No theme werewolf gameplay thread

[BankItDrew]

BID says "sick"... why would he say that? He knows JKDS howl is a lie.

If you're not joking, I won't be able to respect you in the morning.

[OngBonga]

ong looks bad because he didn't dislocate his shoulder by fistpumping too hard. Serious pwnage if he was right on 3/3 in 3 days.

lol nice. As it happened, I did fistpump. And as it happens, I'm pretty sure I fistpump as either alignment.

When I bahahaha, that's where I fistpump. Shortly after I notice jkds posts "joke's on you guys", and that's where I decide to wait for the flip.

It's interesting that you've found a reason to turn on me already. Having drew as a wolf for saying "sick" is pretty thin too. His reaction to the town flip was to laugh in the thread. I'm not so sure a wolf does that.

mojo for sure, probably doobs too. He's preparing to turn on me and drew too.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Funny post, ong. Did you forget that JKDS final post was that I'm a villager?

I haven't decided what to do in this game. I haven't done my daily read-through yet, so I just don't know.

I was so pos. JKDS was wolf, and I was wrong, so I have to seriously re-think everything.

Since my reasoning for thinking JKDS was wolf was initially inspired by the thought that there is def a wolf between ong/JKDS, yes, it stands to reason I'm going to be giving you a long, hard look.

***
I'm right fatigued over this game at this point. I battle with just giving up, but that's just self-loathing and weariness.

Village needs to play 100% to have any hope of winning, and my brain is compromised.

If you're vil after all, ong, then you must appreciate that we HAVE to look you up today.

[OngBonga]

jkds saying you're a villager as he goes doesn't mean you can't be a wolf, you obviously know that. jkds said I'm a villager. Awesome we're both confirmed villagers, right? Obviously not.

If you're vil after all, ong, then you must appreciate that we HAVE to look you up today.

And if you're a villager, then you should be looking up everyone today.

Important point...

If there's a kill tonight, we're 3 vs 2, majority is 3, and the first bad vote can be seized uopn.
If it's 4 vs 2, majority is 4 and it takes two bad votes.

It's pretty important that people are not throwing their votes around recklessly from here on out.

[OngBonga]

I say we hit the BID wagon as soon as next day starts.

That post above refers to you more than anyone doobs.

[Hoopy]

I say we hit the BID wagon as soon as next day starts.

No way.

With JKDS somehow being a villager that means me and drew are both villagers. We both pushed a new wolf wagon rather than a existing villager wagon right near the deadline on day 2. Does not make any sense for wolves to do that.

[Hoopy]

I still think dhuber has to be a wolf here.

Regardless nobody should vote tomorrow until we've had a good discussion.

[dhubermex]

JKDS was adamant on me not being lynched. I thought that was going to be a tactic of JKDS-wolf to bury me in suspicion once he flipped the wrong side, but now that he's confirmed Villager I'm trying to read into what that meant. He said it had to be him on MMM... so do we further scrutinize MMM going into next day? That's what I'm going to do... but I have have two confirmed incorrect reads (Luco/JKDS) already. I suppose it's probably +EV for the Village right now that I don't have the WW-cred to lead a wagon, although I still think BID is a solid lynch.

There are so many pros & cons to each player now. I wish I was better at this game (maybe I'll take coaching lessons from some of the vets once this is over). When I modded I noticed a high percentage of reads are wrong regardless of a player's ability, but also noticed that there are certain players who pick up on post-tells in a way that I don't. In order to have a better chance I've got to put someone (probably two) in the solid Villager camp... I have one so far, Hoopy... so I'm going to go along with him. Lol watch me be wrong on that too.

Perhaps my best bet is to go back again and put together a list of 2-3 players who known Villagers were nearly 100% sure were Villagers and go from there. I WANT to read into the reactions... but honestly... any one of the reactions could be genuine/false. Ong's on the surface appears that most forced for sure (it was the last one too)... but that doesn't necessarily amount to anything. We'll be at 3 vs. 2 once daytime hits if there's not a save.

That's what I'm going to do... get a list of 2 who I think are Villagers and go along with them unless they're aiming for me... in which case it's going to be game over for Village. Does ANYONE remaining see the obvious Village moves I've attempted to make to communicate my alignment in ways that would be nearly impossible for a wolf to do? Certainly a wolf with my limited amount of skills? If so, that's our only chance of keeping me alive during daytime imo.

[MadMojoMonkey]

IF the rilla vote clears hoopy and BID, then the only way it doesn't clear me is if you NOW buy the JKDS argument I've reposted many times.

JKDS's call on me as vill was his dying breath.

If Hoopy, BID, and me come out of the mix as possible wolves, then dhubs, ong, key are left.

My gut is a liar, but says it's obv that key is V.

dhubs and ong left.

but again... I need to read through. I had ong as V all day yesterday, and the night before.

***

My encouragement of getting BID to howl was a 0 EV gambit to get BID-wolf to spaz claim for the glory of a howl.

JKDS/BID is clearly a JKDS controlled wolf pack, in which BID's flashes of insight (bad, bad reasoning accusations) could be coming from JKDS in wolf-chat.

Problem is... JKDS would be all, "STFU, BID; they don't know shit." if he's still in wolf-chat.
Then JKDS posted again, and the gambit was over. If he's posting here, he's posting in wolf-chat.

Now that JKDS has flipped V, the gambit is pointless.

***
Was it ong who kept saying that dhubs is too engaged with known wolves to be a wolf?
I don't know. If so, then it will give some weight to a ong/dhubs argument.

