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An Unbelievable Comeback and a Blunder
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kardmania
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11-25-2009, 11:27 PM
Post subject: An Unbelievable Comeback and a Blunder
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 62
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137 runners for $500 entry tournament at Horseshoe. $21k for first place. 18 spots paid. No real money til top 5 or so.
Get verrrry short with about 60 left. M down to about 3, Shoving with 75 suited, 22 etc. -- all the premium stuff. Finally shove with KJ suited in cutoff, BB wakes up with AA. I barely have him covered. I lose, my chip count down to...drumroll...900 chips. We are playing blinds of 600-1200. I cannot even cover the Big Blind. With a starting stack of 15,000 per player, there are 2,055,000 chips in play and I have 900... That would be .044% of the chips in play...1/25th of 1 percent. About the same chance as Mark Mangino saying "screw the porterhouse, just give me the salad."
900 chips. (700 after ante) one limper, I move my chips with 33 (any two, wouldn't have mattered) I make Quad 3's. 700 x 4 = 2800 plus antes = 4600
M is still 1.3. Shove very next hand with Q4 suited. All muck to BB who is pretty much priced in with T9. My hand holds up. 4400 x 2 = 8800 plus antes and SB = 11200
M is now approaching playability. (3.1) pass a couple of hands til I am in SB. Button opens for a raise to 3000. I shove with KQ knowing that the guy doesn't have to have a hand there, he kinda does...calls me with A7 offsuit. I am 43-57 dog, thats OK. Flop is QT3. Good, Turn Ace, not so good, River Jack: board QT3AJ. Rather dramatic...a "one card" straight with the King...I win. Takes me to about 23,000.
That's how you get back into a tournament. NEVER GIVE UP AND BE WILLING TO GAMBLE.
Got my stack up to 60,000 with about 35 left. Button shoves for 20,000 I have AA (first and only time all day -- never KK either) in SB he has Th9h. Flop not so good. ALL HEARTS. I go from 77-23 favorite to 3-97 dog. no miracles. Lose 1/3 my stack with AA...overrated piece of crap hand.
The blunder: I have built back to 60,000. (M = 7.4) Blinds 1500-3000. Under the Gun old guy (has me covered by a little) opens for 9100. I have JJ in mid-position. What to do, what to do. Fold is too weak. I could raise standard (25,000 or so) or just shove. Given his bet sizing I think AA not really likely, but with old dudes you can never dismiss it. AK seems most likely or perhaps some midpair that doesn't want to get called. I elect to smooth call and reassess after the flop. Planning to just fold if Ace or King comes and he leads.
Flop is QQT and he checks. A little suspicious, but not inconsistent with the profile of some old dude with AK. I check. Turn is an 8, now giving me a gut-shot straight draw in addition to the Jack outs. He now leads for 10,000 which strikes me as a scared bet. Without really thinking it thru, I move all-in representing a Queen. He snap calls me with AQ, I dont hit my 6-outer on the River and I am out just short of the money.
Hand Analysis: As it turns out, I think if I raise or shove pre-flop, he mucks AQ and I win. At least, he should. When two Q's hit the flop, I tend to discount him having a Queen, if it had been just one Q, I would have played it much softer. Prob call one bet then fold. If I really put him on a middle pair, the Ten OR the Eight could have filled him up. At this point the only hands in his range that I can beat are AK and 99. If he DOES happen to have KK or AA I think he makes crying call and beats me anyway. My shove is simply awful here. I can just call to slow him down. After all, now I am representing a Queen or a boat. Or, I can min-raise to 20,000 and fold if he three-bets, secure in the knowledge that JJ can't get the cheese.
Lesson Learned: Sometimes, not always, but sometimes, you can find out what you need to know with a regular old raise instead of a shove. I could have blown 21,900 on the hand, but I could still be sitting there. After all, I only need 900 to be dangerous.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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JJ beats pretty much everything a Q does, so I dont get why you 'represent' a Q when you're ahead of everything he folds. Seems to me any kind of raise is bad.
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Just playing to improve.
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dthorne04
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: hi
Posts: 478
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you have some really funky, flawed thought processes.
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