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Limping not raising early on in sngs to get a stack

  
 
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-26-2006, 01:17 AM     Post subject: Limping not raising early on in sngs to get a stack #1 (permalink)  
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with k7 suited j7 suited whatever.


Opinions Comments Hate.


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GatorJH
Old 09-26-2006, 01:28 AM #2 (permalink)  
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If you really want to open your pre-flop range early in the tourney I don't think K7 or J7 suited are hands that you want to limp with. You are better off with connectors, suited connectors (even one off connectors if you REALLY want to open it up), but you really need to remember why you are playing them.

Actually I have been contemplating the same thing so it will be interesting to hear what others have to say.
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-26-2006, 01:30 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
If you really want to open your pre-flop range early in the tourney I don't think K7 or J7 suited are hands that you want to limp with. You are better off with connectors, suited connectors (even one off connectors if you REALLY want to open it up), but you really need to remember why you are playing them.

Actually I have been contemplating the same thing so it will be interesting to hear what others have to say.

Limping early its not that great these guys are donks, just seems tighter lately. Maybe advice is out there more?

Colder weather? Helping these people actually think thats all I can think of.

But whatever.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-26-2006, 01:50 AM #4 (permalink)  
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FWIW, Kxs and Axs play nearly the same postflop in my book.

I think it's reasonable on the first level or two to take a flop with a wide range of "potential" hands if you're in position in an unraised pot with a couple of other limpers. I'm generally looking for two-pair+ to keep going post-flop. I'm not semi-bluffing early, and I'm not calling more than a minbet to draw. And just to throw the math side in: you're flopping two-pair+ around 5% of the time. So when you hit, you need to make 20x the cost of limping to make this break-even. If you think you can reasonably do that, then limp on! If you drop more than a couple hundred chips, it's probably time to tighten up and conserve the rest of your chips as artillery.
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Old 09-26-2006, 02:00 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
FWIW, Kxs and Axs play nearly the same postflop in my book.

And just to throw the math side in: you're flopping two-pair+ around 5% of the time. So when you hit, you need to make 20x the cost of limping to make this break-even. If you think you can reasonably do that, then limp on!
That is an interesting point and may be why a hand like K7, J7 is better in this spot as your hand will be VERY diguised when you do flop 2 pair or better which would make it easier to get 2ox against a hand like TPTK.

With that said as Jeffrey said I think the conditions need to be perfect for this to be worthwile in a SNG where the blinds go up quicker than in a MTT.
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-26-2006, 02:02 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
FWIW, Kxs and Axs play nearly the same postflop in my book.

I think it's reasonable on the first level or two to take a flop with a wide range of "potential" hands if you're in position in an unraised pot with a couple of other limpers. I'm generally looking for two-pair+ to keep going post-flop. I'm not semi-bluffing early, and I'm not calling more than a minbet to draw. And just to throw the math side in: you're flopping two-pair+ around 5% of the time. So when you hit, you need to make 20x the cost of limping to make this break-even. If you think you can reasonably do that, then limp on! If you drop more than a couple hundred chips, it's probably time to tighten up and conserve the rest of your chips as artillery.

Right on just like hitting a set!!! about 4% on flop.

But anyways, thats exactly right and if you do hit 2 pair you get paid in these low buy ins, limp on a-x suited, k-x suited, if you notice your burning too much early on tighten up a few sngs.

Dont make it a habit.Change it up a littl.e
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-26-2006, 02:06 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Seat 1: shcoc46 ($2,990 in chips)
Seat 2: cpierce1979 ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 3: FastEd16 ($1,700 in chips)
Seat 5: pkrjnky_to ($1,470 in chips)
Seat 6: RIPJohnGotti [JS,KS] ($1,470 in chips)
Seat 7: old64 ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 8: Jester Tim ($1,380 in chips)
Seat 9: mjm1113 ($1,460 in chips)
Seat 10: viggyt ($1,530 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
mjm1113 posts blind ($10), viggyt posts blind ($20).