[dhubermex]

JKDS's call on me as vill was his dying breath.

Post #928 says so, but look at these...

Post #875

I got class all day today. These are my final reads

MMM: Obvious wolf.

Post #888

This kind of overreaction to two votes is extremely telling. MMM is going ballistic here. This isnt careful thinking scientist mmm, this is cornered and fighting tooth and claw to survive mmm.

He's trying to use the chart to say hes a villager, which shows that he made it to show he was a villager.

Hes saying "when i flip v, what will you do". This is a common thing for a wolf to say.

Its killing me how clear this is.

@PPL: Get off dhuber. Get on me or mmm. You need to see one of us die today

[Keybored]

Holy crap, Doobs....You've flipped AA's on MMM! I'm impressed. So, MoMo...uh, what gives?

[dhubermex]

JKDS was big on clearing Hoopy & BID. He thought Keybored was final wolf. At the time of post #875, he thought MMM was "obvious wolf" but retracted. The only other suspicious player in his mind was Ong.

Keybored being "impressed" with anything I do in WW could be a tell. Lol did I have it right days ago with the Keybored/Ong team?

[dhubermex]

So if I go by JKDS-Villager's reads and throw in Keith-Villager's insight... it's probably Ong/Keybored. Most definitely I should side with Hoopy/BID then... the choice is then whether to add MMM or Ong to my camp. Going by JKDS' "dying breath" inclines me to add MMM into the fold despite JKDS' previous read, because he did leave plenty of wiggle room for an Ong-wolf possibility.

[OngBonga]

I'm reading through d2 again.

I start by slapping down a rilla vote. Next vote is gabe voting for keyb, and keyb responds in kind. Then mojo jumps on me, citing his ong baud = v-v or w-w read.

rilla turns up and his reaction is to vote for doober. Both gabe and luco, two people who can read rilla, are villagers, so rilla is probably thinking that I've exposed him. I don't think he expects doober to get lynched, I think rilla himself expects to get lynched. He knows I had him bang to rights. So I don't think rilla's doober vote clears doober. On the contrary I think it implicates him, rilla could simply be trying to make it look like he's deflecting onto a weaker wagon, thus giving doobs village cred.

I'm unimpressed with rilla's response to me and say this is the same rilla I was wolfing with a few games back. Wolves know rilla is in trouble at this stage.

hoopy makes a comment about doober, luco defends him. keyb comes in swinging for hoopy.

More ong-rilla, luco votes rilla. daven votes jkds, giving the wolves a viable counterwagon. I hop on to put pressure on jkds. luco follows.

ok here's mojo now with his rilla vote. He clearly chooses rilla over jkds. This does look good I'll admit. But it doesn't make sense that mojo considers this a lock villager tell for him, while considering me wolfy despite a very similar post from me where I make it clear that I prefer to lynch baudib than keith.

keyb goes for jkds. This looks bad.

jkds swings for me. at this stage jkds is way ahead, then it's me, then rilla.

hoopy hops on rilla. Now the tide turns. hoopy looks outstanding here.

luco hops on too. Next up is drew, but he's reluctant, then finally I show up. rilla is done.

keyb votes doober, he kinda look better here because trying to save rilla is futile, the wolves will be resigned to losing rilla by now, I would imagine a wolf will be more self concious of how it looks to be trying to spark another wagon at this stage.

rilla flips. boom.

So... mojo does look good, but no better than I look for swinging for baudib on d1 instead of keith. Unless he's gonna argue that wolves wanted a dead wolf d1, which I don't really want to go over again.

drew hopping on felt reluctant. If he's a wolf he would expect me to turn up and vote him, so I don't feel like drew's vote is as clean as some people are thinking.

hoopy looks very good. doobs was voting for me all day.

doobs drew mojo, it's two from those three.

[dhubermex]

Holy crap, Doobs....You've flipped AA's on MMM! I'm impressed. So, MoMo...uh, what gives?

No way you're impressed with this... 0% chance. You're too good of a player. Overstated & wolfy.

[dhubermex]

doobs drew mojo, it's two from those three.

No it's not. Ong/Keybored/Mojo ... it's two from these three.

[dhubermex]

Also interested in why you would you "those" instead of "these." Could that be a POV slip? I'm going to stop posting for now but the roles are clarifying themselves. Keybored slipped with that "impressed" post... clear as day.

[OngBonga]

Those/these is a pov slip? Wow you're reaching hard.

[Keybored]

No way you're impressed with this... 0% chance. You're too good of a player. Overstated & wolfy.

Uh, yup...It didn't take a genius to put two quotes together. It's called being facetious FFS. You think I'm trying to butter up to you now just cuz you've put my name down? JKDS' death did not clear you of jack squat, so I've got no reason to change my position. Sheesh, BID and I have already loaded up the Dhoober wagon and it sets out after the NK. Hoopy looks like he'll be rolling along with us too...

[Keybored]

Also interested in why you would you "those" instead of "these." Could that be a POV slip? I'm going to stop posting for now but the roles are clarifying themselves. Keybored slipped with that "impressed" post... clear as day.

Nearly a thousand posts floating around out there/their/they're and this is what you got?
But I see you're poking a lot of ppl today and that's admirable.
But it means you've got nothing and that's unimpressive.
Or it could mean you're desperate.
Or you could be feeling that the noobs (you/I) are vulnerable right now and you're trying to tarnish me.
It's cool. Vote your conscience when the time comes.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Holy crap, Doobs....You've flipped AA's on MMM! I'm impressed. So, MoMo...uh, what gives?

