain myself better when I'm sober.

[OngBonga]

And lynching a vanilla is best because it forces the wolves to counterclaim the specials.

I'll explain the maths later.

Maths. Not math.

[rong]

what was the vc before ong outed? I mean we treat him as legit until we know better but I'm curious. And if he's faking, real seer don't out.

[Keith]

Revealing tomorrow is best because if I reveal today they just pick off one of them and it's not a lock.

And you know if I'm a wolf tomorrow because there won't be a kill. The wolves are not going to roll dice with the angel at this stage, they'll try to kill me tonight so they know they have a clean shot next night.

If someone gets killed tonight, then I reveal and you lynch me.

and what happens if you're a wolf and the wolves choose not to kill, then it looks like you were protected so must be the seer

[Luco]

and what happens if you're a wolf and the wolves choose not to kill, then it looks like you were protected so must be the seer

We were not told at the start of the game that the wolves could elect not to nom. It would be unfair if they could without our knowledge.

[Luco]

Rong buddy, help me out here. I still can't make sense of this.

Lol vig. Is you sdm?

Agree that wolves must have been special hunting. Otherwise Daven makes no sense.
Still alive last night were jv, Rilla and gator.
Wolves must be pretty sure of themselves to leave all 3 of those alive.

I imagine at least one of them is a wolf. If all 3 were Villagers I can't see any wolf team not killing one of them.

Gator would be my choice. Courtie is a lousy choice imo. But if we are looking for a likely wolf who is unlikely to have been looked up, I suggest Hoopy.

It's the sentence 'If all 3 were Villagers I can't see any wolf team not killing one of them' that I'm having difficulty with. You acknowledged that the wolves were probably special hunting, but you can't see any wolf team special hunting if jv, rilla, gator are all villagers? Because it's entirely plausible to me.

As I previously posted, seer hunting explains the not-nom of jv, rilla and gator all by itself. For you to continue with any other hypothesis after acknowledging that the wolves were seer hunting is totally unneccesary.

Because both things exist at the same time. Daven was killed, gator and Rilla (and jv then) were alive.

As I said, with those 3 alive, to pick someone else you'd have to be pretty sure of yourself.

I imagine one of gator or Rilla most likely to feel so sure.

I don't get what's so hard to comprehend there.

I'm struggling to match this to your earlier post. Please help.

[rong]

Well, I guess in that circumstance you'd have a shot at hitting a special with x probability (and someone showed how daven's post that looked seerish wasn't all that, and you'd also have the effect of those 3 still being alive and also potentially being the seer.

I'd want to be pretty dam sure that I was hitting the seer before I'd leave all three of them in the field.

Admittedly Rilla hasn't been that involved but if he turns up and switches it on, combined with villagers gator and jv, then the wolf team could find themselves in a lot of trouble. It's only night 2 so not make or break time, plus Rilla and gator had been getting a lot of heat (implying they are playing different so could well be specials) and surviving. I can't see us getting too many shots at lynching either.

So I'm saying the +ev of x probability of hitting a special from the non-(rilka, jv, gator) set needs to be weighed against the +ev of x probability of hitting a special from the (gator, Rilla, jv) set. So I'd want to be pretty dam sure I was hitting a special from the first group to not take a shot at the second.

[rong]

I'm quite pleased with that explanation. It kinda explains something I've never thought through although obviously consider with every kill when playing as a wolf.

[Luco]

Thanks rong. it appears what we have here is a difference of opinion. I would put 'find seer' as higher priority than 'eliminate threats' if I were wolfin, but you're the other way around.

Also, given the amount of heat rilla and gator got they wouldn't be out of the running for a lynch today, which might also explain why they were passed over last night. I didn't think the daven nom was too indicative but I can see your pov.

[wufwugy]

INTERRUPTION

SDM is not pleased with any of your shit. He uses his one-time super power. Engage: StillDeadZombie!

The Living

SDM

The Dead (zombified)

ur mom
bugrud
gabe
warpe
tlr
daven
jv
bid
ong
donkbee
keith
jyms
rong
gizmo
gator
hoopy
rilla
luco

The Village

0 villagers
0 every night seer
0 every night angel who can't target the same player on subsequent nights
0 even night vig that can't save bullets and starts firing on Night 2
0 wolves
1 SDM

Game is over. SDM wins. You all suck

























































































In case you don't get it, this post is a joke. It's no secret that SDM has always been my favoritest player by several orders of magnitude, so this is just for funsies

Carry on, muchachos!

[BennyLaRue]

Moderate in moderation, Stephen.

[wufwugy]

BennyLaRue's mom = moderated

[OngBonga]

Alright here we go...

It's 8-4. I have two confirms. Both are alive. From my pov we're at 5-4. If both my confirms are vanilla, then the specials make that 3-4. That would be a lock, but granted there's doubt about me so it's not that simple. I'm not suggesting the specials claim.