PRE-FLOP
shcoc46 calls $20, cpierce1979 folds, FastEd16 folds, pkrjnky_to calls $20, RIPJohnGotti bets $150, old64 folds, Jester Tim folds, mjm1113 folds, viggyt folds, shcoc46 calls $130, pkrjnky_to calls $130.

FLOP [board cards KC,4D,JH ]
shcoc46 bets $300, pkrjnky_to folds, RIPJohnGotti bets $1,320 and is all-in, shcoc46 calls $1,020.

TURN [board cards KC,4D,JH,KH ]


RIVER [board cards KC,4D,JH,KH,7H ]


SHOWDOWN
RIPJohnGotti shows [ JS,KS ]
shcoc46 shows [ QD,KD ]
RIPJohnGotti wins $3,120.


Im not advocating raising with JK suited early on it just shows you that you can profit off these hands sometimes.
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nutsinho
Old 09-26-2006, 02:07 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Yeah, I only flop a set around 4% of the time these days
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-26-2006, 02:09 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti

Right on just like hitting a set!!! about 4% on flop.
Just FYI in case you were serious...you're about 12% to flop a set with a pocket pair.
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-26-2006, 02:12 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti

Right on just like hitting a set!!! about 4% on flop.
Just FYI in case you were serious...you're about 12% to flop a set with a pocket pair.
I was. You dont want to hear my theorum why
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Laeelin
Old 09-26-2006, 03:01 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti

Right on just like hitting a set!!! about 4% on flop.
Just FYI in case you were serious...you're about 12% to flop a set with a pocket pair.
I was. You dont want to hear my theorum why
It's not, and you have been corrected before.

Please dont post incorrect stats like that.

It could cost a new player money.

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
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Random_Hero
Old 09-26-2006, 10:46 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
I was. You dont want to hear my theorum why
seriously, I would like to hear your theorem.

your 15/2 to hit trips on the flop. That, as stated before, is 12% (11.76%) to be exact.
 
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LeFou
Old 09-26-2006, 04:58 PM #13 (permalink)  
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There is only one possible theorem to support such a statement:

The cards are not being dealt randomly.

i.e: omgwtf RIGGEED!!!11
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2_Thumbs_Up
Old 09-26-2006, 05:29 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Post the Theorem!
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Random_Hero
Old 09-26-2006, 05:55 PM #15 (permalink)  
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he wont...he never responds once he gets corrected!! Its to be expected with this joker though.

 
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-26-2006, 05:57 PM #16 (permalink)  
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But anways 52/47 x 2 =2.01

2.01, 2,01, 2.01 = about 6.
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swiggidy
Old 09-26-2006, 05:59 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
And just to throw the math side in: you're flopping two-pair+ around 5% of the time. So when you hit, you need to make 20x the cost of limping to make this break-even. If you think you can reasonably do that, then limp on!
That is an interesting point and may be why a hand like K7, J7 is better in this spot as your hand will be VERY diguised when you do flop 2 pair or better which would make it easier to get 2ox against a hand like TPTK.

With that said as Jeffrey said I think the conditions need to be perfect for this to be worthwile in a SNG where the blinds go up quicker than in a MTT.
Maybe this is part of the "ideal situation" but if you get raised pre-flop and have to ditch your hand then 20x won't cut it either.

If it gets raised 1 in 3 times, now you're paying 1.5BB to see the flop and need to make 1.5 * 20 = 30 BB to break even.

If it's raised 1 in 5, you're paying 1.25 so you need 25BB

Also, you need to average 20x (or 25x or 30x). So you really need to win more because often enough you won't get paid.
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swiggidy
Old 09-26-2006, 06:07 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
But anways 52/47 x 2 =2.01

2.01, 2,01, 2.01 = about 6.
Now you're making up your own maths? You are truly amazing

I couldn't find his theory post, but here's a good one...
Pocket Pair Problems
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Random_Hero
Old 09-26-2006, 06:25 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
But anways 52/47 x 2 =2.01

2.01, 2,01, 2.01 = about 6.
please explain... to me, thats just numbers... whats what?

man your a fool!!
 
