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KK on the bubble: how would you play?

  
 
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jmmp71
Old 10-16-2009, 08:43 PM     Post subject: KK on the bubble: how would you play? #1 (permalink)  

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jmmp71
Hi there - I'm a very casual player, mostly small stakes NL tournaments, maybe a couple a week, nothing too frequent. So I apologize if this one is a no-brainer but I'm curious how the more experienced players would handle it.

4 players left in single table tourney. Blinds 75/150. I'm big stack with about 5000, the only threat is in 2nd place with about 4200. Seems clear at least one of the other two will be gone in a few orbits.

I'm UTG with KK and raise to 450, fold to my left, then SB pushes all-in for his 4200. BB folds. I call his all-in. He shows QQ and of course a Q comes on the flop. (Next hand I shove with AJs and go out on the bubble.)

Was it a good call and I just got unlucky? Or should I have folded to his shove and just been patient, not get involved until I'm in the money? Thanks for your insight.
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taipan168
Old 10-16-2009, 10:45 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Hi and welcome to the forums (or at least this one since I don't think you've posted here before).

You played this hand fine. You got your chips in as an 80% favourite and got unlucky - there's nothing more you could have done.

I'll demonstrate this using ICM analysis (which is very relevant because you were the big stack up against the second stack). I'm assuming that the third and fourth stacks were roughly equal, ie. that there wasn't a stack around with like 100 chips or something.

- If you fold you will have 4650 chips worth 31.1% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 9350 chips worth 43.3% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you will have 800 chips worth 11.0% of the prize pool

Therefore, you need to be (31.1-11.0)/(43.3-11.0) = 62% to win against his range to make this a good call.

Against TT+, AK (which is a very tight range) you are 65% to win so calling is +EV by quite a big margin. Interestingly, KK is the worst hand that you could call with here assuming he is shoving TT+, AK (of course if he shoves looser you can call looser).

By the way, you shouldn't post the results of the hand since they don't really matter (frustrating though they were!).
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Jack Sawyer
Old 10-17-2009, 07:47 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 It depends.

On the bubble, when I'm top chip, I like to bet with all sorts of crappy hands all the time just to steal the blinds. I have an acute case of showdown aversion on the bubble though, so I may even fold kings in this situation (which I have done plenty of times).

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Or should I have folded to his shove and just been patient, not get involved until I'm in the money
No, you should do the exact opposite actually. Be involved, very involved. Just know who to avoid as in who can hurt you the most etc.

Use your big stack (and the fear it dishes) like the weapon that it is.
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