Resistance - Rebel Uprising

Jkds has proposed the following players to save the galaxy on this mission:

Jkds
Boog
Rilla

Feel free to discuss and vote (yay or nay). Votes can be rescinded but the mission is decided when there are 6 votes for something or time limit in 48 hours.

yay

I guess. First day is probably kinda random here too. Btw one thing isn't rly clear to me, how does the game end? Resistance have to vote on who the spies are after the 5 missions are over or how is this decided?

I rushed my decision and didnt math it out. Dumb dumb

Im a rebel, so selection can be
2 other rebels
1 other rebel
0 other rebels

2 rebels is 5/9*4/8 = 27%
1 rebel is 5/9*4/8 + 4/9*5/8 = 54%
0 rebels is 4/9*3/8 =17%

Therefore, the chance of picking at least 1 spy is 73%. Picking two is 17%

If i didnt choose myself
3 rebels: 6/10*5/9*4/8 = 17%
2 rebels: 6/10*5/9*4/8*3 = 50%
1 rebel: 6/10*4/9*3/8 = 30%
0 rebels: 4/10*3/9*2/8 = 3%

Therefore, the chance of picking at least 1 spy is 83%, picking two or more is 33%.

Im not sure whats best really. On the one hand, 27% chance that i bingoed villagers. On the other hand, the spies winning the mission seems the most likely. Since thats the case, i feel like we should give it to the spies and try to maximize the chance that 2 spies are on the mission...meaning i shouldnt have chose myself.

JKDS Theorem #1: To maximize rebel victory, first mission should be forfeited.

Idk, sounds legit. NAY

We should be vetoing the first mission anyway, just so we can get info on the players instead of it being a random chance

Originally Posted by jackvance

yay

I guess. First day is probably kinda random here too. Btw one thing isn't rly clear to me, how does the game end? Resistance have to vote on who the spies are after the 5 missions are over or how is this decided?

Its whoever wins 3 missions. We dont have to identify the spies, but it helps

yay

No reason to say no as we have no info yet. In fact, is there any point to this first day time?

I think dans a spy

Also i think JV is a rebel

Didn't see your post there before I postes.

Your theorem is shite.

It assumes we (ie all villagers excluding you) would believe you are also a villager, which we have no reason to believe.

Obv villager = rebel

I think JKDS is a backstabbing wolf. I would vote to lynch him if I could. However, he wanted me on a mission. Since I'm involved, I vote yay.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

Didn't see your post there before I postes.

Your theorem is shite.

It assumes we (ie all villagers excluding you) would believe you are also a villager, which we have no reason to believe.

Obv villager = rebel

then you should still veto. DUCY

No. The next guy is just as likely to be a spy as you, it makes no difference. Plus if you're a spy, you'd know to just pick one spy plus 2 rebels to ensure only one vote. The spys no each other so it makes no difference as far as I can tell.

Urggggh.... one of them nos is a know.

Originally Posted by JKDS

Its whoever wins 3 missions. We dont have to identify the spies, but it helps

Ok yeah I think I actually read that, just had WW rules still in my head. Ok so if the spies take the first mission(s) we'll need to identify them just to not put any of them in a mission anymore to win.

Btw I don't think we need to default vote nay here, we have a 48 hour limit which we can stretch out to, so 2 days, which should be enough to discuss what we need to discuss for now. We have no info anyway so no need to drag it out over 3+ days.

Is there some value in saying nay and then not saying yay until the leader is someone not in JKDS's list, and then agreeing that that leader must chose himself and JKDS in his mission.

3 for yay
1 for nay

FYI, the leadership role passes down the randomly generated list in the first post. Therefore, boog will be the next leader followed by NightGizmo.

rescind yay

Look, if im a spy, we should veto because the spies win the mission

If im a rebel, we should veto because the spies are probabilistically more likely to win this than rebels...but i didnt take advantage of that and push for multiple spies to try and force a double failure.

