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vqc
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11-01-2005, 04:53 AM
Post subject: PP 10+1. KQ 4 handed.
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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#Game No : 2961971329
***** Hand History for Game 2961971329 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:17038630 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Monday, October 31, 22:51:58 EDT 2005
Table Table 71541 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: IModFTR ( $1445 )
Seat 6: VinnyV76 ( $1645 )
Seat 8: dying8towin ( $1235 )
Seat 9: rickcouns1 ( $3675 )
Trny:17038630 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IModFTR [ Kh Qc ]
IModFTR is all-In [1445]
Do you push?
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Darby
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 209
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it depends for me on the table. your putting alot of pressure on Ax hands and low pocket pairs and if i think theyll gamble with me i probably wont since i know im 99% of the time behind when called. a tight table though ill push and expect to pick up the blinds easily. i think i make this play more often then i dont, but it does depend for me.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
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yea i push that.
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vqc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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you should run the numbers on this one gabe.
I thought it was an obvious push...
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
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I push
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Easy push.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
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if their calling ranges are 66+, ATs+, AJo+, then the push is neutral EV.
seeing as how most $11s on party are probably looser than this, it is most likely a -EV push.
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vqc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
if their calling ranges are 66+, ATs+, AJo+, then the push is neutral EV.
seeing as how most $11s on party are probably looser than this, it is most likely a -EV push.
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when i foudn this out, i went crazy.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
if their calling ranges are 66+, ATs+, AJo+, then the push is neutral EV.
seeing as how most $11s on party are probably looser than this, it is most likely a -EV push.
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I would think this is only a problem if you are more likely to get more than one caller in those games. I dont play the 11s on party so I dont know what its like but if you only get one caller in most cases then widening his hand range (you would have to add in hands that are weaker than KQ to do this) wont lower your EV.
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.2194 % [ 00.32 00.05 ] { KhQc }
Hand 2: 63.7806 % [ 00.59 00.05 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.7714 % [ 00.46 00.03 ] { KhQc }
Hand 2: 51.2286 % [ 00.48 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
So you get a caller more often but in turn your hand holds up more often.
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drawman
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Trapping the Maniacs
Posts: 115
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This is a topic I really dont understand probably due to my inexperience.
Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you?
What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?
Especially at this level, you'll get all kinds of people calling with Ax, any pocket pair. I dont see the point in taking the risk.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
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if you are going to include JTo, you gotta include alot more aces than just ATo, but thats beside the point
if you are more likely to get called, and you are behind most of the time, it is still -ev.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drawman
This is a topic I really dont understand probably due to my inexperience.
Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you?
What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?
Especially at this level, you'll get all kinds of people calling with Ax, any pocket pair. I dont see the point in taking the risk.
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The blinds dictate the hands you should play, when the blinds start becoming significant compared to your stack you can't afford to camp for a monster since you will either blind out or be so shortstacked by the time you get it that you will still be shortstacked even if you double up.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you? because you need to pick up the blinds. you only have 7 of them in your stack and the structure of the tournament means they are going to be up going up again soon.
What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?
with only 4 people left, people are playing scared. they all want to make the money. this is the best time to pick up lots of pots (because people are scared) so that you have a nice sized stack when you get ITM, and then you can fight for first place.
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drawman
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Trapping the Maniacs
Posts: 115
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Yes, I didnt notice at first there were only 4 people left.
Aggression is definitely a part of my game I need to work at.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
if you are going to include JTo, you gotta include alot more aces than just ATo, but thats beside the point
if you are more likely to get called, and you are behind most of the time, it is still -ev.
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Hand 1: 47.5433 % [ 00.45 00.03 ] { KhQc }
Hand 2: 52.4567 % [ 00.50 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-A7s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Adding in more aces actually help because the ratio of the number of hands in his range that dominate your hand (AA-QQ, AK, AQ) to the number of hands that you either dominate or are close to a coinflip with becomes smaller and therefore your hand will hold up more often (about 45% of the time instead of 32%). If you get called 100% of the time you are still +EV since the dead money in the pot (unless its the big blind who called) will give you good enough pot odds. It might be less EV than at a tighter table but I don't think its -EV.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
Adding in more aces actually help because the ratio of the number of hands in his range that dominate your hand (AA-QQ, AK, AQ) to the number of hands that you either dominate or are close to a coinflip with becomes smaller and therefore your hand will hold up more often (about 45% of the time instead of 32%)
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it is definitely more -EV. adding small pairs and all the aces in the range gives alot more situations where you are behind by a small margin, and if you consistently do this in party sngs you will lose lots of chips. the pot odds might help compensate for this a little, but in general you don't want people calling pushes.
