No theme werewolf gameplay thread

[BankItDrew]

I think dhuber was the only one to put luco in his wolfy list.

Not sure is that means anything or not.

[dhubermex]

Lynch OngBonga

[OngBonga]

Paraphrased: "Lets not do Vote Count Analysis, as it would catch Keybored". "I need to wolf thread, so heres an excuse".

So... you realise that this is totally neutral, don't you? Whether I'm villager or wolf, I've been on the defensive for three game days solid and needed to take a day off to recharge. But that doesn't matter to you that it's null. You lunge at me anyway. This isn't villager JKDS. You don't make lame attacks on people. Your case on me has been ong does this as villager and he's not doing it. Much like last game. I'm not even sure what your case on keyb is. You have no more wolf reads and it's very unlike you to have that much confidence in your reads that you won't look elsewhere.

If you're not a wolf then idk what the hell you're doing.

I think today has got to be jkds vs ong because this can't go on any longer.

lynch jkds

[OngBonga]

Lynch OngBonga

sup doobs.

I think you need to talk us through the evolution of your read on me.

[Keybored]

Where did that kill come from? Kid's been on nobody's radar and plays house mum during disputes.
I feel like my cat just got run over. I'm gonna go have a drink and try to rethink.
Wait. gotta pop off here a bit first...

1) Wolf strategy to deflect something
2) Bottom of the list of estimated Angel Protects
3) Soft kill for easy pickins
4) Kid was getting under somebody's skin bigtime
5) Previous game hate crime

Eh, gg Luco.

[BankItDrew]

He was probably nommed because he had the highest village cred.

[MadMojoMonkey]

lynch JKDS

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't know if it's possible there's not a wolf in the ong/JKDS battle.

If I'm wrong about that, it's gg.

I think the wolf is JKDS for reasons I've stated.

If JKDS is NOT a wolf, then village needs to either save tonight or catch a wolf tomorrow to survive.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm not sure it helps, but I can't but wonder:

How did the dead thread cast 4 votes onto 6 living and not save Luco?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Oh.. it was 4 onto 8... I'm stuck thinking about what happens after the JKDS/ong thing is sorted.

[MadMojoMonkey]

JKDS lynch:

If JKDS flips V, then the rilla wagon clears me, hoopy, BID, ong
Leaving keybored, doobs

key is V, so there's no combo there.


If JKDS flips W, then the rilla wagon was in saving another wolf, so no V-cred comes from that.
but it clears ong.

leaving me, key, hoopy, doobs, BID
Even without me and key, there's some strange in there.

***
If you believe there is exactly 1 wolf in ong/JKDS, and you believe that it's ong...
then...
You believe that ong, as a wolf, flipped to rilla instead of making any attempt at all to deflect votes, when 3 of the votes on rilla were weakly justified when they were cast.
You believe that ong voted rilla into the dead thread as w-w, and that this was part of some plan.

You need to state that plan if you want to move my vote to ong.

[OngBonga]

Did mmm just slip like baudib did?

[OngBonga]

baudib made a slip with numbers that showed a wolf pov. ofc he brushed it off but I was right. mojo just did the same. From a wolf pov, they see 6 villagers. But ofc villagers see 7 unknowns, and the dead thread see 8. 6 is a number a wolf comes up with.

And his immediate excuse of excusing me and jkds is weird.

I think mojo just did a baudib.

Holy fuck it's jkds and mojo.

[Hoopy]

We don't want to be bolding this early today, lets take our time and get it right.

[OngBonga]

If JKDS flips V, then the rilla wagon clears me, hoopy, BID, ong

Actually I'm not so sure about mojo-jkds. mojo is expecting to be cleared based on a jkds v flip.

mojo wolf implies jkds villager I think.

rescind

I need to read through mmm's posts without jkds blinkers on. I'll do that after sleep.

[JKDS]

You know, I'm looking through his posts on Baudib...if i'm wrong on this keith thing...which im starting to think i am...then mmm is defending baudib early in the game. He does eventually vote him, but im not convinced hes as villagery as i thought he was.

[Keybored]

Did mmm just slip like baudib did?

Whoa!! Anyone else feel that??

[MadMojoMonkey]

baudib made a slip with numbers that showed a wolf pov. ofc he brushed it off but I was right. mojo just did the same. From a wolf pov, they see 6 villagers. But ofc villagers see 7 unknowns, and the dead thread see 8. 6 is a number a wolf comes up with.

And his immediate excuse of excusing me and jkds is weird.

I think mojo just did a baudib.

Holy fuck it's jkds and mojo.

Nah, I was looking at what happens to the numbers when flips happen... so my head was thinking about the coming night after a JKDS vs ong wagon.

Dig me up, ong. You've been so focused on JKDS that the village needs your input across the field.

[Keybored]

I've been weary about MadMoMo b4 but not totally sure.
It's waaaaay too deep in the game to make that slip.
I don't need a relook...
Lynch MadMonkey

[JKDS]

I'm not sure I like ong's argument against baud's bad numbers - merely because baud corrected them himself before anyone else pointed out his mistake.

If it was a wolf mistake, then sure, the wolf thread could have corrected baud... but then... If baud's argument is that he's bad at numbers, then it's probably better to not correct himself and just play the bad-math card when it comes up.

That seems to have gone unnoticed in ong's analysis of the bad number-thinking of baud.

baudib has posted the most, so obv the easiest target. I'm slanting village on him, though for a couple of reasons:
He's actually saying something in his posts... at least some of them.
He seems to be dropping a lot of half-baked posts that he is immediately revising. I assume a wolf would be a bit more self-critical before submitting the post.
Especially IF they keep going back to the wolf thread and getting reminded that they're screwing up again... Would baud make that mistake over and over? I don't think so.

Ong has dropped the 2nd most posts, but as ever, Ong is a mystery to me in the early game. I defended his poo-slinging in my first game, thinking he was just instigating - he turned out to be a wolf. So live and learn.

If pressed to guess, I would assume that the huge dialogue between Ong and baud puts them on the same team more often than not... I'm slanting vil for baud, so I'm slanting vil for Ong.

Kieth has his head in the game, so I'm leaning toward vil on him, too.

Pretty much the same goes for JKDS, except he always comes across as wolfy to me, so yeah.
I'm saying his game seems very balanced to me, and I have no read.

***
BID and huber have each only dropped 1 post, and it was not a game post (dhuber clarified the lack of mod-bot, but it's not an in-game post). Both of these posts are in the early part of day 1, so the lack of in-game content is to be expected.

I agree with Luco (#56) , but someone was going to say it, so it's kind of a read-proof post.

***
There are 4 people who have yet to post:
Gabe
Rillz
Keybored
Daven

I doubt they're all wolves.