I suppose the next leader could be a spy, but i could be too and the probability is the same for both. Either way i think veto is best so we can make an informed decision instead of one based on probability that heavily favors spies

Informed? Lol

im not sure dan laughs at that as a spi. Thats 3 rebels i gots now! JV, Dan, and myself.

Ok I reread the rules properly now. First thing, if someone doesn't vote 2 days in a row he gets modkilled, so if we want to stretch out a day, people either have to split their votes or vote and rescind (rather than not vote). And if we keep rejecting leaders, we can make a day last for over a week in real time; After 4 rejects the thread is closed and the 5th person will be the default leader. Again, don't see the need to do it day 1 cuz we might be leveling ourselves (unless not enough ppl have posted yet etc then we can go through a few people). Also the spies can't communicate with each-other so it'l be a bit harder to catch them with reads than in WW but ofc it's still a big advantage b/c they'll have to second guess each-others motives.

And we'll probably be doing this stretching a day out to the max from day 2 onwards when we have some info. And after that, depending on how it goes, we might be wanting to land on a specific leader so as to dodge people we think are spies, who we don't want to be making the teams.

There is another thing which stands out to me, meta game stuff, but I can't say it out in the open because it could help the spies a lot, so I'll sit on it until after the game. Also I'm a bit curious how balanced this is, last 2 missions have 5 people in them rather than 3 but they need to 2 spies to sabotage it, so we'll see.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

Is there some value in saying nay and then not saying yay until the leader is someone not in JKDS's list, and then agreeing that that leader must chose himself and JKDS in his mission.

for the first game we play and only this game, this is optimal.

Modkill results in replacement from the reserve pool if there are players in the pool. Otherwise standard modkill.

@JKDS first post: ideal is indeed for first day if we get 2 spies in the group, they might derp and vote failure both, meaning we'll have half of them, 2 spies locked down in a group of 3. Worst case scenario is if a spy is the leader cuz he'll make a 1 spy team (or mission 4 and 5 a 2 spy team). Or they might both vote success and we win the mission, which is good too, altho we are deceived in information ofcourse. I think for first day most important is we see everyone post so we can get some information and reads, we can go on those early reads but we have to be careful not to get too hung up on it and leveled, and then we just see how the voting goes if that gives us more info. Your math is good but it's a bit hard to apply b/c we don't have a way to confirm a villager with no specials and no see look-ups. Still there is merit in not including yourself in the first day mission as a leader, I like this idea.

zzz the jkds, jv, and dan show is boring.

yay

read rules, first round is meaningless until after it happens

yay

Originally Posted by JKDS

I rushed my decision and didnt math it out. Dumb dumb

Im a rebel, so selection can be
2 other rebels
1 other rebel
0 other rebels

2 rebels is 5/9*4/8 = 27%
1 rebel is 5/9*4/8 + 4/9*5/8 = 54%
0 rebels is 4/9*3/8 =17%

Therefore, the chance of picking at least 1 spy is 73%. Picking two is 17%

If i didnt choose myself
3 rebels: 6/10*5/9*4/8 = 17%
2 rebels: 6/10*5/9*4/8*3 = 50%
1 rebel: 6/10*4/9*3/8 = 30%
0 rebels: 4/10*3/9*2/8 = 3%

Therefore, the chance of picking at least 1 spy is 83%, picking two or more is 33%.

Im not sure whats best really. On the one hand, 27% chance that i bingoed villagers. On the other hand, the spies winning the mission seems the most likely. Since thats the case, i feel like we should give it to the spies and try to maximize the chance that 2 spies are on the mission...meaning i shouldnt have chose myself.

JKDS Theorem #1: To maximize rebel victory, first mission should be forfeited.

Idk, sounds legit. NAY

We should be vetoing the first mission anyway, just so we can get info on the players instead of it being a random chance

This math is wrong but I'm not gonna figure out how to set it straight tonight.

yay we don't learn crap from voting nay.

Thats enough votes, but yall are dumb.

I just showed you unequivocally that the rebels are heavily disadvantaged when we pick ppl to go on missions at random. You would rather go with the random picks anyway, even though the lot of you demand ppl talk and discuss on WW day 1s.