also, although you have a higher win percentage against this range, it is still losing to the range. my guess is that the number of hands you get called by increases enough to overcome the smaller edge your opponent has.
i might not have explained this well, but SNG power tools say pushing here loses more against a wider range. i know thats a lame way of trying to justify my argument, but it's usually what i consult when i can decide how correct a push is.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
Adding in more aces actually help because the ratio of the number of hands in his range that dominate your hand (AA-QQ, AK, AQ) to the number of hands that you either dominate or are close to a coinflip with becomes smaller and therefore your hand will hold up more often (about 45% of the time instead of 32%)
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it is definitely more -EV. adding small pairs and all the aces in the range gives alot more situations where you are behind by a small margin, and if you consistently do this in party sngs you will lose lots of chips. the pot odds might help compensate for this a little, but in general you don't want people calling pushes.
also, although you have a higher win percentage against this range, it is still losing to the range. my guess is that the number of hands you get called by increases enough to overcome the smaller edge your opponent has.
i might not have explained this well, but SNG power tools say pushing here loses more against a wider range. i know thats a lame way of trying to justify my argument, but it's usually what i consult when i can decide how correct a push is. |
I think its probably due to the high variance this push has (its definitely not a big +EV move) and that combined with ICM doesnt make it worthwhile. I don't know how those SNG power tools work but does it take into account the fact that other players are less likely to call if someone else has called already or does it just assume any player with that range will call no matter what the action?
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Scuba Chuck
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11-01-2005, 04:13 PM
Post subject: Re: PP 10+1. KQ 4 handed.
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#18 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by vqc
Seat 1: IModFTR ( $1445 )
Seat 6: VinnyV76 ( $1645 )
Seat 8: dying8towin ( $1235 )
Seat 9: rickcouns1 ( $3675 )
Trny:17038630 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IModFTR [ Kh Qc ]
Do you push?
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This is likely a -EV push from UTG. Here's why. You don't have the smallest chip stack. It's really that simple here. KQ is not a strong hand. In fact, it's not a strong hand from UTG in particular. It's an ok hand to see a showdown with when you're called, but all things being equal, it's not a strong hand.
I know it sucks to have to go through the blinds here soon, but that is most likely the best move. Another thing to think about, you want to allow the other stacks to make mistakes. Here is an excellent chance to let the short stack push into the bigstack. If the short stack folds, great.
There's a bigger dilemma looming by the way. Let's say you fold here, and they all fold. Next hand you're the BB, and dying8towin pushes into your big blind. What hand range are you calling with?
Here's the big picture. At this stage, if the big stack keeps accumulating chips, it has very little impact on the overall equity between you and the other smaller stacks. But, when the short stack takes chips away from the ther medium stacks, especially in my example above, this is one of the biggest equity transfers in the game. This is the type of hand, situation you need to be prepared for. Your calling standards need to change, unless you have some knowledge otherwise.
Anyhow, I fold this hand here.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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KQ four handed is strong, few hands have you dominated and I hate to bring M into this but its not even 5. Remember we are playing to win not to make the money. I still think its a marginal fold or push (starting to lean towards fold) but its definitely not clear cut.
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Gareth
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: FlopTurnRivered
Posts: 246
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hmmmmm - I would have thought this was a good push - four handed - for me I can't find a fold here.
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"To see what is right, and not to do it, is want of courage or of principle." - Confucius
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gareth
hmmmmm - I would have thought this was a good push - four handed - for me I can't find a fold here.
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I'll do the math. Give me the calling ranges for button, SB and BB.
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
Quote:
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Originally Posted by drawman
This is a topic I really dont understand probably due to my inexperience.
Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you?
What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?
Especially at this level, you'll get all kinds of people calling with Ax, any pocket pair. I dont see the point in taking the risk.
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The blinds dictate the hands you should play, when the blinds start becoming significant compared to your stack you can't afford to camp for a monster since you will either blind out or be so shortstacked by the time you get it that you will still be shortstacked even if you double up. |
Ugh. There's more to this game than just your stack and your cards. Think more man. You are not the short stack here. You have terrible position.