Given that list and players' reputations, no one's getting on a gabe wagon on day 1... same for daven... probably same for rilla.... I don't know keybored, so that seems the best lynch at this time.


lynch keybored

Its really interesting that mmm had this much to say on baudib when ong was attacking him with numbers. If ong isnt a wolf somehow, then i dont see the wolves intentionally putting baudib in the thread. If thats the case, they may be defending baudib, and mmm certainly seems to be doing that here when the wagon is gainning steam.

Notice how he lists rilla as suspect here, but it isnt the person he votes too. Thats minor, but it is supportive of a mmm-baudib-rilla team.

[Hoopy]

Where did that kill come from? Kid's been on nobody's radar and plays house mum during disputes.
I feel like my cat just got run over. I'm gonna go have a drink and try to rethink.
Wait. gotta pop off here a bit first...

1) Wolf strategy to deflect something
2) Bottom of the list of estimated Angel Protects
3) Soft kill for easy pickins
4) Kid was getting under somebody's skin bigtime
5) Previous game hate crime

Eh, gg Luco.

Luco was the most villager out of everyone, that's why he got nommed. Very simple really.

What happened with the protects is anyone's guess.

[MadMojoMonkey]

You need a story to convict, key. Don't throw it away now.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Look at the whole day1, JKDS... What else was there to talk about when I made that post? What did I do to finish the day?

[JKDS]

Link to this post, cuz its weird quoted http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...98#post2213398

The first time I read this, I figured that if baud was wolfin, then the other wolves would be split with 1 in each of his groups here:

#126

... which meshes perfectly well with this:


I must admit that this is a really soft read.

***
My brother is visiting now, so I'm short on time. I'll be back in a few hours.

He soft reads the wolves into gabe, huber, jkds, rilla. But then votes ong next

Ong repeatedly trying to start a Keith wagon doesn't look good for him.

Keith was full of hate for Ong all the way.

I already thought the Ong-baud thing was either V-V or W-W.

lynch OngBonga

This is when ong is trying to lynch rilla (for whatever reasons). Is this a defense of rilla?

But later...

Three votes on JKDS, all quick and without a case made.

I have trouble seeing through JKDS, so someone make the case.

***
Rilla is wolfy as sin - overly, blatantly wolfy - and he's asking for a pass... 'cause lolz.


lynch a500lbgorilla

Rilla's wagon is dying down when this vote was made, and iirc he leaves it here till rilla gets insta lynched later.

I can see mmm being a wolf and making this post. Rilla's heat is down, and the consensus was that rilla was wolfy. But mmm hasnt said rilla was 'wolfy as sin' before. This is the first serious claim that rilla is wolfy, and its at a time when rilla is, theoretically, safe.

I'm not convinced on mmm anymore.

[JKDS]

Look at the whole day1, JKDS... What else was there to talk about when I made that post? What did I do to finish the day?

The rest of the day you said keith was wolfy, and voted him. You said luco was wolfy, and voted him. And when baudib was in the lead, you made some weak reasoning involving "double talk", and then was the last to vote him.

I feel like im stupid, and ong has just been owning you guys the whole time.

[JKDS]

I have to admit mmm wolf makes a ton more sense than ong wolf :/

[Keybored]

You need a story to convict, key. Don't throw it away now.

Fair enuf...i'll make another look from my last MMM read. It was a while ago. But damn, i gots shivers.

[MadMojoMonkey]

So on day 1, I was throwing around votes, coaxing out inactives, and then put the closing vote in on a wolf.

You think I was instrumental in bagging rilla.

and you come down on me as more wolfy than ong?!?

OK... what's the wolves play? Why did the wolves orchestrate their own castration? For control of the dead thread?
What has it gained them? The more angel saves there are in the late game, the more advantage to the village.

As I've pointed out, it's going to be a near certainty that the revive happens now. What is worse for the wolves than that?

[JKDS]

If mmm is a wolf, and ong a villager, then keybored is unlikely to be a wolf due to his quick vote for mmm. That means im wrong on either hoopy/bid/ or dhuber. But the wolves have been voting dhuber, so i dont like him for a wolf, and why would hoopy/bid ever kill rilla like that when i could die instead. Wtf is going on here.

[JKDS]

So on day 1, I was throwing around votes, coaxing out inactives, and then put the closing vote in on a wolf.

You think I was instrumental in bagging rilla.

and you come down on me as more wolfy than ong?!?

OK... what's the wolves play? Why did the wolves orchestrate their own castration? For control of the dead thread?
What has it gained them? The more angel saves there are in the late game, the more advantage to the village.

As I've pointed out, it's going to be a near certainty that the revive happens now. What is worse for the wolves than that?

Exaggeration isnt like you. Keith was not an inactive. And your vote on baudib seems to be irrelevant since baudib was already in the lead and the reasoning seems forced.

Im not argunig they wanted rilla dead, far from it. Your actions during day 2 look like youre avoiding rilla, and then voting him out of nowhere when the heat is on me. Its a bizarre vote from you, and can be justified without needing the wolves to be super leveling and wanting two wolves dead.

[Keybored]

If mmm is a wolf, and ong a villager, then keybored is unlikely to be a wolf due to his quick vote for mmm. That means im wrong on either hoopy/bid/ or dhuber. But the wolves have been voting dhuber, so i dont like him for a wolf, and why would hoopy/bid ever kill rilla like that when i could die instead. Wtf is going on here.

Crap, JKDS...for the first time in this game I think I agree with you (say wha?).

WTF just happened?? I don't even know where to begin...
First, I wanted to make a Luco connection to someone.
Then Dhuber snaps Ong without even taking time to think about what the V-Luco kill means to the game.
Then MMM rocks the house.
Then Ong pulls outta JKDS (YGBFKM).
Then JKDS rolls off Ong (was it good 4u2).
Hell, even Hoopy's posting at night (it's waaay past yur bedtime, young man, it's NC-17 time)!!

I swear, if BID rolls in here and adds to this craziness, I'm getting drunk.

PS, go Giants!!

[MadMojoMonkey]

Exaggeration isnt like you. Keith was not an inactive. And your vote on baudib seems to be irrelevant since baudib was already in the lead and the reasoning seems forced.

My reasoning was perhaps forced, that's fair. I wasn't feeling confident about the village bagging a wolf on day 1. I don't follow daven's read, I don't know why it popped so much to gabe. I was going off of the baud/ong interaction, and I was disappointed that the wagons had circled down to the top 2 volume posters ITT going head to head. I thought it was v/v or w/w, and I made my pick from the 2 wagons that were rolling.

