Resistance - Rebel Uprising

So I'm 100% certain JKDS is a spy at this point. Being that JackVance's input has been better than that of NightGizmo, I'm assuming the other spy is Gizmo.

Dan's logic is spot on. We can't be choosing anyone from the group of "fiddyfiddys."

nay

nay

I don't like this selection at all. Lolz is looking very dodgy with this pick.

Ok we have two spies in this group... jkds, jv, boog, gizmo

and two in this group... wuf, lolz, dan, drew, rilla, ongbonga

I think wuf and lolz from the 2nd group, dunno about the first, looks like jkds and gizmo.

Originally Posted by BooG690

Dan's logic is spot on. We can't be choosing anyone from the group of "fiddyfiddys."

I agree, only boog, you're in the fiddyfiddys.

I like five from the pool of six, dumping either wuf or lolz.

Any chance there could have been three spies on the mission? That could explain them passing the mission first time, 3 fails would be an utter disaster for the spies.

Will have a look through when I get time to see if I can see any subtle chit chat between spies.

Assuming there were two spies in the recent mission, I can't see jv or jkds being a spy. The reason... if there's two spies, both voting to succeed the mission is a worse spy tactic than both failing it, as we can see. The same mission is always getting picked again if it succeeds with no fail votes, forcing both the spies to vote fail the second time. Had they just both voted fail first time, spies are 2-0 up instead of 2-1 up, and the info remains unchanged. I can't see jv or jkds making this logic mistake, they're both too smart.

Ok so I'm thinking boog and gizmo were the spies, either that or there were three spies on the mission, which complicates things hugely for them. Or I'm wrong and jv and/or jkds isn't as smart as I thought!

This mission looks better based on my reads. I think lolz picked one spy... him... knowing we reject his mission. I might be willing to back this one after all, I'll wait for some discussion before flipping though.

Originally Posted by BooG690

Being that JackVance's input has been better than that of NightGizmo, I'm assuming the other spy is Gizmo.

I picked a team that had the only successful mission so far, and I argued pretty heavily for that team to pass (twice). Then that same team fails with 2 spies on it. Why would I have done any of that as a spy?

Your argument makes no sense, therefore you're likely a spy. And I have to assume Jackvance is one, too.

I gotta be honest, I agree with gizmo, I can't see why he'd pick two (or three) spies on his mission if he's a spy. But on the flip side I can't see jv or jkds voting to succeed the mission unless there's 3 spies on the mission.

Something doesn't add up.

Ongs a rebel now, lol i was wrong on him too.

still a rebel and yay

You know if 2 rebels say yay the spies can bw a win.

I think it's safe to discuss spy voting strat now, they don't need to coordinate their votes anymore, so such discussion helps us more than them.

Gizmo could be a spy. He picked the mission, if I were a spy with him and I knew he picked 2 spies, I would assume he was going to vote fail, leaving me an easy success vote. Gizmo in turn might have seen something from his fellow spy that indicated to him that the other spy was going to vote fail, thus gizmo voted success. A breakdown in communication. This implicates jv and jkds again, no longer do I feel they are too smart to vote success, they might have naturally assumed gizmo intended to vote fail and thus voted success. It might have been gizmo's mistake, not jv or jkds'.

Alternatively, jkds and boog could both be spies. First mission, jkds picked the list then voted nay, boog voted yay. That could be the two telling each other how they intend to vote, that's the way I expected the spies to communicate.

I don't know about this mission. It looks to me like there's just one spy on it... lolz... but why would he pick such a mission? There must be another on this list... I'd say jv. Either that, or lolz is a rebel, but his mission does not look like the choice of a rebel.

So if jv is a spy, that kinda clears jkds. If they were both spies on the last mission, they both vote fail, unless they led each other to believe they would both vote fail.

Gizmo, jv, wuf and lolz, that's where I'm at, this makes most sense right now with the incomplete information I have. This mission is a nay.

Lolz, can you explain your mission please?

Originally Posted by rong

You know if 2 rebels say yay the spies can bw a win.

This would be a concern if the spies were able to communicate outside of the thread, but it's gonna be real tough to coordinate a wagon without everyone else noticing.

I'll say this... if you vote yay for this mission, please check the thread regularly so you can rescind quickly if anything suspicious happens.

Ong I too would have made that assumption, but it doesn't mean everyone else would.

Ong, you're annoying me. Stop making conclusions that use "Gizmo isn't smart" as a premise.

The way I see it, either JKDS and Boog are the spies (and they managed to only cast one "fail" vote on mission 1), or Boog and Jack are spies.

Sorry gizmo, I admit I haven't got you figured out yet. Jkds and jv are experienced in this kind of game, that's the difference. I don't think you're not smart, just less experienced.

Well, take a look at my posts -- I'll admit that I need improvement on developing specific reads on regulars (lack of experience), but my strength is coming up with strong strategies for the game conditions.

And if I was on a 2-spy team on mission 2, you can bet that I would *never* vote for success. As a spy, it would be far worse to accidentally end up with the game 1-1 with the same team inevitably going on a third mission, then to have the game 2-0 and have two failure votes on that mission.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Gizmo, jv, wuf and lolz, that's where I'm at,

You are 100% rebel, because you left out one of JKDS, Boog, rilla on this list.