I called out JKDS hard, he responded by calling me a wolf. He knew he was a villager, so a hard attack on him is surely going to make him think it's coming from a wolf, and well worth an accusation.

This whole "fighting to survive is evidence of wolfiness" is so wrong. I don't see why a villager backed into a corner has less reason to fight, especially when the vote is so clutch.
Also, what am I to do? If I answer key, then I'm "scrambling to defend myself", and if I don't, then I'm ignoring him.

***
The chart benefits everyone, but the dead thread most.
Wuf's rule change complicated the near-certainty of the revive, and I wanted to get that out there to correct myself.

This is important because it clarifies whether or not the wolves intended to drop rilla, and whether or not the votes on rilla clear anyone at all. My argument is that there has been no evidence that the dead thread was acting in such a way to prevent a revive on N1 and N2, when the wolves had control of the dead thread. Which means that the killing of rilla was a villager-lead event and not a wolf-lead event.
This is further supported by the flip of JKDS as V.
Since the JKDS-rilla vote was V-W, and the flip went to the W, then wolves would not be in pivotal roles in the lynch of rilla.
That easily clears hoopy, Luco (RIP), and probably BID.

It's hard to see ong/BID (as W/W) jumping to rilla. At the point when Hoopy/Luco jump to rilla, the vote is tied at 3 (me, hoopy, luco on rilla / daven, keybored, ong on JKDS, with the tie on JKDS.)
BID's vote was on keybored, and the day was ending soon. BID moving to rilla puts 4 on rilla, 3 on JKDS, and nails down rilla.
ong's vote lands on rilla. keybored's vote lands on dhubs.

The argument JKDS made about why I'm NOT cleared in this if he's a V didn't make sense. It's a large part of why I stayed on him. He kept failing to adequately explain how I'm a W and he's a V in that vote.

No one has made a solid argument for my involvement in the rilla vote casting me as W. JKDS's best attempt has holes in it that I blasted wide open. Anyone saying I'm W needs to answer my response to JKDS's argument. Also, they need to explain why the final post of a mislynchee is worth discrediting.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Am I wrong that it was a 3/3 tie when BID flipped to rilla?
That changes it.

[wufwugy]

Night phase totally night phased

The Living

MMM
Dhuber
Ong
BID
Hoops
Keybored

The Dead

A crazy, themed game (or ur mam)
baudib
keith
rilla
daven
gabe
luco
jkds

The Village

4 villagers
2 wolves
3 ghost angels!


Day 5 now. Gots till Monday, suckas. 4 to lynch!

[MadMojoMonkey]

Nice.

[Hoopy]

No one has made a solid argument for my involvement in the rilla vote casting me as W. JKDS's best attempt has holes in it that I blasted wide open. Anyone saying I'm W needs to answer my response to JKDS's argument. Also, they need to explain why the final post of a mislynchee is worth discrediting.

Simple theory, you voted rilla for cover and to make sure you didn't avoid fellow wolves. Maybe you planned to vote for someone else later, maybe not. But you got stuck.

The fact that it went from JKDS(4) rilla(1) to rilla(4) JKDS(3) so quickly (30mins) put you in a tricky spot. If you switched and rilla died anyway then you look bad. Not switching meant rilla was likely gone.

However it's equally possible you're a villager who stayed on a wolf, right now I'm not sure.

[Hoopy]

Nobody vote, I'm looking at you dhuber and key!

[MadMojoMonkey]

Agreed.

No votes on this day without a case made.

[dhubermex]

Cases have been made/unmade for the past few days. With the exception of a self-lynch, I will support the direction of Hoopy/BID/MMM... in that order. Having one of the Villagers saved (had to be Hoopy, right?) gives us a good chance still of nailing a wolf.

[dhubermex]

So here's my case...

Hoopy: Village - Was in the solid Village camp of the known Villagers and tendencies are heavy Village lean
BID: That same post I quoted of him backing JKDS... it now reveals heavy Village lean due to JKDS flip
MMM: The flow chart could just as easily mean Village lean, plus JKDS offered his thoughts at the end (without backtracking on any other reads I might add)
OngBonga: Was suspected by Keith early on. Also suspected by JKDS, had most "forced" reaction to JKDS arooing and also posted in the middle of my suspicion that Keybored had outed himself by paying me a compliment.
Keybored: Also suspected at some point by just about everyone. JKDS thinks he's a wolf, I now think he's a wolf and believe he compliment of me was forced in an effort to get us on an MMM wagon.

[dhubermex]

lynch Keybored

[MadMojoMonkey]

OK, dhubs, we get your point. NOW, please rescind and withhold your vote for a while.

Let us know how your thoughts evolve over the weekend.

The last thing the village needs now is a short day.


BTW: Your arguments are offensively inadequate at this stage of the game. There are important questions that need to be answered about the story that has unraveled, and you fail to even make any attempt to explain the prior lynches or noms.

I'm looking up keybored, too. I'm not saying you are wrong in your accusation. I don't know yet.

I'm saying the worst possible thing for the village is a short day... even if we think we know for certain who 1 of the wolves is, we lose advantage by shortening the discussion of who the final wolf is.

Please rescind. Keep us posted while strengthening your case.

[MadMojoMonkey]

important questions:

What was keith on about that got him nommed?

Did the wolves actually intend to kill 2 wolves on day 1 and 2?
same question: Am I (MMM) wrong about the strategy the wolves used by controlling the dead thread?