Im not argunig they wanted rilla dead, far from it. Your actions during day 2 look like youre avoiding rilla, and then voting him out of nowhere when the heat is on me. Its a bizarre vote from you, and can be justified without needing the wolves to be super leveling and wanting two wolves dead.

Avoiding rilla? Again... you're not telling the whole story, JKDS.

@Rilla:
What are your thoughts on Hoopy?

What are your thoughts on the fact that Keith was the one nommed?

His lack of response was part of what I considered wolfy.

OK, so which is it? Was I instrumental in rilla's lynch, or was I FPS'ing, then forgot how to rescind?

[JKDS]

You posted that quote after rilla was already being discussed and after rilla was already receiving votes. Prior to that, yes, you were avoiding him. You lynched ong, for instance. Thats avoidance.

You were neither instrumental in rilla's lynch nor fps-ing and forgeting to rescind. Your last post day 2 was when I was at 4 votes and Rilla was at 1. Then boom, rilla got lynched. Theres no fps here. You avoided my wagon, b/c im a villager, and put yourself safely on rilla so you can show you voted a wolf later.

-------

Im thinking meanwhile, that im placing too much weight on dhuber's defense of baudib when he could have been modkilled. If i ignore that, he looks wolfy too.

[MadMojoMonkey]

So I didn't really want rilla lynched, but I called him out, and voted for him, but it wasn't FPS'ing.
AND I didn't want him to get lynched but I didn't rescind my vote or forget how to rescind.

Do I have you right?

***
I avoided your wagon because, as I've stated many times ITT... I have a lot of respect for your game.

This time it's a wolf game. Your rapid latching onto anything that is not yourself as a target is part of it.

Your arguments are weak and not refined until challenged, when you backpedal and reformulate your statements.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Daven is obv a villager now, and Keith was now killed either because he was right or considered a deadthread liability. I doubt it was the latter. Ong's a wolf. His 'mood swing' posts make perfect sense given Baudib and Rilla were wolves. Rilla's upset posts make sense if ong is a wolf as well. Also, my general feel that ong is wolfin. (His vote on rilla was after Rilla took the lead btw, it doesnt say anything about him).

Luco, Hoopy, and BID are all almost certainly villagers as well. They coulda let me hang, but killed rilla instead. They collectively shifted the wagon away from me towards a wolf. Obv villagers.

Gabe was now encouraging or lynching both Rilla and Baudib. Hes a villager too.

This game is locked.

somehow gabe got villager status for "encouraging or lynching both rilla and baudib". Why does MMM get wolf status?

[Keybored]

I'm not trying to pull a Luco here...but MMM & JKDS should sleep on it. Y'all seem charged up and things could easily spin outta control. We need level minded thinking to keep from mislynching again. Let's hear from BID and Dhuber, shall we? These two opposed thinkers could help us see things from another angle. Now look. Don't go gettin' pissed off at me. I know it's not smart to break up a dog fight. But I tried simmering down the Ong-JK thing yesterday and I think that battle detracted from the overall focus and cost us Gabe. I ain't saying who's right or wrong. Just sayin' we can afford to take a timeout and breathe a little. Hell, I'm still trying to catch my breath from all this...

[dhubermex]

Let's hear from BID and Dhuber, shall we?

Yeah I think this is fair. And it's going to be -EV for the Village if I don't go back through the posts and come up with some more analysis now that my Luco read turned out to be incorrect. Give me some time to do this, and I will post updated thoughts since I don't want a mislynch either and percentage-wise it's highly unlikely my two remaining reads of Ong/Keybored wolf are both correct.

There's quite a bit of info available now with known alignments so as Luco would say, I will go back and "read the fucking thread" with that in mind.

Rescind OngBonga

[Keybored]

Crap...Now I'm agreeing with Dhuber.

Reset

Rescind MMM

[MadMojoMonkey]

#628 in 2 parts
First in response to ong's voting on rilla:

The fact remains that you didnt do so until about an hour before deadline when Rilla was already majority vote. I dont believe that you would have been the nail in the coffin had BID not done so.

Favor for BID, disfavor for ong.

Then in response to Luco's "and it's still way more than you did" post

If you say so. Look, if you want to argue I defended Baudib, go for it. I did. But I brought up evidence against rilla based on Baudib's "1 of daven/rilla is a wolf" posts. No, it wasnt much. And no, i didnt push it. And no, rilla wasnt even my second choice. But NONE of that is relevant to the question of "is Ong wolfing". You want to give ong cred for what he did against rilla, but it doesnt seem like much at all.

Funny how it sounds like what's not wolfy for JKDS is wolfy for MMM. Except that I did push rilla by reiterating my point and not moving my vote.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Gabe inspired theory - the last wolves are jkds and hoopy

hoopys timing mistake d1 can be genuine regardless of alignment, we dont actually know where he would have settled. And d2 if wolf jkds was on the ropes rilla would be almost begging the den to use him as a meat shield, so if jkds flips wolf we need to take a good look at hoopy

d3 hoops is mostly coasting

^this

[JKDS]

#628 in 2 parts
First in response to ong's voting on rilla:

Favor for BID, disfavor for ong.

Then in response to Luco's "and it's still way more than you did" post

Funny how it sounds like what's not wolfy for JKDS is wolfy for MMM. Except that I did push rilla by reiterating my point and not moving my vote.

What? I'm not a wolf, of course I dont find the things I do wolfy. These defense posts by you lack logic, and reek of desperation.

Also, you just quoted Luco saying rilla was a meatshield. Didnt you just previously say that it was unlikely the wolves wanted to kill rilla? Which is it? It seems like you just changed your stance so you can discredit my attack.

[JKDS]

lynch madmojowolf

[MadMojoMonkey]

What? I'm not a wolf, of course I dont find the things I do wolfy. These defense posts by you lack logic, and reek of desperation.

You see no nuance or any motivation other than wolf when someone else does exactly what you did.

I notice your lack of specifics, and retreat to an emotional attack.

You're hanging yourself more by not providing a logical story that explains the whole thing.

Also, you just quoted Luco saying rilla was a meatshield. Didnt you just previously say that it was unlikely the wolves wanted to kill rilla? Which is it? It seems like you just changed your stance so you can discredit my attack.

Yes, I said that. I said that I don't think the wolves had a plan to drop 2 wolves in 2 nights in an effort to control the dead thread. That has not changed since I said it.

I was not convinced you were a wolf then. Now I am. That changes the texture of analyzing the rilla vote. When I wasn't convinced you were a wolf, I was assuming you were a villager... which means that the jump from JKDS to rilla was a jump from V to W.

However, I see now that the rilla vote was in fact W vs W. So it's not that the wolves wanted to kill a wolf... it's that they didn't have any choice. The 2 wagons were both wolf wagons.