Originally Posted by JKDS

You are 100% rebel, because you left out one of JKDS, Boog, rilla on this list.

Lol, see who's not smart now gizmo?

Back to the drawing board...

I really dont see how anyone would think id put two spies on my mission if i were a spy...

or that NG would put two spies on his if he were a spy.

Ive been saying all game how doing that would benefit the village, so has rilla, its clearly not the optimal spy strategy. And as much as some ppl want to believe, its not obvious to the spies how each other is going to vote ( as we can clearly see from both a double success and a double failure from them).

I left out my conclusion so my post didnt make sense.

Thus thinking 2 of {Boog, JKDS, RIlla} is a spy is dumb. And thinking NG is a spy is dumb. I highly doubt rilla is a spy based on having two spies on the last mission (makes moer sense one of {Boog, JKDS} was it), therefore we should be thinking

Boog + JV, or JKDS +JV are spies.

Still not clear lol.

Given that there is not a solid way that the spies are communicating with each other, to assume that JKDS+BOog are spies...and that they communicated perfectly the first mission...but failed miserably the second and third, makes this an impossibilitiy imo.

Originally Posted by JKDS

Given that there is not a solid way that the spies are communicating with each other, to assume that JKDS+BOog are spies...and that they communicated perfectly the first mission...but failed miserably the second and third, makes this an impossibilitiy imo.

I agree. I think Boog+JV is the most likely case.

Me too, but im biased

I believe I count

1 yay
2 nay

naying anything lolz does (he's a rebel guise, he's said so a million times already)

nay we should auto nay until my turn.

There's a group of 5 players that rarely has >1 spy in it. We can discuss it when OB picks the team.

1 yay
4 nays

nay

One more nay and we got a mission vote failure!

nay

nay

y am i even voting

Mission proposal failed.

BankItDrew. Please send me your 5 candidates.

BankItDrew proposes:

Jkds
Ong
Night
Rilla
Wuf

That's actually not that bad of a team. I tend to think that everyone on the team is likely a villager. However, I think it's a mistake to pick two people from last mission, since we know that there is a higher chance that there are spies in that group. I'm leaning towards nay, but I'm going to calculate the best combination from pure percentages, assuming that {Boog, JKDS, NightGizmo, Jackvance} has exactly 2 spies in that group.

Weird, it looks like it's the same likelihood of picking all rebels on the team whether we have 1 player from last mission or 2 players. I didn't figure out the chances of only picking 1 spy on the team for either scenario -- I can't seem to remember how to best calculate that.

Also, just to point out -- we have to either pick one or two members from the last mission. Any more, and obviously we automatically have a spy on the team. If we don't pick any, we also have a spy on the team (there are only 4 rebels in the remaining 6 players).

nay

No fiddyfiddys

Ong, out of the 4 from the previous successful and failed missions, who, if a spy, would not have understood that they had to vote success?

yay

Originally Posted by rong

No fiddyfiddys

You can't auto-vote against any team with any members from the last mission. If we pick 5 members from the remaining 6 players, we're already starting with at least 1 spy.

That's right, so all we have to do is spot one of the two spies in that group of 6 and we have 2 shots at it plus a few days info to work from.

Originally Posted by rong

Ong, out of the 4 from the previous successful and failed missions, who, if a spy, would not have understood that they had to vote success?

Success? Do you mean fail?

I've shared my feelings on this, much to gizmo's annoyance.

I thought it was a no brainer that if there's two spies on the mission, then both voting to succeed the mission is worse for them than both voting to fail, thus I figured we have a read here, because I expect jv and jkds to realise this. But I might be wrong. I can't see any reason why two spy success votes is good for them, but it's what happened.

Gizmo is new, and boog is not particularly involved, so I figure they are most likely spies from these two missions, but there could just as easily be a breakdown in communication between the spies that resulted in two success votes, and tbh I'm not convinced gizmo would vote to succeed the mission after picking it.

I agree, no fiddyfiddys, not unless we can clear any of them. I guess I can accept gizmo, but certainly not jv, boog or jkds.

This one's a nay for me, there's jkds and wuf, too risky imo.

@Dan: Ive changed my mind about the fiddy fiddy thing. After picking two rebels out of the group of 6, picking ppl out of either group becomes identical. (Both groups would be a group of 4, with 2 rebels and 2 spies)

naying everything until rilla's turn, then will yay whatever mission he makes

Originally Posted by wufwugy

naying everything until rilla's turn, then will yay whatever mission he makes

Makes sense to me. nay

nay, although i do like this mission, id rather put my faith in rilla

looks like that's the plan. i didn't think there would be enthusiasm for letting rilla decide

if you two are spies (along with rilla), good job. im making rilla my lock-rebel, and that's that. if he's a spy he's the craftiest motherfucker there is

This is the mission I was going to pick.

The most compelling spy pairing from the 2 spy mission is JV and Boog. This is in part because NightGizmo is always a reb.

Outside of that, OB and wuf are much greater than rand to be rebs and the only two possible spies on this mission. For both of them to be a spy is very unlikely.

I invite everyone to take a moment and consider this group because I'm pretty sure it books the win.

Consider this group: JV, Boog, rong, BID, lolzzz def has 3 spies.

yay?

Well my pick will be dan, gizmo, rilla, drew and myself, unless of course this mission passes and succeeds.

rescind nay just to keep the discussion going