Is the daven nom as obvious as it seems? (he nailed baud in a way that must have terrified the wolves, and was cleared by gabe for that.)

Why did Luco die?

Above all:
Who's the wolf team and how does it answer all of these questions?

The right answer will make the most pieces of the puzzle fit.
It will explain things, even when certain events are ignored.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Villagers unite: please add to my list of important questions, and let's answer them one by one.

[BankItDrew]

I'll be afk for a lot, if not all, of the next 48-60 hours.

Dhuber
MMM
ong
keybored
hoopy

this is the order in which I believe the wolves are.

I'll throw a vote down later on in the game day.

[MadMojoMonkey]

WTF is happening to this game?

Dhubs does the single dumbest thing for a villager to do.

Then BID announces he's going AFK in the late game.

This game is downright retarded if either one of them is a villager acting like this. And equally retarded if they're both wolves acting like this.

If no one's going to give a shit about the outcome of this game, then let's just end it.

Fuck it. Keybored vote, I'll follow. The only read I have left is that key is V.

***
Anyway: here's what I was going to post before I read this goddamn tragedy that is going on.


Both baud and rilla gave themselves up. In retrospect, rilla basically howled, then howled some more, then said, I'm howling 'cause suck it.

Did the wolves intentionally drop the first 2? highly likely.

It explains why Keith dropped early. It explains why rilla played the way he did.

Anyone disagree? Or have anything to add?

[Keybored]

Yah...i'm afk a lot this wknd too.

[MadMojoMonkey]

[BankItDrew]

MMM, you're retarded if you think there was no possibility of real life taking priority over WW on weekends.

[Keybored]

MMM...If you're serious, I'm all in. If u got my back, I got yours. No BS. I'm throwing it out there. Dhoobs is a sleeper wolf. If you're serious, here it is. If not, then take me down.
Lynch Dhuber.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm not willing to be the only one who's putting in the effort on the game.

I believe keybored is as close to lock vil as there is.

I'm 100% neutral on ong.

It's not inconceivable that Hoopy/ong are the final 2, but I stopped reading before I got to the rilla vote because, (see above).
I have no case for that, and I'm not dropping a hint... I'm just saying it's not ruled out. The only things I've ruled out are any combo with me or key... and even that could use a re-vamp, just for thoroughness.

BID... idk... I doubt dhubs and BID as a team could flummox JKDS, hoopy and ong. It doesn't give any explanation for Keith.

But if this is dhubs villager game, then it's absolute garbage and he should be a standard day 1 lynch for the foreseeable future.

lynch dhubermex

[Hoopy]

Why are we voting so early???????

That's not a smart thing to do!

[Hoopy]

I'm not willing to be the only one who's putting in the effort on the game.

Just a heads up, both me and Ong are UK based. So we'll be asleep when it's the US evening.

Unless Ong took too many "happy pills" again.

[Hoopy]

important questions:

What was keith on about that got him nommed?

He wanted to put villagers in the dead thread, he thought that controlling it was the best thing for the village. The wolves might have gone for hime to implicate someone (can't remember who).

Did the wolves actually intend to kill 2 wolves on day 1 and 2?
same question: Am I (MMM) wrong about the strategy the wolves used by controlling the dead thread?

This is basically asking is it more valuable for the wolves to have a free night kill? Or is it better to have more wolves? I think keeping the wolf teams numbers up is better. Day 2 couldn't have been a planned wolf kill at least.

Is the daven nom as obvious as it seems? (he nailed baud in a way that must have terrified the wolves, and was cleared by gabe for that.)

He was basically confirmed village day 2, so yeah pretty obvious I'd say.

Why did Luco die?

Because he was hard to make a case against after the rilla wagon and is a beast at wolf hunting.

Above all:
Who's the wolf team and how does it answer all of these questions?

dhuber - For being softly attacked by baudib on day 1, being disconnected from the village in terms of his thinking and for his wolfy early vote today.

The second one is tricky.

[Hoopy]

Right after baudwolf messed up his numbers.

I'm not sure I like ong's argument against baud's bad numbers - merely because baud corrected them himself before anyone else pointed out his mistake.

If it was a wolf mistake, then sure, the wolf thread could have corrected baud... but then... If baud's argument is that he's bad at numbers, then it's probably better to not correct himself and just play the bad-math card when it comes up.

That seems to have gone unnoticed in ong's analysis of the bad number-thinking of baud.

MMM = pretty much a villager for his analysis

I can't believe this is even gonna be a thing but: I got excited thinking that we had a 50-50 shot at blocking the night kill because we could protect up to 4 villagers...I was thinking of the village population, not wolves...it actually is possible to protect half the village but obviously we'd have to get the right ones.

baudib has posted the most, so obv the easiest target. I'm slanting village on him, though for a couple of reasons:
He's actually saying something in his posts... at least some of them.
He seems to be dropping a lot of half-baked posts that he is immediately revising. I assume a wolf would be a bit more self-critical before submitting the post.
Especially IF they keep going back to the wolf thread and getting reminded that they're screwing up again... Would baud make that mistake over and over? I don't think so.

This exchange is very interesting. It doesn't make sense with MMM as a wolf.

If the wolves wanted baudib in the dead thread then MMM shouldn't be defending him here, get some villager credit by pushing his wagon.

If the wolves were playing normally then this is a ballsy/risky move to defend a fellow wolf so obviously when he might get a big wagon quickly.

Baudib calling MMM near confirmed is unlikely if both are wolves.

Villager points for MMM.

[Hoopy]

Hoopy feels like normal Hoopy, I actually haven't seen him wolf before.