Which makes sense with my hypothesis that the wolves did not have any overall strategy to control the dead thread. As evidenced by the lack of angel saves.

It is not a contradiction to say the wolves didn't want to kill rilla, but that the wolves did kill rilla. It's that the admission of such a fact paints you in a terrible corner.

[JKDS]

Your JKDS-Rilla conspiracy lacks thought and teeth. Rilla never voted me. I never voted rilla. I would have died had hoopy/luco/bid not voted rilla. Where is the giant wolf conspiracy to kill rilla, and why?

How does such a play shield me in the future?

If you're suggesting one of hoopy/BID is a wolf and at the last minute killed rilla as a conspiracy, how did they know that Luco and the other hoopy/bid would vote rilla?

If you're suggesting one of hoopy/bid is a wolf, that they killed rilla because rilla asked to be a 'meat shield' and was dying anyway, wouldnt they do the same to me?

You have to make so many jumps for this theory. It doesnt make any sense, and thats why you have been previously advocating against it. However, now that I'm attacking you, you've decided to support it instead.

Instead of a giant illogical conspiracy, it makes more sense that rilla got owned by villagers. Yeah, you voted rilla. I pointed that out. But you did so only after he got serious heat from other players. You did so only after a wagon formed. Of course a wolf could, and would, do this. There doesnt need to be any grand scheme behind it, just a simple reactionary and level 1 idea that when a wolf is gonna die, other wolves vote him too.

[BankItDrew]

Yeah I think this is fair. And it's going to be -EV for the Village if I don't go back through the posts and come up with some more analysis now that my Luco read turned out to be incorrect. Give me some time to do this, and I will post updated thoughts since I don't want a mislynch either and percentage-wise it's highly unlikely my two remaining reads of Ong/Keybored wolf are both correct.

There's quite a bit of info available now with known alignments so as Luco would say, I will go back and "read the fucking thread" with that in mind.

Rescind OngBonga

There's a lot of words here but absolutely no information.

MMM & JKDS should sleep on it. Y'all seem charged up and things could easily spin outta control. We need level minded thinking to keep from mislynching again. Let's hear from BID ... shall we?

This is bad strategy from keybored, again. The more players talk - the better for the village.

As far as the mmm/jkds fiasco:
I think it's entirely possible that this is V/V squabble. I haven't changed my read on either player at this point yet.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Your JKDS-Rilla conspiracy lacks thought and teeth. Rilla never voted me. I never voted rilla. I would have died had hoopy/luco/bid not voted rilla. Where is the giant wolf conspiracy to kill rilla, and why?

How does such a play shield me in the future?

If you're suggesting one of hoopy/BID is a wolf and at the last minute killed rilla as a conspiracy, how did they know that Luco and the other hoopy/bid would vote rilla?

If you're suggesting one of hoopy/bid is a wolf, that they killed rilla because rilla asked to be a 'meat shield' and was dying anyway, wouldnt they do the same to me?

You and rilla weren't alive together long enough to cast votes toward each other. It's a moot point, because I have no idea what you and rilla's votes would be as wolves or as villagers.

It's not a giant conspiracy to kill rilla, which you seem to keep insisting. Take note, village, that this is NOT what I'm saying.

I'm saying it was not a plan at the start of day 2, but as the day developed, it had JKDS vs ong, with rilla on the side. JKDS was in the lead, while ong was on the back burner. I vote rilla. Then you show up to defend yourself in earnest. Clearly your intent is to drive the vote back on to ong.

Now, I admit that this part is not perfectly clear:
hoopy's bold (2:41), then Luco's bold (2:57), then BID (3:13), then ong (3:58)
It could have been the wolf plan to break the vote from you and hope for a further split that would allow them to jump back on ong. If it's hoopy, he could have well intended to back off, but then the wagon built so fast that it wouldn't have mattered if he did. If it's BID, then he jumped on at the last minute as a grab for cred and to save you over rilla.

You have to make so many jumps for this theory. It doesnt make any sense, and thats why you have been previously advocating against it. However, now that I'm attacking you, you've decided to support it instead.

Wait. You're attacking me? Is that how you think this is going down? You're counterstrike relies on appeals to pathos, and you pretend you're on the attack? That's cute.

The only problem with my theory is that I was assuming you were a villager until I had reason to think otherwise. The way you nailed Gator to the wall in World War Werewolf was amazing. I wrongly had you pegged for wolf in that game. So I was trying to not make the same mistake twice.

Instead of a giant illogical conspiracy, it makes more sense that rilla got owned by villagers. Yeah, you voted rilla. I pointed that out. But you did so only after he got serious heat from other players. You did so only after a wagon formed. Of course a wolf could, and would, do this. There doesnt need to be any grand scheme behind it, just a simple reactionary and level 1 idea that when a wolf is gonna die, other wolves vote him too.

Ong and Luco were on, then off rilla earlier that day. I suppose that's what you mean by serious heat and a wagon. When I put my vote on rilla, I was the only one.

Wait.

Pay attention, village. Remember how JKDS said my arguments were not thought-through.


JKDS is saying that I am a wolf and that he's a villager.
He's saying that I put my vote on rilla and left my vote on rilla for 20 hours,
during which time I pressed my point and did not rescind my vote,
during which time JKDS wagon was 1 away from lynch w/o me on it.
JKDS is saying that I not only re-started a broken wagon on my wolf buddy, whom I did not intend to kill,
He's also saying that I did all of that, then didn't lynch him instead of my wolf buddy.
BUT
That it was not my plan to kill my wolf buddy.

Is that what you're saying?

[MadMojoMonkey]

As far as the mmm/jkds fiasco:
I think it's entirely possible that this is V/V squabble. I haven't changed my read on either player at this point yet.

So based on your prior experience with JKDS, and ong and myself.
You find it likely that all 3 of us villagers who are batshit crazy?
You think keybored, who has done more thread digging and point proving and personal reassessing than anyone is a wolf.

I mean. I admire the bravado. I disagree, but damn, that conviction is sexy, BID.

[BankItDrew]

So based on your prior experience with JKDS, and ong and myself.
You find it likely that all 3 of us villagers who are batshit crazy?

No, not really. I'm starting to think there's one wolf amongst the regs and one amongst the n00bs.

[BankItDrew]

There's quite a bit of info available now with known alignments so as Luco would say, I will go back and "read the fucking thread" with that in mind.

Rescind OngBonga

15 minutes later:

Crap...Now I'm agreeing with Dhuber.
Rescind MMM

I'm now convinced keybored and huber are not both wolves.

I'd like to string one up today

[JKDS]

You and rilla weren't alive together long enough to cast votes toward each other. It's a moot point, because I have no idea what you and rilla's votes would be as wolves or as villagers.