There is another way. The vig can consider shooting me next. Are the wolves going to nom elsewhere, relying on the vig to shoot me? I doubt it. So that's a risk-free way of dealing with me. Something for the vig to quietly consider anyway.

And here's why it's better to lynch and scan vanilla -

After today's lynch, we're 7-4 or 8-3.

Consider 7-4 after a vanilla lynch. I have two confirms, one more from tonight, and the two specials to claim. That's 5. That puts us at 2-4, not including me (it's 1-4 from my pov), leaving us enough room for me to look at a wolf, or one of my lookups to be nommed if the wolves dodge me, or me to scan a special. A perfect night and we win, a bad night and we're looking for 4 wolves in a group of 5.

If we lynch a wolf, at 8-3 we have less wolves hiding in a larger group of unknowns. My three confirms plus the two other specials would mean there's 3 wolves in 6 unknowns.

This is why I've been villager hunting. I think it's a stronger seer tactic.

So, I think we lynch bee because she's either wolf or vanilla imo. She's not the vig because bee isn't shooting jack, and I don't think she's the angel. I've obviously not looked at her, so by lynching her we don't run the risk of running up someone who I have looked at, giving the wolves some hope by dancing with the angel.

If you don't go for bee, well I'll keep an eye on the dicussion without interfering too much, and if you're looking like swinging for a confim, I'll intervene.

[OngBonga]

There's a maths fail there. I knew I should've waited until tomorrow.

Someone make sense of that.

[GatorJH]

There's a maths fail there. I knew I should've waited until tomorrow.

Someone make sense of that.

I will work through it tomorrow and post my thoughts. I think there is some merit, but need to think it through.

[BankItDrew]

So let me get this straight...

Ong outted as seer?

[Luco]

right now we have 12 players, all unknown. You could say that ong is confirmed (I can explain why he's pretty much confirmed even before tonight but for this calculation its irrelevant)

Let's say we lynch a villager today, the wolves are forced to aim for ong tonight so the angel can't protect him the following night, so we start tomorrow with 4 confirmed and 7 unknown.

Then angel and vig out. worst case scenario is that they were both looked up, leaving us 4 vs 7. Best case is 6 confirmed, 5 unknown and its 5 vs 6 if one of angel / vig was looked up.

The wolves are forced to counterclaim in the best case scenario but in any other its not absolutely necessary (I think).

Have I got that right?

[Luco]

Revealing tomorrow is best because if I reveal today they just pick off one of them and it's not a lock.

And you know if I'm a wolf tomorrow because there won't be a kill. The wolves are not going to roll dice with the angel at this stage, they'll try to kill me tonight so they know they have a clean shot next night.

If someone gets killed tonight, then I reveal and you lynch me.

Ah. I've just realised something here. I don't want to give the wolves their optimal strategy but I reckon they will figure this out before nightfall anyway:

The angel is forced to protect you, but who says the wolves are forced to nom you?

Angel should protect either ong or himself tonight. Maybe roll a die and protect himself if he rolls a 6 but otherwise, protect ong. Basically a percentage that makes it difficult for the wolves to choose between ong and everyone else. It also means they won't know if they have a clean shot tomorrow.

[rong]

Errrrr and risk losing 3 look ups?

[rong]

You can say it, but when it comes to it, wolves have to kill the seer and just accept that it takes two bites and Angel has to protect seer.

Anything else is madness from any team.

[Luco]

You can say it, but when it comes to it, wolves have to kill the seer and just accept that it takes two bites and Angel has to protect seer.

Anything else is madness from any team.

I'm saying if the wolves know angel is 100% protecting ong then they're safe to look elsewhere tonight. It has to be slightly lower imo, maybe 95% or something.

[Luco]

Mostly we just need to carry on as normal today with ong staying quiet (lol gl with that). Villagers need to shine through.

[a500lbgorilla]

So what were the look ups?

[a500lbgorilla]

I see. Nevermind.

[a500lbgorilla]

[2 seer-cleared, 1 seer, 1 angel, 1 vig, 4 wolves, 3 un-id'd villagers]
[5 known, 7 unknown]

Kill an uk, peek an uk, lose an uk would be [6, 5].
kill an uk, peek an uk, lose a k would be [5, 6].

Then we have 1.some to 1 killing power with the wolves and walk it out.

Great, I barely have to lift a finger and we win. It feels good to be the King.

[OngBonga]

Busy today, so it'll be easy for me to be quiet because I'll be afk.

So don't lynch one of my lookups please.

And talk.

[OngBonga]

Oh don't hammer anyone before I'm back, which will be in like 12 hours.