Im flabbergasted

I think we have to nay and do what I said earlier. Not doing so allows a spy jkds to play perfectly, but doing so potentially puts a spy JKDS in a difficult spot.

Why is nobody acknowledging this to either agree or refute.

Also, it's only 5 yays so we can still get a nay going.

NAY

Unless people are assuming jkds is a spy and fucked up hence his desperation to get a nay. Possible I guess, but I still prefer my plan above.

As I figure it, ideal for spies would be 2 rebels and 1 spy.

If JKDS is a spy, then he's either picked no spies to go with him and is hoping we vote this mission yay, or he's double bluffing and picked a spy or even two and is now trying to talk us out of his proposal.

But if he's a rebel, then he's picked two at random and we have no info.

At this stage I have no idea, but since everyone else is voting yay, I'm gonna vote nay as this seems to be an easy wagon and we should talk more before deciding who to send.

I count votes at 5/3 in favour of yay, one more vote for yay seals it.

Gizmo and drew yet to post.

I'm wondering what the votes mean, and why people would make the votes.

Rebel votes yay - guess this seems default for the first mission, there is no reason yet to suspect JKDS over anyone else, and same for those he picked.

Rebel votes nay - Distrust, either because a yay vote appears too easy, or because one or more of the list is supected of being a spy.

Spy votes yay - Either he likes the proposal because it has just the right amount of spies, or he wants to give the impression he likes it when he doesn't.

Spy votes nay - He doesn't like the proposal as there are no spies or too many spies, or he wants everyone to think he doesn't like it when he does.

I realise I'm on the nay wagon, but it seems to me that a nay vote is the most suspicious, which is interesting because JKDS thinks yay votes are suspicious. It just seems logical for a rebel to vote yay as default for the first mission, though obv a spy would be able to hide better in the yay wagon if this is the case.

I dunno, I'm curious what people think about stratgey here, I'm wondering if the spies will be more interested in winning this round or remaining hidden.

5 yays
3 nays

Alright jiggerbells, let's get down to business

First, on pure numbers it's:

3 spies - 3.33%
2 spies - 30%
1 spies - 50%
0 spies - 16.67%

This is the combo of the two child scenarios: JKDS as a reb:

2 spies - 16.67%
1 spies - 55.55%
0 spies - 27.77%

JKDS as a spy:

Choice rules, if he picks two rebs, and the mission fails, 2 people both know that 1 spy is 100% within another group of two and everyone in that team becomes toxic.

He picked boog who picks the next team and me who prob won't get to pick a team.

If he knows boog is a reb, he'll have tipped his hand that boog can't include myself or JKDS in the next group as we run at a higher rate of spy-dom than rand. So Boog will get to field a team with better info.

If boog is a spy, JKDS got to pick a team and then campaign against it on pure numbers and allow for a spy to pick the next team. He banks reb points and the spies'll still get to walk to at least 1 mission failure.

The spies want specifically 1 spy on the mission. 2 spies requires coordination to get the first to vote success and the second to vote fail and 3 spies is a disaster. So on a pure random draw, the situation is a push.

Everything is info in retrospect. The team and JKDS pushing for a redraw are meaningless without seeing what happens with this team.

Also, JKids your plan to tone read people at this point is aids. We don't know anything about how spies act in the game at this stage so redrawing a team on lols is the same as pulling one together in the dark.

We learn nothing on a redraw, we start to hammer out a picture if we go through.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

Is there some value in saying nay and then not saying yay until the leader is someone not in JKDS's list, and then agreeing that that leader must chose himself and JKDS in his mission.

This is interesting. I'm third in line and I'd be willing to do it, but my main concern is that it doesn't reveal much about JKDS. At best, it reveals information about me. If JKDS is a spy, then I'm not a spy because we wouldn't want 2 spies on the team. But if JKDS is a rebel, then either (a) I'm also a rebel and we improve our chances of success on the first mission or (b) I'm a spy and I get to ensure that only one spy goes on the mission.

So basically in this situation, if the mission fails with only 1 vote then there's a 50% chance that I'm a spy, and I'll be less likely to end up on missions.