It's not a giant conspiracy to kill rilla, which you seem to keep insisting. Take note, village, that this is NOT what I'm saying.

I'm saying it was not a plan at the start of day 2, but as the day developed, it had JKDS vs ong, with rilla on the side. JKDS was in the lead, while ong was on the back burner. I vote rilla. Then you show up to defend yourself in earnest. Clearly your intent is to drive the vote back on to ong.

But...not onto rilla...so the plan wasnt for a wolf-jkds to conspire to kill a wolf-rilla...This is not what you've said before.

Now, I admit that this part is not perfectly clear:
hoopy's bold (2:41), then Luco's bold (2:57), then BID (3:13), then ong (3:58)
It could have been the wolf plan to break the vote from you and hope for a further split that would allow them to jump back on ong. If it's hoopy, he could have well intended to back off, but then the wagon built so fast that it wouldn't have mattered if he did. If it's BID, then he jumped on at the last minute as a grab for cred and to save you over rilla.

Who's plan? If im a wolf, only one of hoopy, luco, bid, or ong could be a wolf. The four CANNOT have conspired together. Its not possible. Only one can be a wolf. There were two hours till deadline. Youre saying the wolf plan was to switch in the HOPE that enough votes would follow to switch the lynch? AND to another wolf no less? No. This whole idea is preposterous, and I cannot believe you're continuing to fight for it when you yourself saw the sillyness of it before.

Wait. You're attacking me? Is that how you think this is going down? You're counterstrike relies on appeals to pathos, and you pretend you're on the attack? That's cute.

Yes, I call researching your posts, making arguments against you, and voting you an attack. But disagree, by all means. Im sure ppl care.

Ong and Luco were on, then off rilla earlier that day. I suppose that's what you mean by serious heat and a wagon. When I put my vote on rilla, I was the only one.

Ppl left rilla's wagon to move to mine. Rilla was still under pressure at this time. You admit your vote did nothing though.

Wait.

Pay attention, village. Remember how JKDS said my arguments were not thought-through.


JKDS is saying that I am a wolf and that he's a villager.
He's saying that I put my vote on rilla and left my vote on rilla for 20 hours,
during which time I pressed my point and did not rescind my vote,

Two posts is now pressing, one of which said i was wolfy.

during which time JKDS wagon was 1 away from lynch w/o me on it.
JKDS is saying that I not only re-started a broken wagon on my wolf buddy, whom I did not intend to kill,
He's also saying that I did all of that, then didn't lynch him instead of my wolf buddy.
BUT
That it was not my plan to kill my wolf buddy.

Is that what you're saying?

Im sure it makes tons of sense for a wolf to switch to a villager and be the final vote. Thats never been seen as suspect before.

Its very easy to see rilla telling you to lynch him, and then you following the order.

[JKDS]

BID: Im convinced one of Key and Dhub is a wolf at this point, but i have no idea which. Dhub is voted and pushed by all three of Rilla, Buadib, mmm, and Key iirc is defended in some ways by them. But im not confident dhub wasnt voted as a level (its too consistent that hes been hated on by all 3) or that key wasnt used as a scapegoat.

[Keybored]

Dhuber posted his lynch nom 3 minutes after Luco's death announcement. He didn't scratch his head and wonder why Luco died or what it means to the village. He didn't take time to wonder who would have done that. He didn't try to factor this new info into any of the past events. He didn't offer any new information as to why he's continuing to park on his d1 soulread. He admits he doesn't analyze the thread and that he simply keeps up. And he makes us feel like crap by saying we're all overanalyzing this; like, the game's not that hard guys. He gives off an air of superiority that screams overconfident wolf to me. But here's the thing about this d4...a wolf knows way before anyone else what the kill is going to be. So a wolf wouldn't need to factor in what Luco's death meant, he's already done that. An overconfident, superior wolf pops off, "let's string up the next one" in under 3 minutes.

So, what if he's village? Can anyone give me a case to support keeping this kind of participant around any longer? He himself hasn't done so in the face of death and he won't now. He doesn't hunt. He doesn't assist. He doesn't bother. He just drafts off the crowd and wonders why we're working so hard. This choice is clear...

Lynch Dhubermax

[Keybored]

To Luco,

No worries on the harshness. I think your point is valid and I'm glad you're picking up on it. The truth is that I've been "following along" with the thread rather than meticulously going back and analyzing what has been said and comparing the timing. There are definite disadvantages to this and anyone is more than welcome (even entitled to imo) call out players who are not as thorough. I don't take it personally regardless of how roles shake out, and the reason why I haven't gone over everything with a fine-tooth comb is mainly work-related.

With that said, another reason is that I feel there are certain disadvantages to over-analysis. I discovered this when modding the Gold Rush match and also felt this was a minor hindrance during the most recent anon-match. Again, in my opinion, there were clear-cut wolves "aroooing" in both matches there were overlooked due to over-thinking things by certain villagers. Of course my sample size is extremely small and I could be mistaken... we'll just have to see how this ends.

I have provided reasons why I believe Ong/Keybored/Luco are best wolf candidates at this time. If it ultimately turns out that the fine-tooth comb method outs wolves, then that's great, but this is two-games in a row where I've felt there are obvious indicators in which my role should have been mass-distinguished as a villager, yet there are several suspicious players still placing me in potential wolf category (more players than possible wolves as a matter of fact).

So my own thoughts remain...

Likely Village: me, MMM, BID, JKDS, Hoopy
Likely Wolves: Ong, Keybored, Luco

When a new post comes up accusing someone of being a particular role, I do go back and look at it to see if the argument fits with my line of thinking. Despite that, I remain unconvinced even after Ong's newfound clarity after I rescinded penultimate lynch-vote to make sure he wasn't lynched without the opportunity to make more of a case). However, I think it is fair for villagers working on roles to be aware that Luco's assumptions on my participation (although a bit "harsh") are geniune, and also be aware of how I'm drawing my conclusions.

This is why Dhuber didn't hesitate to snap lynch today.
He made up his mind, waited for night, killed luco, waited for day, lynched ong.

[Keybored]

The battle that transpired between JKDS/Ong isn't V-V.
An solid example of V-V infighting is BID/Luco.
The battle now raging between JKDS/MMM isn't V-V.

I've made my position clear about JKDS and I think each of us still alive has him on our list of poss wolves.
MMM's case against JKDS only bolsters my opinion.

The wolves are JKDS & Dhuber.
I'm done with Dhuber, so I'm parked on him now.
But if the vill prefers a JKDS lynch today, I'm in.

I see nothing wolf in MMM, BID, Ong, or Hoopy atm.