FWIW, this hand is closer to a push from the button. Anyhow, part of your statement above is correct for general SNG strategy. It's just misapplied here.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck
Ugh. There's more to this game than just your stack and your cards. Think more man. You are not the short stack here. You have terrible position.
FWIW, this hand is closer to a push from the button. Anyhow, part of your statement above is correct for general SNG strategy. It's just misapplied here.
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Not a huge difference between being the Button and UTG when you there are only 4 players at the table. I wasn't thinking about just my stack and my cards. Are you trying to say you only play aggressive if you are the shortest stack at the table? Accoring to Harringtons zone system this is a push. The only factor that could turn it into a fold is the fact that the players are so loose...
I don't care if you have played 1 million and 3 sngs and you are 85 years old, if you want to make posts like these please attempt to explain yourself instead of saying things like "think more man".
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Robert
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Kokkedal, Denmark
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Wow, I thought this was a pretty easy push, but it doesnt seem so correct as I thought.
So, am I right about that the following factors combined leads to a fold in this situation:
1) KQ isnt so strong a hand as it looks like - you are mostly a little behind when it comes to a race
2) your position UTG
3) you dont have the shortest stack at the table.
4) your position relative to the other shortstacks at the table
5) the calling standard for normal players in the 10s at PP is loose
Any other things to consider?
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
I don't care if you have played 1 million and 3 sngs and you are 85 years old, if you want to make posts like these please attempt to explain yourself instead of saying things like "think more man".
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It's too bad you just look at my responses as, this guy is an ass, rather than trying to formulate into words what is important. I have yet to respond with either good advice, or good questions to ask people, if the post dictates a good question. All I'm saying is, make a better case for folding. Then make your case for moving in. I'm certain even you can do that.
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Scuba Chuck
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11-01-2005, 09:48 PM
Post subject: Re: PP 10+1. KQ 4 handed.
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#26 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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OK, I just ran the math on this to PROVE it to you. BTW, I've run this about 10 times before.
If we assume the calling ranges of Button and SB are 66+, ATs+, AJo+ AND we assume Bigstack range is 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+, the results of the $EV analysis is -
-0.4%.
By the way, if I change the stacks so that our hero has the 1235 stack, and push from here, it is still only marginally +$EV. The answer is:
+0.1%
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck
Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
I don't care if you have played 1 million and 3 sngs and you are 85 years old, if you want to make posts like these please attempt to explain yourself instead of saying things like "think more man".
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It's too bad you just look at my responses as, this guy is an ass, rather than trying to formulate into words what is important. I have yet to respond with either good advice, or good questions to ask people, if the post dictates a good question. All I'm saying is, make a better case for folding. Then make your case for moving in. I'm certain even you can do that. |
Its not like you made a good case yourself, all you said was that I was wrong with no explanation. Your results prove thats its slightly -EV if the calling ranges are that loose, I never said it wasn't. All i said its not a clear fold, like you made it sound. 
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vqc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck
Ugh. There's more to this game than just your stack and your cards. Think more man. You are not the short stack here. You have terrible position.
FWIW, this hand is closer to a push from the button. Anyhow, part of your statement above is correct for general SNG strategy. It's just misapplied here.
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Accoring to Harringtons zone system this is a push. The only factor that could turn it into a fold is the fact that the players are so loose... |
Harrington can be wrong here.
Hes zone system doesnt take into account SPECIFIC holdings that your opponents can have. His zone system ONLY takes into account your positiong and cards.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Do you also use those SNG power tools to do these calculations? Not because I think your results are wrong but I would like to see someone do all the calculations step by step and see how they get to the result.
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vqc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
Do you also use those SNG power tools to do these calculations? Not because I think your results are wrong but I would like to see someone do all the calculations step by step and see how they get to the result.
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yes I use SNG power tools,
however,
if u really really really wanted me to
I could use Dethgrinds ICM calculator and give u a full blown calcualtion thingamajiggy like I did in my old old old folding AK thread.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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i thought this was a no brainer?
unless of course you have pushed 6 hands straight in which case ace high calls and you're behind but id still push without a thought
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkana
Its not like you made a good case yourself, all you said was that I was wrong with no explanation. Your results prove thats its slightly -EV if the calling ranges are that loose, I never said it wasn't. All i said its not a clear fold, like you made it sound. |
You know what, good luck to you at your games. I can't help everyone. It's not like my first post in this thread wasn't 4 paragraphs of psychological explanation (So, thanks for putting words in my mouth). Furthermore, due to the fact that I have played a bazillion SNGs, and to the fact that I have SNG powertools, and use it all the frickin time, you know it's possible, it's just quite possible I might have seen this ONE situation before? Oh, and perhaps I may have already done the math on it. Furthermore, I also knew how to do all this math stuff before powertools even came out.