It might also point to a wolf or two in Daven/Rilla.

I'm going to avoid quoting anyone's posts for a while.

Keybored: Glad you're back. I just got done a game where people averaged ~100 posts per game day.

Dhuber: Care to address your vanilla comment? There are no specials this game so there's no need to protect your identity ... unless you're a wolf.

Strongest village reads so far are MMM/Hoopy.

Keybored looks good but it's like two posts.

I think baudib is the type of wolf who would be hyper aware of not avoiding other wolves.

[Keybored]

Folks...If u believe the wolf pack self-lynched 2 off the get go (Baud then Rilla) then who'd they roll the dice with to win it? Or, if u believe Baud truly just fucked up and then Rilla simply tossed in the towel; then who'd he leave behind to carry on? Which ever path you're on, u have to ask yourself this first: Is the wolf pair that has successfuly nailed everyone since then made up of 2 regs or a reg/noob?
I maintain that we're on the latter path with the latter wolf pair.

Cuz this: Rilla actually showed up late to game, saw first his team makeup, then read the funky game rules, then read Baud's death spiral already underway. And he was pissed. U can see his frustration with nearly every post made. He wasn't happy with the game nor with his team. Thus, I think the wolves originally were 2 regs and 2 noobs. Cuz no way does Rilla bails on 2 regs after Baud dies. But Rilla would easily bail on 2 noobs (extremely unlikely wolf team, BTW) or a 1 reg/1 noob pairing. And that's what he did. Simple as that, no grand scheme by the wolves to kill 2 then win with 2v9.

So, which reg/noob teaming has done this?
KB/BID -- KB/HOOPY-- KB/MMM -- KB/ONG
or
DOOBS/BID -- DOOBS/HOOPY -- DOOBS/MMM -- DOOBS/ONG

Who did Rilla bail on?
MMM just nomd Dhoobs, he's out.
Hoopy spews villager whole game, out.
Ong is a hot prospect but mostly V to me.
BID is my choice tho.
BID shouts 'Kill Dhoobs' last night but don't. Trying to detract. BID is good enuf. He/Doobs are perfect for this.

Nail Dhoobs now and we're golden.
Or make a case for your own wolf team.
Regardless, don't vote to lynch looking at just 1 guy.
Find the team that you think did this, then vote.

[Hoopy]

If we go with the idea that the wolves didn't want to dominate the dead thread, then things are interesting.

I was one of those butthurt by CigBut.
And I wasn't aware of that Gabe quote.
LYNCH BAUDIB

Puts baudib on 1, middle of day 1.

LOL good to see you back in form Keybored.

This is fence sitting at its finest. You're contradicting yourself while refusing to take a position on keith. And you finish off by deflecting onto someone else.

Wolfy as fuck.

lynch baudib

Still not overly happy with keith's attack but that can wait.

2nd vote.
Now this looks villager from ong.

LOL

I love how you guys insist on mislynching me every game when I keep proving that this is villagery behavior from me.

Ong, Keith, anyone...are you really not alarmed at all by Dhuber's vanilla claim? I mean WTF is that.

I'm ok with me/Huber wagons. Keep in mind how tight the villager-wolf ratio is here.

I agree, no point taking out a top poster without better evidence (Keith is passionate, but I also think he's wrong).
That leaves us with lurkers: Rilla (actually, he's an inactive) and JKDS.
I realize Rilla is some kinda super-hero and basically untouchable; but I don't know JKDS.
So...with ~9 hours left in this 4-days long d1, I'm down with a lurker vote.
Rescind and LYNCH JKDS

Rescinding baudib when he was picking up steam late now looks bad.

lynch Keith

1. If you think they're a wolf, lynch them.

2. If the village loses with 4 night angels, we get to guaranteed blocks and 2 player revives.

If they wanted baudib in the dead thread then why would rilla not stay on him? He did the vote then quick switch to keith.

Post #115

Between Ong and baud, I find what could be seen as "double-talk" in baud's posts.

This post is one example.

Baud is pointing attention at Daven, but leaves his vote on Ong.

This attention on Daven is suspect since it comes after the JKDS post about lynching an inactive on day1, and daven had not yet "activated".

rescind Luco

lynch baudib

More MMM villager credit.

jkds - ong
luco - keith
mmm - baud
rilla - keith
key - jkds
keith - bid
gabe - baud
dhubs - ong
bid - ong
baud - ong
ong - baud
daven - baud

hoopy - nobody

ong - 4
keith - 2
baud - 4 (lead)
jkds - 1
bid - 1

The wolves did not play day 1 like they wanted a wolf dead, unless ong is somehow a wolf.

[OngBonga]

Just a heads up, both me and Ong are UK based. So we'll be asleep when it's the US evening.

Unless Ong took too many "happy pills" again.

lol not a million miles away.

I'm here, I'll do something when this headaches goes away.

[OngBonga]

So why are people voting already? Might I remind everyone that we can lose tonight if we mislynch today.

[MadMojoMonkey]

If hoopy's in, and keybored is in, then I'm not throwing in the towel.

rescind dhubermex

My critique stands, though. If dhubs is a vil, then his V-game is completely unhelpful to his team.

[MadMojoMonkey]

lol get some sleep keith and we'll discuss this tomorrow.

This makes my eye twitch. It's during night 1. I could ask whether or not this is, in fact, vil cred. for ong... but the choice of words ong uses here is off. It sticks out somehow... I don't know. It makes my eyes twitch.

