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re-steal MATH EV, please check

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CorbinDallas

03-11-2010, 05:29 PM Post subject: re-steal MATH EV, please check

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Sep 2007

Posts: 509

this is a rather simplified example of a common re-steal situation. i'm more interested if i did the math correctly rather than if villains assumed action is accurate. once i get the math confirmed, we can debate villains steal % and calling % based on his image and stack size. then we can replug the numbers based on different villains, hands, etc.

blinds 1000/2000 antes 200 4800 in the pot.

CO Villain raises 2.5x and has 46k. you have T8s on the BB with 36k. CO Villain has PFR of 15%. you shove.

in this example... villain is calling with top 5%.
let's assume he's gonna steal with hands outside his normal range sometimes so instead of getting called 1/3 times, let's say we get called 1/4 times. (this may be way off but let me go with it for this example and we can debate this after as it shouldn't change the basic equation.)

blinds/antes= 4800
villains raise= 5000
POT= 9800
we shove 34000
3 out of 4 times villain folds we win 9800x3=29400 (should this number be the amount of chips added to our stack OR the total amount of chips we win INCLUDING our shoved stack.... 43800 ????)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.677% 69.41% 00.27% 309003020 1196884.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 30.323% 30.05% 00.27% 133802252 1196884.00 { T8s }

when we get called:

blinds/antes= 4800
villains raise= 5000
our shove= 34000
villains call= 29000
total= 72800

we lose 70%= -50960
we win 30%= +21840

villain folds we win= 29400 chips
villain calls we win= 21840 chips
TOTAL won= 51240 chips
villain calls= -50960 chips

TOTAL= +280 chips. (obviously, this number is much higher if i should use the above red method. can someone confirm or correct me here?)

couldn't something like this be made into a resteal EV chart... plug in the blinds, villains numbers (reads, estimated calling %) chips stacks and presto?

Quote:

guys he's just looking to complain about taking coolers/beats

he'll continue to be the type of poker player we all love, the one that isn't any good but thinks he is, and slowly donates to the regulars.

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drmcboy

03-11-2010, 05:41 PM

#2 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,603

no, it should not include your shoved stack.

yep, you could make a re steal chart.

fjuanl

03-11-2010, 08:31 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 2,446

I've tried making a chart and memorizing it but theres too many variables to look at and the profitability of a resteal changes a LOT with just a small change in your assumptions.

Your stack size: Having 15BBs vs 22BBs matters

Villain Raise size: Is it a full 3x open? Minraise? 2.5x?

Villain Opening range: Small sample sizes on your HUD may be way off from his real opening range

Villain Call resteal range: It seems harder to get this part wrong, but theres still room for error

Edge: Should you take every resteal as long as you net 1 chip? 1 SB? 1 BB? This skews things a ton and I'm not sure what kind of an edge is appropriate

CorbinDallas

03-11-2010, 08:36 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Sep 2007

Posts: 509

Quote:

Originally Posted by fjuanl

I've tried making a chart and memorizing it but theres too many variables to look and the profitability of a resteal changes a LOT with just a few changes.

Your stack size: Having 15BBs vs 22BBs matters

Villain Raise size: Is it a full 3x open? Minraise? 2.5x?

Villain Opening range: Small sample sizes on your HUD may be way off from his real opening range

Villain Call resteal range: It seems harder to get this part wrong, but theres still room for error

Edge: Should you take every resteal as long as you net 1 chip? 1 SB? 1 BB? This skews things a ton and I'm not sure what kind of an edge is appropriate

agreed. lots of variables. but maybe this is a good exercise anyway.

about the HUD... has anyone used pokeredge for tournaments? they have a large database to pull from which could give you more hands on opponents than the 30 or 50 u might have on potential villains.

drmcboy

03-11-2010, 09:04 PM

#5 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,603

yeah I'm same as juan, I think it's good to try it a couple times but I never came up with a sheet I would call usable, just had a better idea of when to re steal ship. Also I found the biggest difference maker was usually the % fold which depends a lot more on history than the numbers in my experience.

Penneywize

03-11-2010, 09:07 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 886

Penneywize will become famous soon enough

Quote:

Originally Posted by CorbinDallas

def useful but illegal as far as most sites are concerned. i gave it up in favour of PT3

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