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JJ on monotone undercard flop ($15/180)

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  1. #1

    Default JJ on monotone undercard flop ($15/180)

    Hi everybody, it's been a long time, I hope that you've all been well.

    Firing up Stars after quite a long break, I came across this situation in a $15/180. No particular reads on opp. What's your move after the flop raise?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 15 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds 4 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

    MP2 (t1,491)
    MP3 (t1,481)
    CO (t1,401)
    Button (t1,461)
    SB (t1,672)
    BB (t1,491)
    UTG (t1,431)
    UTG+1 (t3,072)
    Hero (MP1) (t1,488)

    Hero's M: 18.37

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J
    UTG calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t120, 3 folds, Button raises to t210, 3 folds, Hero calls t90

    Flop: (t531) 8, 4, 10 (2 players)
    Hero bets t250, Button raises to t900, Hero ????
  2. #2
    Hero folds. The way I'm seeing this this goes very poorly for Hero in a variety of ways. The 3bet preflop by Villain could easily be indicative of AA, KK,or QQ and probably is, but even if it's AK or AQ and most likely one of them is a diamond. Look what you're facing. Are you ready to lay your tournament life on the line because even if you're ahead you're still a dog here, under any of the 5 likely holdings of Villain.

    Your best case scenario is he holds AK or AQ and very likely one of those is a diamond and if that's the case with 9 outs for him hitting the flush and 6 potential over cards in this situation you are still a 52/48 underdog to survive. Save this fight for a better opportunity. Swear about it, grumble about it, but fold that jacks.
  3. #3
    The mistake here was leading on the flop. You almost certainly should have check/called.
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  4. #4
    Eric's Avatar
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    Hi taipan168,


    It is nice to have you back from your break.


    We have less than 50 big blinds and there are antes so I don't beat myself up too much if a heads up opponent flops a flush and beats us when we're not super deep. It isn't as stressful as when we have 100 big blinds where deeper thoughts go into it.


    His 3-bet min raise is a concern. Hands like QQ, KK and AA are part of his range. We're ahead of a lot of hands like AT, pairs with flush draws, and straight draws but how often does a random player 3-bet min raise with these types of hands preflop?


    Calling doesn't technically put us all in but we can't just call. We either fold or shove knowing that we have no fold equity for the last 128 chips or whatever.


    It's too bad we have no reads because it's an easy shove for me against overly aggressive players.


    Against an unknown it is a harder decision.


    I wouldn't criticize people for folding, maybe that's the best choice here. Still, I probably shove some of the time as I've already put in close to 1/3rd of my chips.


    Like donkbee said, I'm not in this spot in the first place when I check to the preflop aggressor.
  5. #5
    chardrian's Avatar
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    As played, yeah now u just get it in.

    I agree that I would just c/c that flop tho. Don't really see the point in leading there.
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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by donkbee View Post
    The mistake here was leading on the flop. You almost certainly should have check/called.
    This was my thought as I read the OP. I'd even consider c/f.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    As played, this is surely a clear fold.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    As played, this is surely a clear fold.
    As played, I don't see how you can fold getting almost 3:1 pot odds.
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  9. #9
    We don't have anywhere near 33% equity imo
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    Wait we need 25%... still unconvinced
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
    Let's see if my combo counting is up to scratch...

    I'm gonna give him AQ+ QQ+, and assume he's willing to stack all his AQ/AK with a diamond, and all of his QQ+. We'll ignore JJ, because it's one combo and we're chopping 2/3, so it's more or less negligible.

    AQ+ QQ+ total combos - 16+16+6+6+6 = 50... a nice round number
    QQ+ = 18 combos
    AQ/AK with diamond = 8+8 = 16 combos
    folds = 16 combos

    overpairs = 18/50 = 36%
    since his overpairs have a diamond half the time, we have close to an average of 1.5 outs against this range, which I think is a tad over 3% equity

    draws = 16/50 = 32%

    Let's say this is 50/50 to make life easier (it's 48/52 according to above post)

    32% of the time we have 50% equity
    36% of the time we have 3% equity
    (36% of the time he folds to our flop bet, and we're not faced with a decision)

    18+16=34
    18/34*100 = 53%
    16/34*100 = 47%

    Let's just make this easy. Half the time he's drawing, half the time we're crushed.

    If we had exactly 0% when we're behind, and exactly 50% when we're not, and these are both equally likely, then we'd have exactly 25% equity on average. This is much closer than I realised.

    The fact he's slightly more likely to have an overpair than a draw, and slightly ahead when he has overcards + diamond, means I think we're just shy on the required equity. Just. But maybe he doesn't do this with just the Qd or Kd.

    It's really really close, much more so than I aniticpated. I expected <20%
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
    Also, we don't have 3:1, we have nearly 3:1, that's another near negligible adjustment against us when we're super close.

    This is still a fold imo, but putting the money in isn't a terrible mistake like I first thought. The mistake was leading the flop, and this is the result. A decision for our tournament life with around 3:1 potodds and around 25% equity. Hardly the kind of spot I thrive on.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #13
    I think it's a fold because we will be left with nearly 40bb, which is a decent stack at any stage of the game. Calling this for our tournament life with such little equity when we have near on exactly the right price seems crazy. If it's a break even call in terms of chip return on average, it's a +ev fold because we still keep the equity our chips are worth relative to the prize pool.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #14
    Eric's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I think it's a fold because we will be left with nearly 40bb, which is a decent stack at any stage of the game

    I get 34.3bb (1,488 - 210 - 250 = 1,028 and 1,028/30 = 34.3).


    More importantly, the $4 antes mean that our M ratio is under 13 if we fold (divisor is 4*9 + 15 + 30 or 36 + 15 + 30 or 81 and 1,028/81 = 12.7)
  15. #15
    Yeah I'm overrating the playability of our stack if we fold; I hadn't factored in antes, and my quick maths was poor.

    Still, if we're facing a break even call with 25% equity for our tournament life, I'd rather fold and shove the next half decent hand I see, it's gotta be a better spot than this.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 07-16-2015 at 08:40 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #16
    Eric's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Still, if we're facing a break even call with 25% equity for our tournament life, I'd rather fold and shove the next half decent hand I see, it's gotta be a better spot than this.
    Yeah, it's a tough spot with no reads. Hard to argue with the choice of folding.
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by donkbee View Post
    The mistake here was leading on the flop. You almost certainly should have check/called.
    Thanks everybody for the replies, very helpful. Feeling very rusty as you can probably tell!

    Is the logic for c/c to keep the pot small?
  18. #18
    Button mini reraise to only 210 might indicate he has monsters like AA or KK, of course this depends significantly on your read at the table. Against tight players I would only call 2 streets and will give up if he keep firing on turn/river. In general move all-in right on the flop is not a bad choice, you have only 18BB before the hand anyway, your stack is too low to fold I believe.

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