***

The only concern I have with baudib getting the lynch is that the wolves may have very well gone into this game with the plan of controlling the ghost angel, while at the same time cinching others as lock villagers.

This is thoughtfully coherent, not deep, but also not the norm from BID.

Daven soothes BID's concerns.

there is no combination of four wolves that is this stupid, so don't worry your pretty head doll

This is weird. Daven is feeling good about his soul-read on baud, and perhaps a bit gloaty
(Like my "little puppy" comment. Sorry JKDS. Then again, you prob. thought that was funny as hell, din'tya)

I think he may have over-attached to BID's "gone into this game" comment.
Because it seems like the wolves latched onto BID's concern as a valid plan B.

Daven's read is based off timing and being inside baud's head. With Daven confirmed, this is almost def. true. Gabe agreed, and gabe is confirmed, too. This means that a double-level move from baud is highly unlikely.
Strengthened by the rapidity of baud's mistakes. There was no time for the wolves to create a strategy yet.


The wolves couldn't have decided to have baud make a POV slip in his first posts, to set up the day. There wasn't time.

***
If the wolves "switched to plan B" then rilla's disinterest was totally faked. That gives us timing on the wolves plan as prior to end of day 1.

This seems likely, because why would rilla have not PM'd wuf that he didn't like the format and wanted to not play. If he's really that unhappy with things, would rilla just screw his team over instead of telling wuf to find an alternate?

[MadMojoMonkey]

#87

but consider two wolves making themselves the lead wagons on day1 and pointing at each other , one dies and controls the dead thread, gets rid of the ghosts and the revival ability the other gets villager credit for leading the attack on the wolf and no seer to look them up to verify their role.I must have caused panic in the den when i showed what your plan was, you were already committed by then.

Keith quotes one of ong's attacks, in which ong has bolded keith.

A) Keith's prediction of the wolves use of the dead thread is what I was expecting from a wolf-controlled thread.
We were def. and obv. wrong here.

These predictions on the use of the dead thread domination are not why keith got nommed.

***
What is this?

#317

This is more like it keith.

This post of doober's is the most stand out post I can find with the knowledge baudib is a wolf. Here doober is avoiding a wolf wagon while sitting on the fence of two villager wagons. He votes for keith but leaves the door open to switch to me later.

Also JKDS' push at me could be an attempt to move votes away from baudib. It also has a pre-emptive feel about it, it feels like he's expecting me to come swinging for him and is countering what he's anticipating before I attack. It feels weird.

doober and JKDS my picks based on baudib flip.

#977

lol nice. As it happened, I did fistpump. And as it happens, I'm pretty sure I fistpump as either alignment.

When I bahahaha, that's where I fistpump. Shortly after I notice jkds posts "joke's on you guys", and that's where I decide to wait for the flip.

It's interesting that you've found a reason to turn on me already. Having drew as a wolf for saying "sick" is pretty thin too. His reaction to the town flip was to laugh in the thread. I'm not so sure a wolf does that.

mojo for sure, probably doobs too. He's preparing to turn on me and drew too.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@hoopy: What do you think of BID/dhubs as final 2?

[Hoopy]

From what I've seen the wolves did not aim to control the dead thread.

Killing wolves deliberately means the game inevitably lasts longer because the village can get more lynches wrong before parity. Longer game is better for the village.

Wolves had 66% to get a successful night 1 kill with a dead villager in control. 100% chance with a dead wolf, but the increase of 34% for 1 night isn't worth 1 wolf.

Even if the wolves were blocked every night this game would be done after 5 days.

Now obviously the revive will effect this, I'm not sure how.

[OngBonga]

I am BORED of reading this fucking thread.

mojo are you asking me a question that you expect an answer to when you say "what is this"? I kind of want to answer sarcastically but in the mood I'm in it'll just come across as pissy.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I just want this thread active.

There's a ton of info, and this game should be EZ.

I don't care if you ignore all questions and just focus on giving your own reads (for a while).

Just get in the game.

There's only 6 peeps left.

FFS, ong, you're unreadable to me, and I don't like it one bit.

Please give some solid reads and arguments for where we are today.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I am BORED of reading this fucking thread.

mojo are you asking me a question that you expect an answer to when you say "what is this"? I kind of want to answer sarcastically but in the mood I'm in it'll just come across as pissy.

Then vote dhubs and end it. I'll hop right back with you.

Between BID and dhubs, and now you... I'm out again.

Your game, hoopy.

lynch dhubermex

[OngBonga]

Then vote dhubs and end it. [/B]

Why will it "end it"?

[Hoopy]

@hoopy: What do you think of BID/dhubs as final 2?

Drew is cleared from the rilla lynch and I won't vote for him today. dhuber is wolfy as hell and needs to go.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Why will it "end it"?

Because I don't believe either me or keybored is a wolf, and if you vote dhubs, then regardless of your role, the wolves can do what they want.

What do you think of BID/dhubs as final 2?

[MadMojoMonkey]

More to the point, what do you think of hoopy's argument that the rilla vote clears him and BID?

You must realize that to me, the 2 wolves are in {dhubs, BID, ong, hoopy}.
If the rilla vote clears hoopy and BID, then you obviously have to be my target, ong.

If you don't think the vote clears hoopy and BID, then dhubs and who?
If you say me or keybored, again... I have to target you.

So ong... is it BID/dhubs, hoopy/BID, hoopy/dhubs?

and hoopy... is it BID/dhubs, BID/ong, dhubs/ong?

[OngBonga]

Because I don't believe either me or keybored is a wolf, and if you vote dhubs, then regardless of your role, the wolves can do what they want.