Just so I'm not the complete jerk here, let's review.
all you said was that I was wrong with no explanation.
Quote:
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This is likely a -EV push from UTG. Here's why.
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Get ready. This is the lead up. I think I might have said something after this....
Point one:
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You don't have the smallest chip stack. It's really that simple here.
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Point two:
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KQ is not a strong hand. In fact, it's not a strong hand from UTG in particular.
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Point three:
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thing to think about, you want to allow the other stacks to make mistakes.
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Point four:
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At this stage, if the big stack keeps accumulating chips, it has very little impact on the overall equity between you and the other smaller stacks.
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Holy moly. I think that's 4 concrete, non-mathematical points. I don’t understand why the ‘rod-in-the-ass’ comments you’re making. Anyhow, I’m done responding to you.
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ProZachNation
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
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I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.
On a side note last SnG I played 4 left I was like 1k in chips, I went all-in PF with 77 got called by a KQ who rivered a K.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.
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reread the thread.
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ProZachNation
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.
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reread the thread. |
And?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
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lovemachine
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 190
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my push here depends on my image. if i have a tight image and have shown good hands and haven't got stealing with crap then i probably push here because the calling range will be smaller, they will fold their ace,rag and low pairs more giving you the edge you need. also depends on your opponents and how scared you think they are to bust and how fishy you think they are. these marginal +/- EV pushes should be made or not made based on factors that we cannot determine from looking at your hand history.
also, where can i find sng power tools, what are all of the features of it, and is it free?
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vqc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ProZachNation
I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.
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reread the thread. |
And? |
and the your answer doesnt have anyting to do with the conversatino we are having.
there are times where we should make -EV pushes becuase itll be less negative than all future pushes.
this is not one of these times.
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vqc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lovemachine
my push here depends on my image. if i have a tight image and have shown good hands and haven't got stealing with crap then i probably push here because the calling range will be smaller, they will fold their ace,rag and low pairs more giving you the edge you need. also depends on your opponents and how scared you think they are to bust and how fishy you think they are. these marginal +/- EV pushes should be made or not made based on factors that we cannot determine from looking at your hand history.
also, where can i find sng power tools, what are all of the features of it, and is it free?
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search google for sitngo-analyzer
it is not free
these hands are marginal +/-EV pushes becuase we can indeed put the opponents on a calling range. The point so far is that the push is -EV as long as everyone is not really tight.
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Bmxicle
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Vancouver
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Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bmxicle
Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.
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So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you?
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vqc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,427
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bmxicle
Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.
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So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you? |
this has been a point of debate before
a) do you pass up a marginal +EV push now for a more +EV push later
b) or do you make a marginal +EV push now becuase it is +EV.
c) you make a marginal +EV push now so you have more chips for more +EV pushes later
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by vqc
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bmxicle
Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.
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So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you? |
this has been a point of debate before
a) do you pass up a marginal +EV push now for a more +EV push later
b) or do you make a marginal +EV push now becuase it is +EV.
c) you make a marginal +EV push now so you have more chips for more +EV pushes later |
You realize I said neutral right?
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lovemachine
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 190
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well taking a neutral EV situation now could lead to more + EV later. some people (gigabet is the one that comes to mind) even take -EV situations because they believe it will amount to enough +EV later to make up for the -EV now. so i suppose if you think you can gain enough EV later from picking up chips from stealing or winning an all-in as a slight underdog then i think you should push a neutral EV situation like this. if when you do get lucky enough to steal blinds or double, you can't use your stack to your advantage to bully the other stacks and get into situations where you have more positive EV, then you should probably just fold the neutral EV situation. try to keep in mind your future EV in situations like this, it isn't something that can be calculated like shoving QK vs a specific calling range so you need to estimate for yourself.
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Bmxicle
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 947
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bmxicle
Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.