[Hoopy]

Dhuber posted his lynch nom 3 minutes after Luco's death announcement. He didn't scratch his head and wonder why Luco died or what it means to the village. He didn't take time to wonder who would have done that. He didn't try to factor this new info into any of the past events. He didn't offer any new information as to why he's continuing to park on his d1 soulread. He admits he doesn't analyze the thread and that he simply keeps up. And he makes us feel like crap by saying we're all overanalyzing this; like, the game's not that hard guys. He gives off an air of superiority that screams overconfident wolf to me. But here's the thing about this d4...a wolf knows way before anyone else what the kill is going to be. So a wolf wouldn't need to factor in what Luco's death meant, he's already done that. An overconfident, superior wolf pops off, "let's string up the next one" in under 3 minutes.

So, what if he's village? Can anyone give me a case to support keeping this kind of participant around any longer? He himself hasn't done so in the face of death and he won't now. He doesn't hunt. He doesn't assist. He doesn't bother. He just drafts off the crowd and wonders why we're working so hard. This choice is clear...

Lynch Dhubermax

I agree that dhuber needs to get lynched today, confident he's a wolf now. Not going to vote him until everyone have said their bit.

Luco's too good to lynch D1

Wholeheartedly agree with this. Although he's also too good to let hanging around if he rolled Wolf, random chances are he's village and is needed itt. I'm getting a Village vibe from him atm.

Keith is a far superior player than I am (you all are, actually), and the fact that I'm a bit suspicious won't--and shouldn't-- hold any weight. I do like Ong's read though and that is what I'm going on for the most part.

Looks like dhuber decided to follow baduib to have something to say right here. Really it's restating the obvious which can be wolfy.

The Ong jump onto baudib wagon is highly suspicious imo, and is prompting me to change my initial read. I think baudib is a likely Day 1 lynch (besides myself) and this decision could cost my own neck but I think there's something to read in Ong's post (and its timing) to lynch someone who could very likely go early.

Therefore...

Rescind Keith

Lynch Ong

Ong was all over baudib at this point. The looks like a chainsaw defense by dhuber by attacking his fellow wolf's attacker. Also what is he actually saying here? I can't follow it.

Meh Huber's post doesn't really make me feel better about him.

Wolves not getting too close or too far apart on day 1.

I know people say that dhuber is village for being attacked by both baudib and rilla. But really the pressure they put on him wasn't that significant or long lasting iirc.

[Hoopy]

JKDS is the last wolf.

He's stuck at the moment. Getting Ong lynched today would almost certainly mean him dying the next day. Attacking me or drew is difficult because neither of us make sense as wolves unless he is also one. Going after huber too much is bad because he's a fellow wolf. Keybored's style just looks very villager.

That just leaves MMM who he's forced to go after.

[OngBonga]

Aaaand I have flu. I actually just got up at 2pm.

Hoops post above is slightly concerning.

Getting Ong lynched today would almost certainly mean him dying the next day.

This quite strongly assumes I flip villager. I agree with hoopy here, but I know I'm gonna flip villager. If hoopy is a villager, he doesn't know how I'll flip.

I'm still not liking mojo's numbers slip. I need to eat though so I'll read up properly once I've done that.

[Keybored]

JKDS is the last wolf.

He's stuck at the moment. Getting Ong lynched today would almost certainly mean him dying the next day. Attacking me or drew is difficult because neither of us make sense as wolves unless he is also one. Going after huber too much is bad because he's a fellow wolf. Keybored's style just looks very villager.

That just leaves MMM who he's forced to go after.

Hoops...I hadn't thought of it from this perspective. I was banging my head to figure out why he moved to MMM. I see no reason to wait, tho. He's on everyone's baddy list already. MMM's already there. Ong was already. Now I'm in.

Rescind and Lynch JKDS

[OngBonga]

Ok I'm finding it pretty hard to motivate myself into reading an 11-page game, or look individually at mojo and jkds, because it's a lot of hard work. So instead I'm just gonna read a page every hour or so and note my thoughts. By this time tomorrow I should have read through.

#16 JKDS votes for baudib after I tell baudib to shut up. Seems unneccesary for wolf on wolf and as such JKDS starts with a v point.
#26 doobs says he has a suspect but keeps the identity to himself, wolfy

I'm not sure I like ong's argument against baud's bad numbers - merely because baud corrected them himself before anyone else pointed out his mistake.

^ this looks really bad now, given mojo's recent number issue. mojo defends baudib for instantly correcting himself. But ofc all that showed us is that baudib quickly realised that he fucked up and went into damage limitation mode. mojo using this to defend baudib is illogical... it doesn't explain why baudib got those numbers in the first place.

#54 hoopy defends baudib, reminding us he got modkilled last game.
#57 is a huge post from mojo - starts off defending baudib. He then goes on to say that I'm on the same team and baudib, which gives him an easy target after baudib flips. This post is oozing with wolf motivation.
#62 jkds backs off baudib and then spoils my idea of waiting to see who jumps on a keybored wagon without thinking about the implications of putting a noob in the dead thread. He loses that v point he got earlier.
#70 doobs arrives. He immediately says baudib is wolfy and then says he doesn't want to lynch him. Leans villager with me and mojo. doober not looking great here.
#73 baudib picks up on what I just did and slaps a vote on doober for it. doobs looking better here.

Ok that's page 1.

JKDS and doob have marks for and against. mojo looking bad. More later.

[Keybored]

Villagers look out for the town's best interests...

Hoopy last night: "We don't want to be bolding this early today, lets take our time and get it right."

Keyboard last night: "Just sayin' we can afford to take a timeout and breathe a little."

Dhuber on today: "...it's going to be -EV for the Village if I don't go back through the posts and come up with some more analysis now that my
Luco read turned out to be incorrect. Give me some time to do this, and I will post updated thoughts since."

Ong on today: "I'm just gonna read a page every hour or so and note my thoughts. By this time tomorrow I should have read through."

Wolves focus on hunting/killing...

BID: never slowing down
JKDS & MMM: battling it out

This is very surface level, the words aren't so important but intentions run deep.
Could be nothing but it could also be very telling.