What do you think of BID/dhubs as final 2?

But lynching a wolf won't end it. Lynching a villager might. This feels like a slip. Why would a villager say "end it"?

More to the point, what do you think of hoopy's argument that the rilla vote clears him and BID?

I think if hoopy is a wolf then drew is his buddy. I don't think that's very likely but it's possible they threw rilla under the bus to give the two of them enough village cred to cruise to victory. But that's my paranoia talking there. Logic tells me it's not them two because it's you and one more.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I said 'end it' because everyone is checking out and making excuses for not posting ITT, and WTF!?!

The best way to end it is to vote and let shit slide.

Do you actually care to help the village win, ong? Where's your fire? Where's you pushing out the impossible and looking at what's left. Why are you incapable of coming down hard as V or W on anyone?

Where are your cases?

lynch ong

[MadMojoMonkey]

hoopy's Carlton happy dance more compelling than ong's fake fistpump.

ong a devious player

JKDS cleared me with his dying breath.

ong focused on tiny slips instead of creating a compelling story.

ong not gnashing his teeth and naming names.

[Hoopy]

and hoopy... is it BID/dhubs, BID/ong, dhubs/ong?

It's dhubs/keybored.

[Hoopy]

Everyone else has something to clear them, dhubs and keybored do not. I prefer dhubs today as I'm more confident on him.

[Keybored]

Back on d1, Dhuber acknowledges the benefit of a prolonged discussion (d1 lasted 96 hrs).

Extending Day 1 to Tuesday is good news for Village imo ...

I chastise for the quick lynch after Luco dies...

Dhuber posted his lynch nom 3 minutes after Luco's death announcement. He didn't scratch his head and wonder why Luco died or what it means to the village. He didn't take time to wonder who would have done that. He didn't try to factor this new info into any of the past events. An overconfident, superior wolf pops off, "let's string up the next one" in under 3 minutes.

Today, Hoopy asks for time to do the right thing, but pressures Dhuber...

Nobody vote, I'm looking at you dhuber and key!

Shortly thereafter, MoMo also asks us to chill and do this right...

Agreed. No votes on this day without a case made.

Dhuber buddies up to Hoopy and says he'll do what he does...

With the exception of a self-lynch, I will support the direction of Hoopy/BID/MMM...in that order.

A few minutes later, 1h10m into this day, Get 'er Dun Dhuber votes...

lynch Keybored

MoMo pleads directly to Dhuber to hold his horse...

OK, dhubs, we get your point. NOW, please rescind and withhold your vote for a while. Let us know how your thoughts evolve over the weekend. The last thing the village needs now is a short day. I'm saying the worst possible thing for the village is a short day...even if we think we know for certain who 1 of the wolves is, we lose advantage by shortening the discussion of who the final wolf is. Please rescind. Keep us posted while strengthening your case.

Nothing from Hit-&-Git Dhuber in the last 24hrs...

[Keybored]

Everyone else has something to clear them, dhubs and keybored do not. I prefer dhubs today as I'm more confident on him.

Cleared from what, Hoops? Something specific or the entire game?

[OngBonga]

mojo is way too spazzy with his vote here. He's jumping on anything that moves.

Where's my fire? Do I really need to explain myself on a saturday? I don't do hangovers very well these days. I'm getting old. It's funny because if I were a wolf I'd probably have a greater sense of obligation to make it look like I'm doing stuff. ofc I'm not seriously expecting people to consider laziness to be a town tell for me because that's stupid, but I think it's telling that you're prepared to throw your vote around today on thin grounds. I mean you ask me where my fire is but you don't wait for a response before voting. You're either a sloppy villager or a frustrated wolf. I'm somewhat frustrated but not to the point of fuck it lynch whoever. You're not looking like a villager here.

My problem with your "end it" comment is it gives me the impression that you expect a doober lynch to end the game. Now why would you think that?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I've spent hours on this thread, and to hear people just flat out saying they're not going to play for the majority of the game-day pisses me off. I've tried to make that clear.

My vote on dhubs is spazzy, sure, but not unwarranted.

I don't like your answers so I bolded you. What's spazzy about that? You do it all the time.

I think you're as likely to be a wolf as dhubs right now, so I don't feel my vote on you is unwarranted. Your role in sinking 2 for 2 was a great start, but there's strong reason to think that the wolves wanted to sink 2 in 2 (at least by the time rilla started posting). This is evident in that rilla literally hung himself and nothing else this game.

So no one's roll in rilla death is worth any V-cred, the way I see it.

What if what keith was right about was his ong-wolf theory? That would sure as hell scare ong-wolf into nomming keith. We all know keith doesn't give up a target easily.
Is this incriminating? idk
Daven confirming the baud timing tell is scary to any wolf-pack.. so idk.
Was JKDS 2 swings and 2 misses this game? idk.
I thought there was a high liklihood of W-W or V-V on day 1. idk

Is there anything after the rilla vote that you think gives you villager cred, ong?

[MadMojoMonkey]

JKDS made a long stream of posts when he was getting votes on day 2.
This culminates with this post #398

lynch ong. [bold removed for quote]]

I dont think that daven is a wolf. I think the wolves were forced into kill keith. If ong is a wolf, his own thougths indicate the wolves thought keith was villagery. If ong is a villager, then Keith is wrong, and why the fuck didnt daven die?

Its Ong, if right, then Rilla. If wrong, daven should die.

He came down on the right side of rilla, and calls out ong.

