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Weird spot AQs

  
 
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sk8r_daniel
Old 11-22-2009, 07:45 PM     Post subject: Weird spot AQs #1 (permalink)  
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UTG is a winning regular mtt player, he has recently bet JTo MP, J7s MP, and one other weak hand. He also cbets nearly everytime. He is capable of folding a big hand.
UTG+2 has been adjusting by calling light and floating/attempting to steal on turn and river.

The first problem is preflop whether or not to shove. I definitely would with more reads he opens light UTG or if he was betting anywhere except the first few spots.

2nd problem is what to do on the flop. I could flat and try to peal a 9 or K. Or Fold to preserve my stack. Or shove because I am representing massive strength and still have equity if he decides to call with an overpair. I'm just not sure how much FE I have here.

Let me know what you think.

$100+9 67players. 27 left.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
10 Players

Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$4,500 GP Freezeout Buy-In: $100+$9
Hero is MP2 dealt AdQd

Stacks:
UTG (13,011)
UTG+1 (6,405)
UTG+2 (4,903)
MP1 (9,165)
MP2 (3,590)
MP3 (1,273)
CO (2,510)
BTN (7,738)
SB (1,266)
BB (8,018)

Blinds: 80/160

Pre-Flop: (240, 10 players)
UTG raises to 480, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls 480, 1 fold, MP2 calls 480, 5 folds

Flop: (1,680, 3 players)
UTG bets 840, UTG+2 calls 840, Hero?
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Sprayed
Old 11-22-2009, 08:49 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Meh, this is a fold or shove preflop. I don't like calling off over 10% of my stack. As played, its a fold on that flop. UTG is betting into two players on a pretty drawy flop.
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fjuanl
Old 11-22-2009, 11:18 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Really nice opportunity to squeeze preflop given your reads. I'd shove or fold pre with my whole range.

Flop may be a fold because I would expect to only have gutter outs if you shove. And some of those outs might be dirty (theres a flush draw possibility). Not sure though since your getting such a good price
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baudib
Old 11-23-2009, 11:44 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Fold pre, we're well behind any decent player's UTG range and he's not folding much of it.

Optimistically we have 14 outs to make a hand, that's pretty unlikely though as our outs are in opponents' hands or dirty or no good (assuming they have TT+, AJ+, Asxs, KJ/KQ).

Realistically we have somewhere around 6-9 outs, I don't think we have any FE but I'd still shove over as the pot's too big to give up on.
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revolvingiris
Old 11-23-2009, 09:09 PM #5 (permalink)  
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With that read I would shove over pf. Also given your read I think you have to lay this down. This type of flop seems to hit both of their ranges pretty hard. I mean you could have more outs but it basically looks like you would be praying for a 9.
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