This was probably the hardest decision I have made in my poker lifetime.
Up to this point in the tournament, I had only shown down 3 hands. AA, QQ before the flop and AKs when I flopped top pair. I had been playing according to something TJ Cloutier once said: "If you never get called, you will end up with all the chips."
I had taken down a few pots and stolen enough blinds to maintain my stack. So, when I raised I expected people to put me on a big pair.
Are you playing to win? Or are you playing to win some money? That's the question you have to ask yourself when making plays like this. I make that call everytime because I play for first, and flopping an open ended straight flush draw is one of the best flops you can hope for with that hand. What other POSSIBLE flop could come that would warrant the raise you made? If you can't call with that then you shouldn't be raising with JTsuited.
This is a good question, however what I have is a J high hand. I figure I am about 50% to win from the flop, as I am putting the Big blind on one of 3 hands- an overpair, which he probably would have reraised pre-flop, a small PP that didn't make a set (I think he would have check-raised with the set, although he may be afraid of draws) or TPGK. This would be ideal, but I think the all in is extreme, as you will probably only be called by better hands, and have committed a lot of chips. Ultimately, I think he has 77, giving him the PP and a straight draw.
Understand also, there were only 4 players. JTs is a very strong hand shorthanded. This combined with my table image makes it more than worthy of a raise. I would actually be happier with top pair right now, as I don't expect either player to be able to beat it.
I am normally a ring game player, and more importantly a limt player. In limit this hand I would raise all the way to river, and I would call automatically in a NL ring game. But, as you stated, I want to win the tournament.
If I fold, I can probably continue to pick up blinds, as people would assume I had AK. I think the fold guarantees me at least 2nd place, based on how the game has gone up to this point.
If I call I think I am in a race. I don't want to be in a race. I want to be ahead, Iwant to be the bettor, not the caller. If I lose the race I am out, I am done. I lost. I am not thinking about payouts, I am thinking "do I want to flip a coin to stay in the tournament"
If I call and win I have almost 100K in chips, and the one player I am worried about (the chip leader) becomes a short stack I have command, and I can pick the spots. He is super agressive and probably the favorite, but I can break him.
lets not forget he also has two overs which have the possibility of being good if they hit.
These are good points that I took into account. AA or KK is proably not the case, I think the raise would have come on the flop. I also don't think I'm against a set, unless the shortstack has it, which I am not worried about. I don't even care if he has me beat, because we would split the pot almost 50/50 I am worried about the big stack.
Yeah but they're not clean outs. The could have AA or KK. Maybe he played a low pp huge and hit the set. Then he can only win with the straight.
The ideal card to come is actually the 7 or Q, giving me the nut straight. A diamond would only give me a J high flush.
'd probably call in that situation hoping for the diamond than landing the overcard because odds are one of them already had a pocket pair or one had an ace high which puts you behind already.
Anything worth betting has me beat. I just have a great draw.
The only hands that have you beat right now are sets, or better flush draws (Axd) And you're only AT MOST a 60/40 dog.
If you wanted to steal blinds you should have raised more like 5xBB
I raised 3x BB because that is what I always raised. I don't want to give away the texture of my hand with the size of my bet. It would be ridiculous to raise 5x BB to steal then underbet with a legitimate hand.
Also, if I get a big reraise, I am not pot committed and can get off my hand pretty easily.
I'll post what happened tomorrow.