[OngBonga]

Onto p2

#86 doobs votes for an inactive keybored despite jkds having recently pointed out that killing an inactive isn't smart. This kind of indicates that doobs isn't even reading everything before making his vote.
#90 gabe votes doober, saying he's being forceful with his words.
#91 baudib asks doober to clarify his vanilla comment. Remember that drew's vanilla comment went ignored by baudib.
#93 baudib gives v reads on mmm, hoopy and keyb. I found the hoopy read thin, and called him out on it.
#95 responds to me by saying it's normal hoopy, while admitting he hasn't seen hoopy wolf.
#97 mojo questions baudib about his reads, asking why jkds isn't a v read of his, also points at a gabe comment and asks how noone else has questioned it.
#99 baudib says jkds isn't wolfy, but simply talking about game mechanics is easy and not worthy of v points.
#109 baudib makes a really iffy post regarding rilla
#111 keybored votes baudib, albeit based on revenge, but if keyb is a wolf with rilla and baudib, he'd see that post is iffy and would be unlikely to draw attention to it by quoting it, let alone put extra pressure on baudib by voting for him. v points here for keyb.
#115 baudib want to hear more from doober. At the time that felt to me like baudib was trying to shift the focus onto him, that's more likely the case now we know baud is a wolf. v points for doobs.
#126 baudib reads post - three villager reads are mmm, jkds and hoopy... bound to be a wolf here... null reads are gabe drew keyb luco rilla daven, and wolf reads are me, doobs and keith. Not sure if baud would put a wolf in his wolf reads or keep it clean so he can attack villagers.
#133 doobs backs off keyb, citing me as opposed jkds. It really feels like doobs is only reading posts when he sees his name.
#134 baudib calls doober's post "fascinating", not wolfy, not villager, which is fence sitting. I'm seeing doobs wolf more and more.
#142 hoopy expresses surprise at baudib's townread on him. This is way after I call baudib out for that town read but it's still worthy of v points for hoopy... more likely imo that a wolf would quietly accept a town read from a buddy.

That's p2 done. doober looking worse.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@WUF:

So if the dead thread makes 2 angel saves, then on the next night there will be a revive, but since that revive uses the 2 remaining ghost angels, there is no block?

Is that right?

Hypothetically:
Let's say that on today and tomorrow, the village lynches 1 wolf and 1 vil. On both nights the ghost angel saves.
So that puts the game on day 6 with 5 living: 4v/1w and the dead thread having saved 2 times.
So if the village lynches a villager on day 6, then what happens that night?

Does the dead thread still get to vote for the ghost angel saves, having already activated the revive with their actions on the previous 2 nights?
Or do the wolves get an unblocked nom, and the dead thread elects a revive?

[OngBonga]

p3

#161 mojo agrees with my reasoning regarding the ong-keith shitfest
#162 mojo jumps on keyb saying we're unlikely to sniff a wolf out d1 and accusing him of appeal to emotion
#163 mojo suspicious of keith
#165 keyb thinks there's a wolf between me, keith and baudib and sticks with baudib. Looks good to me.
#166 doobs backs off baudib and says there's a wolf between me and keith. Swings for keith.
#168 pro-ong comments which justify his keith vote... passing the buck for when keith flips vill.
#169 mojo emphasises that me and baud are same team.
#173 jkds thinks this is standard keith.
#195 drew reads post - baud strong village lean, ends up voting me.
#196 drew then echoes pretty much what I'd been shouting at keith.
#199 doobs jumps on me for switching to baudib.
#225 keyb 50-50 between rilla and jkds based on lurking, goes for jkds because rilla is a super hero. I'd assume that if keyb is a wolf he'd have been warned that jkds should be respected. Seems honest.

I'm thinking this is mojo and doobs.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Here's the game tree, as far as I can tell.

The numbers in each box are
(living V) / (living W)
(dead V) / (dead W) (ghost angel saves)

An upward branch is pro-village, a downward branch is pro wolf.
For daytime, up means lynch W, down means lynch V.
For nighttime, up means ghost angel save, down means no ghost angel save.

Red boxes are illogical / can't happen because the number of GA saves is equal to the number of living.
Green boxes are the revives, which IDK what happens there.

It looks like the revive is not as sure-fire as I thought.

[OngBonga]

wtf is that, explain it to me like I'm an 8-y/o child because basically that's what I am.

[MadMojoMonkey]

p3

#161 mojo agrees with my reasoning regarding the ong-keith shitfest
#162 mojo jumps on keyb saying we're unlikely to sniff a wolf out d1 and accusing him of appeal to emotion
#163 mojo suspicious of keith
#165 keyb thinks there's a wolf between me, keith and baudib and sticks with baudib. Looks good to me.
#166 doobs backs off baudib and says there's a wolf between me and keith. Swings for keith.
#168 pro-ong comments which justify his keith vote... passing the buck for when keith flips vill.
#169 mojo emphasises that me and baud are same team.
#173 jkds thinks this is standard keith.
#195 drew reads post - baud strong village lean, ends up voting me.
#196 drew then echoes pretty much what I'd been shouting at keith.
#199 doobs jumps on me for switching to baudib.
#225 keyb 50-50 between rilla and jkds based on lurking, goes for jkds because rilla is a super hero. I'd assume that if keyb is a wolf he'd have been warned that jkds should be respected. Seems honest.

I'm thinking this is mojo and doobs.

I'm waiting until you actually call me out on something to respond.
I found the right side on you, so I'm confident you can find the right side on me.

How are you clearing JKDS all of the sudden?

[MadMojoMonkey]

wtf is that, explain it to me like I'm an 8-y/o child because basically that's what I am.

We're currently on the left with:
5/2 -> 5 living villagers, 2 living wolves
(4/2) 4 -> 4 dead villagers, 2 dead wolves, and 4 ghost angel saves.

If we nail a wolf, then we take the top fork going into night. So over night we'd have
5/1 -> 5 living villagers and 1 living wolf
(4/3) 4 -> 4 dead villagers, 3 dead wolves, and 4 ghost angel saves.


If we mislynch, then we take the bottom fork going into night, So over night we'd have
4/2 -> 4 living villagers, 2 living wolves
(5/2) 4 -> 5 dead villagers, 2 dead wolves, and 4 ghost angel saves.


***
From whichever box we land in, there is a fork for whether or not an angel save happens... up is yes, down is no.

[OngBonga]

How are you clearing JKDS all of the sudden?

I'm not clearing him. It's just based on first 3 pages you and doobs look worse.

[Keybored]

Does anyone else find this interesting:
Ong is wolf hunting by focusing on past know events.
MMM is not hunting, instead focusing on unknown outcomes in the future.

The mission of WW Villager is to outlive Wolves.
The goals are to find wolves and not mislynch villagers.

My hunting, here and now, is not affected by what might happen to numbers in a box on a diagram.

MMM is losing Mojo points with me today.

**Mad nerd points, however, for the badass chart.

[BankItDrew]

wtf is that, explain it to me like I'm an 8-y/o child because basically that's what I am.

I don't see wolf MMM putting in this much effort in an attempt to help the village understand future possibilities.

Although Keybored does make a good point... FML

MMM could have done it as a combination of wanting village cred plus personal curiosity.

