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hlester25
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06-29-2008, 05:24 AM
Post subject: Is this just Variance hitting me?
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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Been taking MTT's fairly seriously now for about 12-13 months now.
Here's my stats from the first 8 months from FTP and Stars conbined-
# MTT's: 500
avg buy in: 11.00
ROI: 109%
total profit: slightly under 6K
Heres overall stats currently
# MTT's: 884
avg buy in: $13.00
ROI: 22%
total p[rofit: 2500
My biggest score is 1800. Is this variance just getting me or am I just not that good?
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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i did play the MIL twice for 215 a piece and I played about 6 109's which have effected the stats but even without these tournies my results have fell off the map
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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probably the biggest challenge MTTs present is you need a huge sample size to get anywhere close to a reliable sample. So maybe it's variance and maybe it's you not that good. All you can do is constantly evaluate your play and have 100 buy ins
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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how big is huge?
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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I have heard people say 10k. that's probably even more true at lower BIs just because of the bigger field size and bad structures. I would say at least 3k.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-art...n-MTTs-2426235
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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cool, ty for your help. appreciated.
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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So I guess a 400 MTT downswing is not too uncommon.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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if that's the worst you hit you're doing great.
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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Cool. Just took down my second 4.40 180 man in my last 8 or 10 so things starting to look better. Just waiting on that big score in a large field event
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herschelw
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 26
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30% roi in mtt's right now's not bad. It's probably solid for the ABI you have if you are multitabling a lot of tables. If you are one or two tabling it's a bit low but realistically if you're on a big downswing your actual roi firgures to be a bit higher than what your stats currently show.
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Online winnings since august '05 $345k+
Live tournament winnings since Jan '06 $330k+
Online final tables: 100+
Check out my training videos at:
www.pokerpwnage.com
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by herschelw
30% roi in mtt's right now's not bad. It's probably solid for the ABI you have if you are multitabling a lot of tables. If you are one or two tabling it's a bit low but realistically if you're on a big downswing your actual roi firgures to be a bit higher than what your stats currently show.
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I usually play 4-6 tables when I play, but sometimes only 2 or 3. Actually that brings up a good point because when I first started getting into MTT's, I would only play one or two at a time. Only recently have I started to play 4-6 tables almost all the time I play. I'm sure this has effected my ROI. Ive also been incorporating various "plays" into my game. I switch gears from TAG to LAG to maniac a lot. I know it takes time to get good at this since before I would only play TAG (a little looser TAG than normal but still TAG). Do you think the ROI drop could be attributed to the growing pains? I do feel I am getting better overall but just don't have overall results yet to make me feel good
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herschelw
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 26
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Generally in the buyins you play TAG play is almost a must until the very late stages. But by TAG I dont mean "old man" style. You would still limp 67s behind another limper and play small pairs to set mine if you have the correct implied odds etc. $50 buyin plus then switching gears to LAG at times is very valuable. I think you will find consistent and better results if you stick to a TAG style of play. I've always been a pretty LAG player myself but you have to adapt to the buyin and the situation. I generally play 12 tables at a time(mtt's) and run around a 30% roi over the long run on stars and ftp(higher on smaller sites). You're definitly going to take some time to adjust to 4-6 tabling and the challenges it presents. If your style depends on great reads during early or middle levels it will clearly be a bit of a struggle playing more tables. Also, adding LAG elements to your game and playing more tables simultaneously is generally a bad idea because both changes take time to adjust to and present you with problems to conquer. Doing both at the same time compounds things.
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Online winnings since august '05 $345k+
Live tournament winnings since Jan '06 $330k+
Online final tables: 100+
Check out my training videos at:
www.pokerpwnage.com
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by herschelw
Generally in the buyins you play TAG play is almost a must until the very late stages. But by TAG I dont mean "old man" style. You would still limp 67s behind another limper and play small pairs to set mine if you have the correct implied odds etc. $50 buyin plus then switching gears to LAG at times is very valuable. I think you will find consistent and better results if you stick to a TAG style of play. I've always been a pretty LAG player myself but you have to adapt to the buyin and the situation. I generally play 12 tables at a time(mtt's) and run around a 30% roi over the long run on stars and ftp(higher on smaller sites). You're definitly going to take some time to adjust to 4-6 tabling and the challenges it presents. If your style depends on great reads during early or middle levels it will clearly be a bit of a struggle playing more tables. Also, adding LAG elements to your game and playing more tables simultaneously is generally a bad idea because both changes take time to adjust to and present you with problems to conquer. Doing both at the same time compounds things.
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Great advice, ty. I'm starting to see now why I've been slumping. I really did go from 1-2 tables to 4-6 tables without ever really thinking about the implications. I knew my ROI would fall, just not as much as it did. I have about 3 solid months of 4-6 tabling experience. Now that I'm getting better at it, I can see where I was making mistakes. After a terrible April and May, I had a winning month in June with a 70% ROI over 70ish MTT's. I also played about 250 18 man turbos (6 and sometimes 9 tabling) and had a 40% ROI. This has helped some with the dwindling roll.
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