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Live Mtt bubble spot

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  1. #1

    Default Live Mtt bubble spot

    Live Mtt, blinds 2000/4000 no antes, blinds up to 4000/8000 next hand. We're on the bubble 6 paid min 3x buyin.

    I'm in the SB with 14500. UTG, BB and Button are big stacks and BB is a calling station with a range (22+, A7+, KT+, QJ) for calling my AI I think.

    UTG+1 has 5000 so will be blinded away and MP is a terrible player with 11000 who has limped in and will fold most of his limping range to a shove (K2s+ is in his limping range it's that wide!).

    So, to the hand.

    UTG and UTG+1 shorty fold. weak loose MP limps. Button limps (he is weak, but has folded to a number of my shoves before so is not a station.)

    It's around to me and I have JJ

    Is this a shove?

    If I fold, I almost certainly cash this orbit (both UTG+1 and MP will be blinded out). I have to assume I'm crushing all of my opponents ranges, but the chance of being called being so great, I wondered if this is a weird bubble fold spot?
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  2. #2
    supa's Avatar
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    Ship it. We double up just by having everyone fold and we have to be crushing every calling range. Yeah, we're gonna lose some % of the time but getting it in with the best hand can't be -ev.

    I think some other pertinent info would be how much 5th, 4th... make and how big the big stacks are.
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  3. #3
    rpm's Avatar
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    i'm not particularly clued in on the intricacies of how bubbles/payout structures and etc (is that what ICM teaches one about?) influence strategy, but i think this is a shove purely because we take the pot down preflop a pretty large amount of the time, and get it in with 65+ % equity whenever we are called.
  4. #4
    google ICM calc

    I could see folding if the big stacks had like 40BBs+ or there are unusual pay jumps but assuming not I'm getting it in.
  5. #5
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    google ICM calc

    I could see folding if the big stacks had like 40BBs+ or there are unusual pay jumps but assuming not I'm getting it in.
    I concur.
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  6. #6
    The pay jumps are 30,40,50,70,90,110. So pretty weird
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