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-26-2006, 06:26 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Yeah im a fool..Okay.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-26-2006, 06:51 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
Maybe this is part of the "ideal situation" but if you get raised pre-flop and have to ditch your hand then 20x won't cut it either.

If it gets raised 1 in 3 times, now you're paying 1.5BB to see the flop and need to make 1.5 * 20 = 30 BB to break even.

If it's raised 1 in 5, you're paying 1.25 so you need 25BB

Also, you need to average 20x (or 25x or 30x). So you really need to win more because often enough you won't get paid.
This is why I specified you want to be in position with limpers for this to be a consideration. Having multiple limpers makes it much more likely someone will pay you off a bit, plus it makes the pot that much larger (also making payoff more likely as it's a lower amount relative to the pot).

You're right in that it should be noted that this is a bad idea at a table where the blinds are likely to raise a limped field without a massive hand. In a lot of cases, they won't, however, as they'll figure they won't get anyone off anything. At an aggressive table, this type of limp is bad for the reraise reason.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-26-2006, 06:58 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
But anways 52/47 x 2 =2.01

2.01, 2,01, 2.01 = about 6.
What exactly do you think 52/47 represents?

Here's the real math behind it:
1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48) = 1 - 0.8824 = 0.1176 = 11.76% (as stated above).

The 48/50, 47/49, and 46/48 represent individual probabilities for not getting either of your two outs on the first, second, and third card (respectively) of the flop. So multiplying them together gives you the probability that you won't hit them on the flop as a whole. Since we want to know the probability of hitting, we subtract the probability of not hitting from 1.

Note: 11.76% is actually the chance of flopping a set or better. A very small part of that is flopping quads.
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swiggidy
Old 09-26-2006, 07:00 PM #23 (permalink)  
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^^^ you're trying too hard
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Random_Hero
Old 09-26-2006, 07:40 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
Yeah im a fool..Okay.
you've proved it in the past...

anyway, please explain sum you posted a few posts back... or was it just made up?
 
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-26-2006, 08:04 PM #25 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
^^^ you're trying too hard
That wasn't posted as much for RJG's benefit as for the benefit of other readers. I figure that some people (a) might want to see how the calcuations are actually performed and (b) if they don't know which is which, they might want to see the reasons that 12% is correct [that is, this gives new players more reason to accept the truth than "well, that's what everyone seems to agree on, so I guess it's correct"]
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Rondavu
Old 09-26-2006, 08:08 PM #26 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Random_Hero
Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
Yeah im a fool..Okay.
you've proved it in the past...

anyway, please explain sum you posted a few posts back... or was it just made up?
Don't look now, but there are a crowd of people acting coy behind you. Why don't you join us?
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Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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LeFou
Old 09-26-2006, 11:41 PM #27 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
But anways 52/47 x 2 =2.01

2.01, 2,01, 2.01 = about 6.
I think it's official: RJG is and always has been nothing but a troll.
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LeFou
Old 09-26-2006, 11:46 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
Quote:
Originally Posted by ripjohngotti
But anways 52/47 x 2 =2.01

2.01, 2,01, 2.01 = about 6.
Now you're making up your own maths? You are truly amazing

I couldn't find his theory post, but here's a good one...
Pocket Pair Problems
Nice link, swig. Fave line: "In ring yeah ill call raises with [pocket pairs] and raise with em if there 7 above, but 2 and below limp and call small raises"

So there are pairs below 2 now? I can't believe we fell for this crap for so long.
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FlyingSaucy
Old 09-27-2006, 12:02 AM #29 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
FWIW, Kxs and Axs play nearly the same postflop in my book.