It also means that it's highly unlikely that both me and JKDS are spies, since we wouldn't want to risk showing 2 votes this early in the game.

I agree with wuf and rilla that we don't have any reads, so any team is probably as good as another.

Also, letting the leadership pass to other players increases the opportunity for it to fall to a spy, who can then pick their ideal team (1 spy, 2 rebels), so voting yay now is probably better. Especially if JKDS is a rebel, because at least we increased our odds of hitting a 3-rebel team.

vote yay

@Dan: I missed your rescind. yay!
@gizmo: boo

@rilla: I like how my math was wrong, and you came up with the same numbers :/

@ong: Yays are suspicious, because having at least one spy on a mission is the most likely outcome by a wide margin. This will be the case throughout the game, and we have to work together to get reads on ppl so we can go against choosing ppl at random. Its highly likely there is at least one spy in the group i chose, so voting the mission though is silly. I would much rather choose Dan and JV at this point, just because theyre posting as they typically would.

Spies arent the same as wolves, i understand that. But they still share many qualities. They are trying to conceal their identity, and also trying to convince the village to vote a certain way as well as attempting to tell spies how theyre going to vote on the chance more than 1 spy is on a mission. While they arent working together to push a particular agenda as in WW, they are still working against the village in their own personal way.

Whatever, no one will listen to jkds strategy like always. Lets flip two coins and see if theyre both heads shall we?

On the offchance someone will listen

Rilla, ong, wuf, lolz, and boog are suspicious to me at the moment

oh i see jkds point now, i think. not sure how much i agree with it tho

the point of getting more or less than 1 spy on each mission, and trying to do so through game posts. i think, though, that the margin of error on selections for the mission 1 will be within the margin of error. was thinking about the game while in the shower (we all do our best thinking there ldo), and it appears to me that games will probably mostly boil down to the spies winning the first two, rebels winning the next two, then an epic battle over the last one. or something like that.

i feel like the strategy boils down to two sections: 1, get no spies on just one of the first 3 missions; 2, get less than 2 spies on the last two missions

prolly cant but rescind yay

there could be some value to botching several first missions, but i have no clue

Nope. Mission has passed and we're moving on.

Please don't post after a 6th vote is reached in the future.

JKDS, Boog, and Rilla. Please send me your mission PMs.

The radio hisses, "Roger Alpha Hen, this is squad leader JKDS reporting in. We have the enemy freighter in sight. Red squadron, report in."

"500 pounds of gorilla Red 2 reporting in, sir."

"Uh....uh...is this thing on? Can you guys hear me? This is Boog, Red 3."

"Roger that, Red 3," says JKDS, "we read you loud and clear."

"Oh...ok...good," whimpers Boog, "because someone installed my control panel with Chinese characters. I asked for Korean! I can't read anything!"

"Uh, repeat that Red 3."

"My console, my buttons, all of it," says Boog, "it's all in Chinese. I don't know which button is for fire, which is for thrust..."

"But Red 3," shouts JKDS, "You're supposed to be the primary freight bomber. How the hell did you take off from our hangar, enter light speed, and arrive here without realizing your ENTIRE CONSOLE IS LABELED IN A LANGUAGE YOU CAN'T READ?

"Um, I have an AHK script that controls the ship until I get to our target's destination..."

"You have a...dammit. Regardless of language, Red 3 I command you open fire on that freighter."

"But..."

"I COMMAND YOU OPEN FIRE ON THE FREIGHTER!"

30 seconds goes by without any signs of attack on the freighter.

"Red 3? Red 3?!?!? Why aren't you....ohhhhh crap," says JKDS as Boog goes floating by in his space suit waving. "That idiot hit the eject button. "Ok, Red 2, engage the freighter and destroy it!"

"Yes sir!" exclaims Rilla. He sets his computer on the target and unloads a huge armada of missiles and lasers. There are tons of explosions and once the space dust clears the target is gone.

"Uh, red 2..."

"Yes, red leader?"

"Why did you use all your weapons on that asteroid passing by?"

