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Sprayed
Old 11-01-2009, 06:03 PM     Post subject: Fold? #1 (permalink)  
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 The guy has nit stats. I don't believe that I can call for set value. Is this a fold? Can I call not just for set value but also because 99 can make more hands than just a set? I believe that it will be hard to play post flop when oop and if others call and the pot gets big.

PokerStars Game #34789694694: Tournament #208010397, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2009/11/01 13:52:28 ET
Table '208010397 115' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: NoA.hpx (6134 in chips)
Seat 2: Fribbe85 (3200 in chips)
Seat 3: Sandi1969 (6380 in chips)
Seat 4: Benyfox (11472 in chips)
Seat 5: Sprayed (10060 in chips)
Seat 6: mavs42 (5827 in chips)
Seat 7: MariahC (2367 in chips)
Seat 8: udunwantnun (1940 in chips)
Seat 9: s_t_bux_a_x (8690 in chips)
NoA.hpx: posts the ante 25
Fribbe85: posts the ante 25
Sandi1969: posts the ante 25
Benyfox: posts the ante 25
Sprayed: posts the ante 25
mavs42: posts the ante 25
MariahC: posts the ante 25
udunwantnun: posts the ante 25
s_t_bux_a_x: posts the ante 25
NoA.hpx: posts small blind 125
Fribbe85: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sprayed [9c 9h]
Sandi1969: folds
Benyfox: raises 500 to 750
Sprayed:
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baudib
Old 11-01-2009, 06:45 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I had intended to study situations like these -- calling with midpairs in EP after a raise -- and my laptop died, with over 100k hands lost.

It feels uber-nitty but I would not be surprised if this is an unprofitable situation. A lot depends on how squeezy the table is behind you (if the shorties are gambling it up, it could be a fold) and how this guy plays OOP postflop.
Playing big pots at small stakes.
 
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fjuanl
Old 11-01-2009, 08:13 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I would fold, set odds aren't there and you still have 6 others behind you.
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baudib
Old 11-01-2009, 08:54 PM #4 (permalink)  
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fjuanl:
don't you think the likelihood of villain holding a monster here gives us set odds? i want to fold based on possible action behind us but I think it is close with a chance to get a huge stack against the chip leader.
Playing big pots at small stakes.
 
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Sprayed
Old 11-01-2009, 08:59 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I'm being a little results because I folded and the board was x99 and like 2 others called pre. I would def call with Ts in this spot. I think that 9s are a little close.
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drmcboy
Old 11-01-2009, 10:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I'd call

if you end up HU you can play your hand really easy vs the nit and should win a decent amount of non set flops.

if lots of people call I'm sure you'll make money just on sets.
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revolvingiris
Old 11-02-2009, 02:25 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I agree with drmc on this one and why don't you have set odds?
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fjuanl
Old 11-02-2009, 04:54 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Sprayed is just short of having 15x the raise amount and if he flats (generally a standard cutoff for set-mining) theres a chance one of the 6 people left will wake up with QQ+ AK and reraise. I don't think you could call 22-66, but 99 is probably ok at second glance since its a decently high pair

My plan (maybe flawed?) would be:

In multiway pots:
- fold an overpair if the nit fires a decent cbet

In heads up pots:
- call flop with overpair or on flops like J27, fold to turn bets
- check it down if the nit gives up on the turn (<<thoughts?)
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baudib
Old 11-02-2009, 05:01 AM #9 (permalink)  
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fjuanl, as I alluded to, I think a nit has an overpair here often enough that we have set odds more often than against normal people.

I can see peeling with some kind of backdoor equity but I think I'd fold on a T22 flop when he fires out 2/3 pot.
Playing big pots at small stakes.
 
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