I think it's reasonable on the first level or two to take a flop with a wide range of "potential" hands if you're in position in an unraised pot with a couple of other limpers. I'm generally looking for two-pair+ to keep going post-flop. I'm not semi-bluffing early, and I'm not calling more than a minbet to draw. And just to throw the math side in: you're flopping two-pair+ around 5% of the time. So when you hit, you need to make 20x the cost of limping to make this break-even. If you think you can reasonably do that, then limp on! If you drop more than a couple hundred chips, it's probably time to tighten up and conserve the rest of your chips as artillery.
I'm beginning to worship just about everything JGB says.

In reviewing my HH this week I've come across a major preflop leak in my game - limping with weak hands in the blinds. Either calling from the SB with a weak drawing hand, or calling a minraise from the BB with a weak drawing hand. You just can't afford to do it.

Say you're in the SB with Axs and there is one limper. Fold. 2 limpers? fold. 3 or more limpers? Consider the call, if the BB is not aggressive preflop. It is simply not worth it calling in the SB when 95% of the time you are going to see a worthless flop and are OOP. Limping behind early in the game with 2 or 3 other limpers already in, maybe. But definitely not in the blinds.
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ripjohngotti
Old 09-27-2006, 12:06 AM #30 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
FWIW, Kxs and Axs play nearly the same postflop in my book.

I think it's reasonable on the first level or two to take a flop with a wide range of "potential" hands if you're in position in an unraised pot with a couple of other limpers. I'm generally looking for two-pair+ to keep going post-flop. I'm not semi-bluffing early, and I'm not calling more than a minbet to draw. And just to throw the math side in: you're flopping two-pair+ around 5% of the time. So when you hit, you need to make 20x the cost of limping to make this break-even. If you think you can reasonably do that, then limp on! If you drop more than a couple hundred chips, it's probably time to tighten up and conserve the rest of your chips as artillery.



I'm beginning to worship just about everything JGB says.

In reviewing my HH this week I've come across a major preflop leak in my game - limping with weak hands in the blinds. Either calling from the SB with a weak drawing hand, or calling a minraise from the BB with a weak drawing hand. You just can't afford to do it.

Say you're in the SB with Axs and there is one limper. Fold. 2 limpers? fold. 3 or more limpers? Consider the call, if the BB is not aggressive preflop. It is simply not worth it calling in the SB when 95% of the time you are going to see a worthless flop and are OOP. Limping behind early in the game with 2 or 3 other limpers already in, maybe. But definitely not in the blinds.

Right well 1/3 x u will hit your hand on the flop(pair it) so ...Its like Ive got to choose how im feeling and if I want to play it more so then other factors.


freakin luck.
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JeffreyGB
Old 09-27-2006, 04:06 AM #31 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy
I'm beginning to worship just about everything JGB says.
Thanks, FS. That comment made my day.

That said, I make mistakes too. Hell, in the live MTT I played this weekend, I made two big ones that I'm still kicking myself over.
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Random_Hero
Old 09-27-2006, 09:35 AM #32 (permalink)  
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ripjohn, you've still not told us how you worked out that sum?

completely ignored it. So, it is safe to say, it was a load of bullsh*t!!

good job!!
 
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ShowMeAtlas
Old 09-30-2006, 09:19 PM #33 (permalink)  
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Limping early on with these trash hands is just bleeding chips that can be put to better use later on. As has been said, we're probably going to need 2 pair or better to continue on the flop and even then we may well get burned. Stay out of trouble early on, bin the trash hands.
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LeFou
Old 09-30-2006, 09:57 PM #34 (permalink)  
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Hey Atlas. Welcome. You might want to skip the ripjohngotti threads. Long story
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Old 10-01-2006, 12:25 AM #35 (permalink)  
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Thanks. I'm beginning to see that already...

If this guy is such a pain in the ass troll, why hasn;t he been banned?
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