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Nakamura
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03-31-2010, 05:54 PM
Post subject: Hero flops two pair TK on XXY board ($10.40 DON)
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Grindin'
Posts: 1,511
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No reads on this player since I'm multitabling and this is the second hand. I think we can safely assume that if this guy is limp calling from the SB at this level, he is a bad player. What do you do on the flop?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.4 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (10 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1510)
CO (t1530)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1100)
Hero (BB) (t1500)
UTG (t1890)
UTG+1 (t1500)
UTG+2 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
Hero's M: 50.00
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , J
8 folds, SB calls t10, Hero bets t90, SB calls t70
Flop: (t180) J , Q, Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t100, SB raises to t1010 (All-In), Hero ??
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Uncster
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High Card
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 14
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Fold. Second hand, no reads, you've still got most of your stack.
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Nakamura
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Grindin'
Posts: 1,511
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Does anyone feel like his range is really skewed towards weak draws and weaker jacks? It just seems like he has a hand that is scared to play multiple post-flop streets.
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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i never play DON's but this definitely looks like a weaker J / Draw. he's shoving a Q???
how much does your equity increase by doubling up here in a DON.
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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hard to word this question but, ICM doesn't include your edge over the field when calculating your equity, how much more of an edge can you push with a double stack compared to an medium stack on the bubble. do you believe a double stack increases your equity more than ICM would determine, based on the edge you would have over the field with a big stack, or are most of the players solid enough that its minimal. not sure if that makes any sense.
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Uncster
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High Card
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 14
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Trips scared of a flush.
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Nakamura
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Grindin'
Posts: 1,511
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fulksy
hard to word this question but, ICM doesn't include your edge over the field when calculating your equity, how much more of an edge can you push with a double stack compared to an medium stack on the bubble. do you believe a double stack increases your equity more than ICM would determine, based on the edge you would have over the field with a big stack, or are most of the players solid enough that its minimal. not sure if that makes any sense.
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If we got all our chips in we would need to be about 65% to win. However, if we call and lose we will still have 400 chips. So I guess we need to win a little less as we will still have some equity in the tournament. Without doing the calculation, I would think we would probably have to win 60-65% of the time.
Having a big stack stack gives you much more freedom to shove marginal hands on medium stacks. These are typically hands you have to fold when the stacks are even since your bubble factor is MUCH larger against a similar size stack.
Pinning down this value is pretty much impossible, but let's say it's worth 1-3% ROI.
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