www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

MTT variance..

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

johnny_fish

04-01-2006, 12:51 AM Post subject: MTT variance..

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee

Posts: 2,186

.. is a bitch.

My stats so far:

# played: 189 (varying from 10-50 R&A's to 25-35 FO's, mostly small fields)
total buyins: $11245
total rake: $509.50
total price money: $11792.89
total profit: $38.89
ROI: 0%

# top 3: 6 (2 wins, a 10 Limit FO (300$) and a 30$R&A (3.6K), 2 2nds, 2 3rds)
# FT: 17 (9%)
# ITM: 25 (13%)
avg # entrees: 285 (median 199)
avg position: 92
# finishes in top 10%: 27 (14%)
# finishes in top 20%: 59 (31%)
# finishes in top 30%: 97 (51%)
# finishes in top 50%: 156 (83%)
Longest no ITM streaks: 35 (still running..), 25, 20, 15

Profit graph:

Main strengths: push/fold strategy, early TAG, late selective agression.
Main weaknesses: medium stack strategy (M 8-15), read-dependent moves.

Should I play bigger fields? Just quit MTT's? Other suggestions? I would like to see some stats of experienced players (with bigger sample sizes).

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

midas06

04-01-2006, 04:12 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: NZ

Posts: 2,196

wow that sucks.

johnny_fish

04-03-2006, 02:09 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee

Posts: 2,186

Wow, interesting replies so far.

There's no one who keeps stats?

drmcboy

04-03-2006, 02:59 PM

#4 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,601

I couldn't think of much to reply with. I'll try and remember to post my stats when I go home.

Even through 189 isn't so bad.

I will say the smaller the field, the tougher it tends to be, although I can't back that up with numbers. Plus you often need to win to get a nice bump relative to BR - my two best cashes were not wins.

Why are you playing mostly smaller field events?

Are you sure early tag is a strength? It probably depends on stack sizes in the events you play but early I'm NOT raising AQ in most spots and I AM looking to play 33 almost anywhere.

drmcboy

04-03-2006, 04:27 PM

#5 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,601

# played: 350 - varying from 10-30 R&A's to 10-150 FO's, mostly 200-400 fields on UB or 500 + on PS - just moved money to PP and Paradise recently.
total buyins: $13,363
total prize money: $21,219
total profit: $7,583
ROI: 56%
# top 3: 5
Wins - 30 FO on UB, 5 rebuy on UB
Big $$ - 2nd 100 FO on Ub, 4k, 4th 150 FO on PS, 5k
# FT: 19 (5%)
# ITM: 44 (13%)
avg # entrees: 695

I will say I went through a stretch of many OOTMs
that I still hope was bad variance that I will see
repaid. I think tracking them exactly is a leak.

I think you're over worrying a bit. I'm made two FTs
in the 10 RB on stars - I took awful beats at both
that, if those hands had held, my profit could be
double or triple what it is now. OTOH, I still
remember beating an AK with my AJ in that UB 100 I
took second in. It will happen. Staying even
through 200 events IMO shows you're good enough.
Plus, you'll get better, as long as you don't let this
get to you.

johnny_fish

04-03-2006, 04:56 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee

Posts: 2,186

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Even through 189 isn't so bad.

It's probably variance, I see enough donkey moves at the tables so I must have a skill edge.

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

I will say the smaller the field, the tougher it tends to be, although I can't back that up with numbers. Plus you often need to win to get a nice bump relative to BR - my two best cashes were not wins.

I'm not sure how field size affects cash distribution.. I guess smaller fields mean lower ITM% and lower ROI. But does the variance increase too? Are 50-100 buy-in swings common at 1K+ fields?

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Why are you playing mostly smaller field events?

I play mostly at Prima; the fields are usually only 100-200. Getting to the FT within 3 hours is fun though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Are you sure early tag is a strength? It probably depends on stack sizes in the events you play but early I'm NOT raising AQ in most spots and I AM looking to play 33 almost anywhere.

Well, it depends. I'm limping anything with potential at level 1/2. I'm raising AQ OOP only if it's a FO or a tight rebuy table. I think I play the first levels reasonably well (essentially counterplay vs. the donkeys).

Anyway, I'm not really worried if I can beat MTT's or not, it's just that it seems a waste of time to play them compared to cashgames (higher hourly rate, lower variance). So maybe I should quit playing them regularly (just a few fun tourneys a week, qualifiers etc).

drmcboy

04-03-2006, 05:06 PM

#7 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,601

I would certainly see that the take I've seen from most players who are successful at both is that NL Ring has better hourly rate.

On small vs large fields - it's an arguement I have with myself too. The thing is, most tourneys I have played in the stacks are very shallow at the FT, and whoever wins the showdowns wins the FT. If that is the case, bigger tourny FTs are much better, because the payout is a nice bump to your BR even if you don't win. FT varience is the ultimate suck. When do I get to go back to the FT to pick up the equity I left there! The other side, of course, is it's harder to get to the FT.

I built my roll in SNGs. Expanded roll in MTTs. I'd like to play MTTs full time, but for times I don't have the hours for MTT I'm sort of sampling between NL ring, L ring and SNGs. So far NL ring is the winner but all have their pluses.

chardrian

04-03-2006, 05:25 PM

#8 (permalink)

I rarely,if ever, get pms

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 4,524

I think I make more money overall playing cash games but the big cashes in MTTs do wonders for your BR and your confidence, and help you move up in Limits in your cash game which (hopefully) helps you make more in your cash games as well.

And fish - to be perfectly honest, I have been keeping horrible records until recently. That has now changed, so by the end of this year I should have a small sample to post.

http://chardrian.blogspot.com
come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

JeffreyGB

04-04-2006, 04:47 AM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: Jenks, OK

Posts: 3,477

total buyins: $5190.8
total prize money: $7513.36
total profit: $2322.56
ROI: 45%
# top 3: 1
Wins - None
Big $$ - 3rd in $40k ($3.8k); 7th in $10 R/A ($1.19K)
# FT: 5 (3%)
# ITM: 28 (16%)
# Played: 178

Like char, I took a stab at stakes a tad too high when my BR jumped up...ROI and profit would have been a bit nicer if I hadn't...or if AA had freakin' held one of those three times on the bubble of the Party Specials

I run a training site...

Check out strategy videos at GrinderSchool.com, from $10 / month.

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 11:39 AM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

Tournament Poker

MTT variance..

Play for FREE and practice your game at...