Here's JKDS post #411, his final post before the vote shifted to rilla.

Im gonna die. Thats cool.

Listen to me village. Strongly consider why it made sense to kill Keith over Daven night1. Did wolves really do it to level? Have they ever done this night1 (not that I can recall). Has anyone but me pushed it? Not unless I missed a few posts. Have wolves killed threats before in a level0 manner? Yes they have. Does it make sense to kill keith if daven is a wolf? Yes it does.

Lastly, do we generally not look at motivation behind night kills? Yes we do.

Know that these thoughts come from a villager, and respond accordingly tomorrow.

Dhuber is almost certainly a villager. Hoopy, luco, and MMM are very likely villagers if keith is right. However, if keith is wrong, each has sheilded Baudib from pressure earlier in day1.

Thats all i got.

says dhubs is almost certainly V.
Also names Hoopy, Luco, and me as a group... looks nice for hoopy.

#441 after the rilla lynch

Im pretty sure the last two wolves are Ong + Keybored. Everyone else has something to clear them substantially. Hell, throw me in there. W/e, we still win.

You guys better give keith a pat on the back

JKDS doesn't like keybored.

#450

Something to note though

Both Baudib AND Rilla have been trying to lynch Dhuber. BID just pointed out that Keybored randomly switched to him instead of rilla. That is huge, especially since we now know that Dhuber is almost certainly a villager. (Especially given what he said when Baudib could have been modkilled, see one of my last posts).

Its ong and keybored for sure.

JKDS is pretty certain dhubs is a villager.
still hatin' on ong and keybored.

[OngBonga]

Is there anything after the rilla vote that you think gives you villager cred, ong?

Well let's see... I was on two wolf wagons, wasn't on two mislynch wagons, and then there's the luco kill which is probably the worst kill ongwolf can make. I actually think I'd have been better off missing and leaving luco alive, seeing as he was my only friend at one point.

You're pointing to jkds' posts where he has bad things to say about me. That's great. How about the bits where he comes down on you? How about the bits where he says I'm a villager? Nah you'll leave that out because it doesn't suit your agenda. Rather like pointing to your rilla vote in your defence while suggesting I'm a wolf despite choosing baudib over keith.

I've spent hours on this thread, and to hear people just flat out saying they're not going to play for the majority of the game-day pisses me off. I've tried to make that clear.

I've put hours of work in too. I don't expect people to put their social lives or whatever on hold just for an internet game. I'm certainly not going to.

I think you're feigning frustration here. This doesn't feel right at all. I don't see anyone else complaining about low activity on a weekend. You must be wolfing here mojo.

[dhubermex]

I commend everyone's effort in this match. Although some of you may not believe so, I have put in effort as well. The simple fact is some combination of (A) I don't have the ability that most or all of you have, and (B) I've already read the thread completely once.. have browsed over it a couple of other times, and start getting a headache whenever I (imo) over-analyze things.

I'm comfortable with my reads right now that Ong/Keybored are the final two wolves. That's as good as I can do considering my ability. I'm confident that I've done the best I can do, am also confident that other players are better at soul-reading, and if it turns out I'm right great, and if not, well... I won't be the first WW player to be incorrect.

As far as I can see, there's no "100% lock" for wolf in this bunch. Everyone has clearing and damning info for or against. If this were my first WW match, I may have tended more on the side of obvious info that points to a player's culpability (which may exist), but I don't see it. And if I don't see it, then there's really no other player who's going to convince me otherwise so I have to vote what I believe. Keybored, Ong, and MMM... in that order, are who I would vote to lynch during this Day cycle.

I'm very interested in seeing the dead thread once this is over and analyzing the better players' opinions there as well to see which players were correct/incorrect in their assumptions, which I'm sure there are plenty of. For what it's worth, I think MMM's, Keybored's and any other player's insistence that we work hard on this is valid, but at some point the analyzing gets all confused on my end and I'm much more comfortable going with my initial reads, known info and the JKDS psych-out reactions.

I'm doing my best, but also have to work and enjoy the weekend like everyone else. If I felt the extra analysis actually moved me toward a more solid conclusion, that would make me enjoy it. But it's not... it's just confusing me more. So however this match turns out, gg to all and I enjoyed playing in it and look forward to playing in future matches if I'm invited.

[Keybored]

So I'm going over vote data and I came upon a slip. I don't know how important it is but I think it should be mentioned. I'd like to know what others think. On D2, we voted to lynch Rilla. Quoted below are BIDs only two votes that day. His first nom is Keybored:

keith was probably the best villager up to this point. On the other hand, he'll make for a good angel. I'm willing to jump on an ong or keyborred wagon the moment it starts. fuck it
lynch keyborred
If it's a tight race between ong and someone else, I'm gladly switch to ong.

In BID's second vote, he votes to RESCIND ONG...then votes Rilla:

1) rilla has been lazy this game
2) JKDS showed a lot of heart and effort just now, more than most wolves would ever make
3) my vote on ong seems to be pointless right now
Therefore, rescind ong lynch rilla

BID was sitting on a KB nom but said rescind Ong.
I've analyzed every single vote cast on each day and this is the only slip I've found.

Obv, he'll claim that Ong was clearly on his mind.
But nobody else has made this mistake in the nearly 100 votes cast to date.
Does this slip mean anything?

[Keybored]

It's dhubs/keybored.

Hoops...do you honestly believe two noobs are pulling this off? I understand poking one of us at a time to gain info. If it's a poke, it's elementary and you're clearly more capable. This conclusion has me questioning your entire game now.