[OngBonga]

p4

#229 mojo sees stuff between me and baudib that he doesn't like, swings for the wolf. Better from mojo.
#238 drew suggests baud is framing his teammate doobs.
#240 jkds begins swinging for me based on me not leading the charge on him for being afk and for attacking "easy target" baudib.
#241 baudib hi5's jkds for turning on me.
Approaching d1 lynch and it's me and baudib tied, hoopy and keyb are online but do not save baudib. +v points for them both.
#288 doob admits he sucks and promises to go through baud's posts.
#291 jkds admits he sucks.
#293 daven waves his finger at doobs.

p5

#334 drew swings for keyb, says he's willing to move onto me.
#335 doobs is all for me, despite the fact that d1 he was suspicious of my switch to him. He's done nothing with the flip, he hasn't read baud's posts like he promised, he's basically voting blind.
#337 luco - "the wolves are in gabe, huber, jkds, rilla "
#349 gabe doesn't like keyb's comments about not posting during the night.
#350 keyb retaliates by voting gabe.
#351 mojo comes swinging for me based on his idea that me and baud are same team.
#356 rilla votes doober.
#367 mojo backs off me because I suggest he's trying to be consistent, acknowledging I am right.
#369 keyb swings for hoopy.

That's p5 done.

Basically I'm still looking at doobs and mojo, but I know what's coming. JKDS accused me of going for an "easy target" in baudib, but when baudib flips wolf jkds doesn't stop to reassess, he still has me as a wolf and comes attacking with everything he's got. idk I'll see how I feel about all thathen I get there. For now it's still mojo and doobs looking worst imo.

[OngBonga]

I don't see wolf MMM putting in this much effort in an attempt to help the village understand future possibilities.

Although Keybored does make a good point... FML

MMM could have done it as a combination of wanting village cred plus personal curiosity.

I saw that chart and thought does a wolf ever do that... but wolves also like to know what their path is. He could've done that for the benefit of the wolves and realised that posting it is gonna look good.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Does anyone else find this interesting:
Ong is wolf hunting by focusing on past know events.
MMM is not hunting, instead focusing on unknown outcomes in the future.

The mission of WW Villager is to outlive Wolves.
The goals are to find wolves and not mislynch villagers.

My hunting, here and now, is not affected by what might happen to numbers in a box on a diagram.

MMM is losing Mojo points with me today.

**Mad nerd points, however, for the badass chart.

A) I am directly calling out JKDS, and I have him bolded.
B) You wanted me to lay off so you could make up your mind.
C) I did lay off, but am still thinking about the game, so I've posted that, instead.
D) You take away my Mojo for doing what you asked.


I'm 99% pos. it's JKDS. My arguments are: JKDS's timing of not posting in earnest until he was about to get lynched is wolfy. Most of JKDS arguments are very thin, not compelling, and ill-formed.

Notice that JKDS can't explain the day2 vote with me as wolf and him as vil. His claim about how I voted on rilla, assuming I'm W and he's V is beyond me. Then he has the gall to say my arguments don't make sense, when my argument is that JKDS is capable of being much more clear, compelling and concise. His logical leaps and wild stabs are NOT him helping the village. His reactive timing is suspect; his reactive counterattacks are suspect; his appeals to emotion are suspect.
Why did JKDS's 2 strongest cases against someone (ong/me) come AFTER that person was accusing JKDS? This is reactive, not proactive JKDS, and another sign that he's wolfing.

You and ong are 99% cleared to me.

Dhuber, BID, Hoopy look the wolfiest, in that order, but none of them is a clear wolf. You want my case, then I'll give you my case against each of them.

P.S. Your Days of Thunder reference was downright epic, and won you plenty of personal points from me.

[dhubermex]

The first two pages are prominently baudib/ong/keith. I originally suspected Ong for his back-and-forth with Keith, but it comes off better now that I've gone through and looked at it again. There's a point on Page 1 (#14) where Ong smacks baudib after a series of posts... it seems genuine in retrospect. I still don't like Ong's conclusion at #155, a blatant "Keith is a wolf" statement like that worries me still. #158 is equally as troubling.

Keybored is "pressuring" baudib on Page 3, and that now seems genuine to me. JKDS was a "late comer," which I don't believe he would have been had he been a wolf. He also points out Keith Village tendencies in #173. There is one late-comer confirmed wolf, which is rilla. Keybored at #175 doesn't like the "no mod-kills" for inactives clause on Day 1... this could be a way to try to get rid of Villagers, who are less likely to come into the fold early on a percentage basis. Ong comes in on baudib wagon after daven posts. BID disagrees with daven's analysis on baudib at that time (so did I, I had reversed myself by this point). There's still more griping between Keith & Ong on Page 3... here Ong looks more suspicious imo.

Rilla opens Page 4 with a jab at Keybored, then votes for fellow wolf baudib... leading to a control of the Dead Thread as Keith had put it, but then he immediately reverses himself and goes to Keith lynch. I think Rilla's jab at Keybored is genuine, making Keybored more likely Villager here. BID in #232 wonders out loud about whether not mod-killing baudib may be because he's a wolf. It's a strong Village lean. Ong corrects him, but this is typical Ong and he consistently posts against trying to out-guess a WW mod. JKDS comes in and states Ong isn't being his typical Villager self, but then baudib comes right back and agrees. Ong checking Keith's online status at #280 and again outright stating he's a wolf is suspect.

Keith again makes a good point at #310 about possible Ong/baudib wolf team. Ong post #322 points out Rilla's inactivity and opines he's a lock wolf. This is a Village lean for Ong. Ong starts rilla wagon at #338. Luco thinks JKDS is a good wolf candidate as well as me, Gabe, & Rilla. Ong agrees. Keybored wants to look into daven/Hoopy connection at #366. MMM goes off Ong wagon at #367 and admits to trying to be consistent. Keybored wants to lynch Hoopy at #369. Ong continues to beat Rilla drum at #372... further making him Village lean.

Page 6+ to be continued...

[JKDS]

MMM, no one cares what your opinion of my argument is. Say theyre emotive all you want. Say they lack logic all you want. But all anyone has to do is look at your posts, and look at when you made them, to come to the same conclusion I have. Sorry you dont like being caught.

You voted rilla when it was safe. You left it on b/c moving it would be suspect. You werent around when the wagon suddenly switched to rilla. You didnt vote me, because the last vote on a villager wagon is suspect.

Oh

You have been watching the vote counts like a hawk the whole game, you're keenly aware of what it will take for a wolf win, and now that heat is on you, you start posting charts and try demonstrating value. You're being far too obvious at this point, and all anyone has to do is look at the tone of your posts and see how they change from before Ong suggested you're a wolf and I attacked, and afterwards.