Getting looked up isn't a problem for the team as a whole. The issue is the statistical significance of seer confirmed villagers. I still contend that the seer shouldn't be looking for wolves, but for hard to read villagers that aren't going to die
Originally Posted by Keith_MM
Finding wolves/specials is a crapshoot for most of us. I could argue it might not be for Keith though, because I think you're particularly good at finding them. Most of the time, however, when people think they've found a wolf for a specific reason (or special for that matter), they haven't, they're just a product of variation.
For me, the only wolf I've ever truly found was TLR in the first game I played, and that was because I saw him playing in a particular way that told me he was a wolf, however he could easily have done the same thing as a villager, I honestly don't know. But every other wolf I've found wasn't due to figuring them out, but really just statistics and luck. In my seer game, I had no read on Carroters, thought Ragnar was a villager, thought DC was simply a better lynch than several other options, and I was rolling your line against Roid because I do actually think you're a good detective.
I laugh when people say I was an obvious wolf this game. It couldn't be that I was obviously sleep impaired, was busy focusing on other stuff, said I wasn't in the mood to play before the game anyways, and people were confused about what my style really is. Granted, there is one possibility that if I wasn't a wolf I would have posted more in the game thread instead of in the wolves den, but I think that's very slim, and I have not posted too much for segments of games before.
Did the people who thought I was a wolf have some epic read or just lucky? You know my position. I won't rule out that some people can get soulreads some of the time, but being frank about it, soulread success rate is terribly low. Maybe some people are real good at finding special roles, but for most of us it's a crapshoot. I mean the wolves were incredibly close to steamrolling this game since the angel and seer were our first two targets, but one thing changed, then a cascade came against us. I hope the next time I'm a wolf it's with you, because I bet you're expert at it, but with the team we had, it seemed everybody was a special
I'm particularly terrible at finding wolves/specials. I think I'm good at a statistically beneficial WW philosophy, and I know I'm good at convincing people of stuff regardless of its truth. That's really the extent of my expertise in WW.