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So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you? |
Generally i will have reads, know calling ranges and know how more or less chips will hurt or help my folding equity later on. Since i don't do the math on every hand i play, i just do it by the feel of the other players and what i feel is the best play, so really when i'm playing there is no real "breakeven" play, i just decide which is the best course of action to take.
Strictlyin terms of math by breakeven i mean it does relaly matter what you do.
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Rockymv
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,177
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good thread...i would normally push this without thinking about it.
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Scuba Chuck
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11-02-2005, 07:46 AM
Post subject: Re: PP 10+1. KQ 4 handed.
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#46 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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I just wanted to emphasize that I think our calling range is either too tight, or just right. Big stacks call with a very wide range. I have been called with K8s, and QJo. Here, Big Stack had ducks....
***** Hand History for Game 2967983507 *****
150/300 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17070739) - Wed Nov 02 03:19:05 EST 2005
Table Table 67242 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Sirjenowic (3352)
Seat 6: Scuba_Chuck (930)
Seat 7: hartless7 (2638)
Seat 8: ElRubioX (1080)
ElRubioX posts small blind (75)
Sirjenowic posts big blind (150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba_Chuck [ 8h, 6c ]
Scuba_Chuck folds.
hartless7 folds.
ElRubioX raises (1005) to 1080
ElRubioX is all-In.
Sirjenowic calls (930)
Creating Main Pot with $2160 with ElRubioX
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qd, Qc, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 7s ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2160 |
Board: [ Qd Qc 5d 2h 7s ]
Sirjenowic balance 4432, bet 1080, collected 2160, net +1080 [ 2s 2c ] [ a full house, Twos full of queens -- Qd,Qc,2s,2c,2h ]
Scuba_Chuck balance 930, didn't bet (folded)
hartless7 balance 2638, didn't bet (folded)
ElRubioX balance 0, lost 1080 [ As Qs ] [ three of a kind, queens -- As,Qs,Qd,Qc,7s ]
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lovemachine
well taking a neutral EV situation now could lead to more + EV later. some people (gigabet is the one that comes to mind) even take -EV situations because they believe it will amount to enough +EV later to make up for the -EV now. so i suppose if you think you can gain enough EV later from picking up chips from stealing or winning an all-in as a slight underdog then i think you should push a neutral EV situation like this. if when you do get lucky enough to steal blinds or double, you can't use your stack to your advantage to bully the other stacks and get into situations where you have more positive EV, then you should probably just fold the neutral EV situation. try to keep in mind your future EV in situations like this, it isn't something that can be calculated like shoving QK vs a specific calling range so you need to estimate for yourself.
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How does Gigabet's theory of blocks relate to this? (In case you didn't know, his "taking negative -EV moves" is directly related to his block theory) Second of all, he didn't advocate taking -EV moves that would cost you your tournament life. Anyhow, you might want to consider going back to reread that post.
I'm going to continue to be a little critical of your post because I think you spent some time trying to demonstrate your thought process, meaning your're trying to learn. But your thoughts are really discombobulated.
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so i suppose if you think you can gain enough EV later from picking up chips from stealing or winning an all-in as a slight underdog then i think you should push a neutral EV situation like this.
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This is the same as pushing any two cards. This is precisely the kind of thought process that can cost you money (called expected value).
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try to keep in mind your future EV in situations like this
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I've reread this a few times now. And it still confuses me. Why do you advise to keep in mind future EV, and not consider the current EV? The only EV I'm considering at this stage, is finishing ITM.
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Gareth
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: FlopTurnRivered
Posts: 246
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If its -EV to push here when you are called then is this not just a case where you are stealing the blinds and don't want a call.
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"To see what is right, and not to do it, is want of courage or of principle." - Confucius
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Scuba Chuck
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,101
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gareth
If its -EV to push here when you are called then is this not just a case where you are stealing the blinds and don't want a call.
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EV calculations take into consideration stealing the blinds, and the potential to be called. I don't understand your statement.
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Gareth
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: FlopTurnRivered
Posts: 246
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I don't understand how someone in VQC's situation in the original post is going to fold - i understand when u say it is -EV move but sometimes in poker u have to gambol.
With his stack size he is in Push/Fold mode - if he does not push with KQo then he is likely to be blinded out IMO. As the big hands don't come along that often sometimes you just don't get them at all.
It would be good to hear from the people who play at the high stakes SnG - on what they would do here.
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"To see what is right, and not to do it, is want of courage or of principle." - Confucius
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