[Keith]

gizmo and dan villagers.

daven is almost certainly a villager. I really don't think he waits so long to start swinging for people if he's a wolf, because doing so will look different to his standard. daven comes across as someone who does not care how he is perceived, and who's looking for wolves. Screams villager.

jyms is bending my head right now. I don't think he posts this strong as a wolf, but I can't let this bigred vote go. I'm am very much torn on him.

gator dumping his somewhat solid attack on SDM to vote for me on the basis of my comment about him being an early target, this is strange and I'm starting to worry about his motives. He's caught SDM outright lying to hammer a villager, while at worst I have a bad memory. Why would I lie and say gator is often early kill if he isn't? If I'm wrong, then it's obviously my poor memory. There's little wolf motivation in making such a lie. But SDM's lie oozes wolf motivation. Yet gator has shifted onto me. Certainly worthy of note.

So what were the look ups?

these were thOng's definitive statements about people on day 2. I don't see seer Ong making a blatant statement like Dan and Gizmo are villagers when he had only had one lookup. Daven he's got as "almost certainly" a villager but he's since said that both his lookups are still alive. I don't see any other hints that could be used by village to get information about his lookups had he died last night.

Combine that with his outing when on only 3 votes out of 7 and i still think this stinks of a fake outing. there's no evidence to support his claim.

[rong]

Nice find Keith. Seems an odd time to fake out though.

[Luco]

So let me get this straight...

Ong outted as seer?

This post alone makes me want to lynch you

[Hoopy]

I don't trust ong here, why wouldn't you just out immediately at the start of the day if the game could be locked up? Plus keith has a good point in post #515.

Regardless, I guess we can't lynch ong today so rescind.

[donkbee]

This is why I've been villager hunting. I think it's a stronger seer tactic.


So, I think we lynch bee because she's either wolf or vanilla imo. She's not the vig because bee isn't shooting jack, and I don't think she's the angel. I've obviously not looked at her, so by lynching her we don't run the risk of running up someone who I have looked at, giving the wolves some hope by dancing with the angel.

I get why you would try to find villagers rather than wolves, but I don't get why you want to lynch me if you think I am a vanilla villager. Don't you have some clues as to who the wolves might be based on your confirmed villagers?

I don't trust ong here, why wouldn't you just out immediately at the start of the day if the game could be locked up?

Why would he out at the start of the day? That would prevent us from getting another day of info before we know who the seer is. Or half day of info if he chose to out himself in the middle of the day. Overall it seems -EV for him to out himself at all today if he hadn't had the bandwagon going on him, cuz another free look tonight and then outting tomorrow would have locked it up for sure. I think?

[Luco]

Is ong getting lynched today? No? Then save your breath. Even if he's a lying wolf there's still three others out there. Ong is tomorrows problem.

Where is gizmo?

[GatorJH]

Angel should protect either ong or himself tonight. Maybe roll a die and protect himself if he rolls a 6 but otherwise, protect ong. Basically a percentage that makes it difficult for the wolves to choose between ong and everyone else. It also means they won't know if they have a clean shot tomorrow.

This.

I am also trying to think through the Vig outing tomorrow night and what that means. A lot of it depends on the ratio we have tomorrow so maybe we should wait until then to discuss.

As for today I think we should lynch BID before CB.

Finally Ong, try pretty hard to find a wolf tonight because I think that really helps our cause tomorrow.

[GatorJH]

Keith, Stop trying to figure out Ong today. Unless the seer lost a lookup we should be in good shape tomorrow and if a counterclaim happens can figure it out from there.

Let's focus on trying to find a wolf today and see where we are tomorrow.

[Keith]

Keith, Stop trying to figure out Ong today. Unless the seer lost a lookup we should be in good shape tomorrow and if a counterclaim happens can figure it out from there.

Let's focus on trying to find a wolf today and see where we are tomorrow.

that seems a wolfy post to me....... if we can figure out Ong , we can look at who else has taken similar line to ong and lynch them today if we think ong is probably a wolf. Which in turn can help with accepting Ongs reveals and any counterclaims tomorrow.

[GatorJH]

that seems a wolfy post to me....... if we can figure out Ong , we can look at who else has taken similar line to ong and lynch them today if we think ong is probably a wolf. Which in turn can help with accepting Ongs reveals and any counterclaims tomorrow.

Do you think it is best to spend this time figuring out Ong or finding a wolf? If Ong is fake we have already found a wolf. Also, imo any analysis of Ong should be done once there is a counterclaim. Then we can analyze both claims at the same time.

[GatorJH]

that seems a wolfy post to me....... if we can figure out Ong , we can look at who else has taken similar line to ong and lynch them today if we think ong is probably a wolf. Which in turn can help with accepting Ongs reveals and any counterclaims tomorrow.

Also, if Ong is telling the truth that line won't help us lynch a wolf as he admittedly hasn't found one.