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KQo vs Ax in the bubble

  
 
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allLiving
Old 08-09-2004, 04:34 AM     Post subject: KQo vs Ax in the bubble #1 (permalink)  
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Was this a bad call on my part? I'd especially like an opinion from ripptyde since we have similar tourney strategies. I feel I made a good call but my friend thinks it was a terrible call. I think we just have different strategies and both of us are right. What do you tourney players think?

*********** # 15 **************
PokerStars Game #601416885: Tournament #2295310, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII
(200/400) - 2004/08/08 - 15:24:37 (ET)
Table '2295310 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 9: Sabthegreat (3640 in chips)
Seat 2: nleijon (1780 in chips)
Seat 6: allLiving (8080 in chips)
nleijon: posts the ante 25
allLiving: posts the ante 25
Sabthegreat: posts the ante 25
nleijon: posts small blind 200
allLiving: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to allLiving [Kc Qs]
Sabthegreat: raises 3215 to 3615 and is all-in
nleijon: folds
allLiving: calls 3215
allLiving said, "gl"
*** FLOP *** [7d 6d 5c]
*** TURN *** [7d 6d 5c] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [7d 6d 5c 9c] [3c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
allLiving: shows [Kc Qs] (high card King)
Sabthegreat: shows [Ah 7c] (a pair of Sevens)
allLiving said, "gh"
Sabthegreat collected 7505 from pot
Sabthegreat said, "ahhh, ty !"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7505 | Rake 0
Board [7d 6d 5c 9c 3c]
Seat 9: Sabthegreat (button) showed [Ah 7c] and won (7505) with a pair of Sevens
Seat 2: nleijon (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: allLiving (big blind) showed [Kc Qs] and lost with high card King

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Fnord
Old 08-09-2004, 04:47 AM #2 (permalink)  
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KQ is a dog to any Ace or pair.
 
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michael1123
Old 08-09-2004, 05:00 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Its kind of borderline, but I probably wouldn't call that against anyone but a maniac. My reasoning is that its not the short stack to your right that's going in, its the middle stack under the gun (and outside of the blinds), so you know they have a hand. They're not going to risk going out 3rd with a big lead on 3rd place with a hand that's worse than yours.

Best case scenario, its a coinflip with a pocket pair lower than Q. Next best is an ace with a kicker lower than Q, which they did have. Other than those hands, you'd be completely dominated against AK, AQ, KK, QQ. AA isn't likely in my opinion, as they'd almost always play it much slower, looking for a call.

Plus the blinds are very reasonable compared to your stack. So yeah, I'd fold there. But on the other hand, if UTG folded and the SB went all in, it'd be a very easy call to me. Very small stack compared to yours, and its more likely to be a pure steal attempt, with a hand that you dominate, as well.
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Old 08-09-2004, 05:21 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Old 08-09-2004, 05:25 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Old 08-09-2004, 05:38 AM #6 (permalink)  
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allLiving
Old 08-09-2004, 06:00 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Thank you rippy, that's EXACTLY my reasoning. You can't instantly put him on Ax, and even if I could I'd call.. Low pocket pairs, I'll call. Low pocket pairs get wasted by over cards all the time.

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michael1123
Old 08-09-2004, 07:23 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
The guy is either trying to steal or desperate.
Why do you get this idea? The guy going all in has no money commited to the pot, and a huge chip advantage over the guy in 3rd place. At best its a coinflip or the KQ is a slight dog to Ax. The other times, you're dominated, and you'll never dominate unless the guy is a maniac. And like I said, I'd call for sure if I thought he'd go all in on any non-paired, non-A hand. 90% of players would not. You would, and I would call you in that situation every time as well. Its about knowing what your opponents would push in that situation.

Quote:
you had favorable pot odds since even losing here you are still chip leader.
Um, first thing, the pot odds are even money basically, since the raise is so much more than the blinds. 2nd thing, he wasn't anywhere close to being the chip leader if he lost the hand. AllLiving goes down to 4k something, and the other guy goes to 7.5k.

I don't think its a "crazy call", and the friend is off on that. But I'd much prefer to be the one pushing all in with KQ as the big stack, rather than calling an all in from the 2nd biggest stack.
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Fnord
Old 08-09-2004, 09:00 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
The self-weighted list is better...

KQo: 0.544779
 
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Toasty
Old 08-09-2004, 10:00 AM #10 (permalink)  
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I'm on coming down on the side of calling here too unless this was the first time he had moved all in. The blinds are pretty big at the moment and people start stealing the blinds with a lot less than KQos (Sometimes they plain steal with rags, ask Ripper ) and I'd expect to be ahead most of the time. This is one of the troubles with SnGs, they tend to become showdown poker near the end.
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Old 08-09-2004, 11:24 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Old 08-09-2004, 11:27 AM #12 (permalink)  
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johnnyawe
Old 08-09-2004, 05:50 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Horrible call.

