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Need help to understand HEM's ICM report

  
 
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Raoni_Poker
Old 06-03-2009, 01:08 AM     Post subject: Need help to understand HEM's ICM report #1 (permalink)  
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Hi, guys

I've recently purchased Holdem Manager and I'm still learning how to use it properly. Since I'm playing mostly SGs, I'm getting used to review and replay all relevant hands after each game.

I have a vague idea about ICM, which relates the amount of chips you have to a portion of the prize pool (correct me if I'm wrong). However, I'm having trouble to interpret HEM's ICM reports and I would appreciate any help.

I'm posting one hand (with the results, since the emphasis is on ICM analysis) and also, I'm posting the referred report. I read the manual but the description is too brief. I have some ponctual questions here:
1) What does this 'luck' factor mean?
2) How can I tell if the move was correct based on this report? I mean, it tells me that the results were good for me in terms of EV, but I cant see how to use it to analyze a hand.


No-Limit Hold'em, $300.00 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($1275)
Button ($8585)
SB ($3850)
BB ($1290)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, A
Hero bets $1275 (All-In), 2 folds, BB calls $975

Flop: ($2700) 6, A, 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($2700) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($2700) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $2700

Results:
BB had K, 10 (two pair, tens and sevens).
Hero had 8, A (two pair, Aces and sevens).
Outcome: Hero won $2700


The ICM report from HEM is above (players names edited):

Payouts
1 $2.50
2 $1.50
3 $1.00

Start EV End EV Diff Player
$0.76 $1.42 $0.66 Hero
$1.99 $2.01 $0.02 Button
$1.49 $1.56 $0.07 SB
$0.77 $0.01 ($0.76) BB

SNG EV analysis
Board -
Prizes $2.50 $1.50 $1.00



EV Result Luck Hand Player

$0.80 $1.42 $0.62 8sAs Hero
$2.01 $2.01 ($0.00) Button
$1.56 $1.56 ($0.00) SB
$0.63 $0.01 ($0.62) KhTh BB



hand order 8sAs > KhTh probability 56.0092%

0 stack 2700, icm ev $1.42
1 stack 8585, icm ev $2.01
2 stack 3700, icm ev $1.56
3 stack 15, icm ev $0.01



hand order KhTh > 8sAs probability 43.5315%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00
1 stack 8585, icm ev $2.02
2 stack 3700, icm ev $1.56
3 stack 2715, icm ev $1.42



hand order 8sAs = KhTh probability 0.4593%

0 stack 1350, icm ev $0.78
1 stack 8585, icm ev $1.99
2 stack 3700, icm ev $1.45
3 stack 1365, icm ev $0.78
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GatorJH
Old 06-04-2009, 02:30 PM #2 (permalink)  
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let me walk you through what I see in the report and hopefully it will help you out.

Payouts - obvious

Start EV End EV Diff Player - This is the actual ev of each player before and after the actual hand results

EV Result Luck Hand Player - I am not sure what their intended purpose of this is but it shows your ev in the hand with and without luck (ie being sucked out on) is. In this particular hand you ended up with an ev of $1.42. Your hand was a 56.0092% favorite to outright win the hand and there was a .4593% chance of tying in the hand. I THINK what they are saying is that of the $1.42 that you ended up with $0.62 was related to the luck of your hand holding up.

hand order 8sAs > KhTh probability 56.0092% - This shows your equity when you win the hand

hand order KhTh > 8sAs probability 43.5315% - This shows your equity when you lose the hand

hand order 8sAs = KhTh probability 0.4593% - This shows your equity when you tie

_____________________________

So how would I use this information? Well, honestly I wouldn't for a couple of reasons. Firstly, this analysis is against a single hand and not a range. You will never know exactly what villain has and should be making your decisions based on a range of hands that villain will call and/or push with. Therefore I would instead use SNGWIZ and/or SNGPT as they both use ranges to calculate whether or not your decision was + or - ev.

With that said, if you don't have either of these you could use this to determine the positive and negative equity of your specific hand against this specific hand in this specific instance. For instance, in this particular hand you started out with $0.76 of ev.

If your hand wins you end up with $1.42 for a gain of $0.66
If your hand loses you end up with $0.00 for a loss of $0.76
If your hand ties you end up with $0.78 for a gain of $0.02

Soooo, unless I have missed something, which is altogether possible btw, then 8 a has negative ev of $0.08 (0.66+0.02-0.76) against k t in this spot.

I hope this helps and if anyone sees or notes anything different please feel free to jump in.
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Raoni_Poker
Old 06-06-2009, 03:35 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Thanks!
These reports seems to be useful in terms of result analysis but not in terms of decision support. You cant evaluate a hand against a range and also consider you fold equitiy in calculations.

They should implement this feature.
 
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