"Oooh," says Rilla, "that wasn't the freighter? I get things all mixed up sometimes!"

"God dammit," mutters JKDS, "uh, Alpha Hen. We have a problem."

"Go ahead, red leader," says Command.

"Red 3 ejected himself and Red 2 blew up an asteroid instead of the freighter. We're all out of weapons."

"Red leader, please use your space craft to carry out the mission yourself"

JKDS' face turns red. "Uh, that's a negative, Alpha Hen. I uh, being an officer and all, had all the weapons removed to make room for my officer's frappucino machine."

"You did what?" says Command, "hold on..." JKDS hears a few voices muttering in the background.

"They what....ejected...asteroid...frappucino...idiots.. .uh, Red Leader. Please report back to base for debriefing...idiots."

Mission was a failure

There were 2 success votes and 1 failure vote

Due to the fact that Boog was probably the least idiotic on the last mission, the leadership role passes to him. Try to disappoint the Rebel Forces less than JKDS.

Boog, please PM me your 4 candidates for the next mission.

Red Squadron:
JKDS
Boog690 (Leader)
Nightgizmo
Jackvance
Lolzzz_321
BankItDrew
Ongbonga
a500lbgorilla
Wufwugy
DanAronG

It seems the retrieval force forgot Boog was still floating in space...

Kindly wait while we locate him!

From his hospital bedside, recovering from space floating, boog chooses his mission candidates by stating, "Anyone but me!"

"But sir, we need actual candidates."

"Um, these guys," Boog says pointing at four names. "Now go, it's time for my afternoon cry session."

Boog has chosen to send:

DanAranG
NightGizmo
Ongbonga
Wufwugy

One failure vote required for mission failure.

I have no idea what to do or how we go about finding 4 rebels (or 3 more rebels including me).

I'm kinda assuming we lose this mission but have to make sure we get enough info from today to give us success in the next few.

I have nothing more to add.

Cliffs - 48 hour nights suck.

Originally Posted by JKDS

On the offchance someone will listen

Rilla, ong, wuf, lolz, and boog are suspicious to me at the moment

I replied to this just as bigred closed the thread! The gist of my response was simple, this game is more about probability than reads, as far as I can tell. You think I (or any of the others) might be a spy, then vote nay for any missions we're nominated for. I'm not going to waste my time defending against accusation of being a spy, other than to say I'm obv a rebel.

We learned yesterday that there is definitely one spy amongst JKDS, boog and rilla. I think it's JKDS, he nominated his picks then tried to get the village to nay vote it. He also seems to be the one pointing fingers at people. But there could just as easily be more than one spy, and JKDS could be a rebel. I'm not going to get into the finger pointing thing and instead play this game by using probability. At this stage, JKDS, rilla and boog are each equally more likely to be a spy than anyone else.

If we nay vote any mission that involves these people, that leaves 7 people, and 1, 2 or 3 spies. I highly doubt JKDS would pick three spies to do the first mission unless he's trying levels from the off, it's only going to work if his proposal is rejected, though he did try to get the village to reject it so idk.

I'm thinking we should nay vote this one, boog was part of the failed mission and could be a spy, so we should nay this and let gizmo pick the next mission. If boog is a spy, we have to ask, did he pick his selection knowing his proposal will like be rejected? If so, he likely didn't pick any spies, but he could be hoping we pass it, in which case there would be one spy. If he's a rebel, he's picked four randoms who were not involved in the failed mission yesterday. That's more likely for me, but I don't want to risk it while boog is marked.

nay

Originally Posted by DanAronG

I'm kinda assuming we lose this mission but have to make sure we get enough info from today to give us success in the next few.

This is an odd thing to say. Rebels need to win this mission or it's gonna be very tough indeed.
I'm adding dan to my list of marked villagers, so I'm rejecting anything involving JKDS, boog, rilla, dan, until there's more marked villagers than unmarked, at least.

What I said makes sense. It's unlikely given the info we have that we pick 4 rebels today. So we need to make sure we at least have a clue for tomorrow.