You just know the guy has Ax or a pocket pair, possibly even AK or AQ. You are absolutely gauranteed to be an underdog. Probaby a small dog, but who cares?

Why would you want to risk half your stack in a coin flip or worse scenario. If you're a short stack, you HAVE to do this because a coin flip is about the best you can hope for. If you try to wait for anything better you might get blinded away. If you're a tall stack, you can afford to wait until you're a huge favorite. I just can't think of any reason to make this call.

Let the other players play russian roullette with their chips. As the chip leader and a skilled player, you don't have to.
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johnnyawe
Old 08-09-2004, 06:01 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
Losing the hand he is only basically tied again for chip leader.....quit folding and roll the dice when you have a stack advantage.
Ripp I just do not see how this could be +EV. Why do you want to "roll the dice" when you have a stack advantage? If you have a skill edge over the other players, why would you want to willingly enter a coin flip situation? Thats just opening the door for the less skilled players to get right back in the game.

The poor players LOVE to get in a coin flip scenario because 50/50 is about the best they can hope for. Why would you want to oblige them?
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Fnord
Old 08-09-2004, 06:10 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNatural
The poor players LOVE to get in a coin flip scenario because 50/50 is about the best they can hope for. Why would you want to oblige them?
Because if you're not willing to gamble without a premium hand, then I will take your blinds over and over and over again until you catch that premium hand. By then, I'm likely playing with your chips.
 
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Humphrind
Old 08-09-2004, 06:10 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Doyle Brunson hates KQ and I'm starting to agree with him. I used to think it was my cursed hand, but now I know, it's everyone's cursed hand.

This situation has happened a lot to me. I am short stacked in the bubble. I get delt KQ and go all in (hoping to steal blinds or crossing my fingers that I can double up) Ax calls me and I go out of the tourney.

I don't want to limp with that hand, but I'm starting to feel like it's garbage and very tempted to limp, and fold if I do not hit top pair on the flop.
I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.
 
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johnnyawe
Old 08-09-2004, 06:21 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Fnord, I understand what you're saying, but I'm not advocating camping out with the tall stack. You've got to be agressive and force them to fold or make calls or re-raisees they shouldn't make, as you've said in other threads.

But in this situation, with the other guy's chips already in the center and virtually no chance that I'll be the favorite, I'm going to fold. Pushing all-in maybe, but calling all-in is no good here.
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KewlKatt
Old 08-09-2004, 06:57 PM #18 (permalink)  
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I'll have to sway towards ripps theory.

Letting anyone with a shorter stack take down your blinds is an open invitation for everyone at the table to start taking a shot at them. Whats a prem hand going these days on online sites? 1 and 10-14 chance of getting premium pokets?

Showing everyone your willing to protect your blinds will likely result in somone not trying to steal, and if they do, they are more likely to have the cards next time.

Late in MTT tourneys I find going after the big stacks blinds when they are to my left very successful. most don't like to go chase flops on marginal hands because of the reasons you all are stating.

I am constantly taking notes on who is likely to protect thier blinds and who arn't. also who is likely to steal at what position. If it looks like a steal and you have the chips, push everytime...

I love hitting the Q or 10,J against an AK pocket... they never seem to be able to lay down the slick with those cards flopping. I play a little more carefull if a K flops.
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michael1123
Old 08-10-2004, 05:05 AM #19 (permalink)  
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The other side of the argument seems to be overstating the issue. As the big stack, I still protect my blinds. If someone min or 3x BB raised me, in this situation, I'd possibly reraise or shove all in, and certainly call. They aren't going to steal my blinds regularly, and like I said, even if they're going all in often, that makes this an easy call. But if they're playing tight (which I'd assume the 2nd biggest stack surely would here to try and avoid being 3rd) and they all of a sudden go all in, you know you're a dog, like Natural said. Its just a question of whether your a small dog, which would be alright, or a huge dog, which means you're almost sure to lose your chip lead, just because you couldn't lay a hand down when you know they're the favorite.

I feel like I have to keep saying this, but I'm always aggressive as a big stack. But aggressive isn't calling as a dog, aggressive is pushing the small stacks around. Fold, and I'm sure you'll be very likely able to take his blinds on the next few hands, while he waits for 3rd place stack to go out. Call, and then you're hopefully flipping a coin.

Personally, I'm more confident in my ability to maintain a strong lead than I am in my ability to win what is at best a coinflip.
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Toasty
Old 08-10-2004, 10:52 AM #20 (permalink)  
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KQ is a monster hand 3 handed. With the size of the blinds you are going to have to start having races sooner or later, its currently T225 per hand, he only has around 35 hands left not including the impact of the level going up. You could easily be dealt trash for the next 20 hands, I think this is a perfect opportunity to get heads up as the big stack.

I'm interested to find out what cards the folders would call with here and the minimum they would steal raise with?
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