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taipan168
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03-12-2010, 12:41 PM
Post subject: Final 4 of $12/180: 55 in the BB
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#1 (permalink)
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,441
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Opp's stats were something like 27/13 up to this point. Since he got his big stack he had been using it, but had folded to shove overs. Shove over here or fold?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 3000/6000 Blinds 600 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button (t61457)
SB (t44858)
Hero (BB) (t65453)
UTG (t98232)
Hero's M: 5.74
Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 , 5
UTG bets t18000, 2 folds, Hero ????
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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What are the SB and button doing? Are they shoving at all?
without knowing that, I'd ship it, but my ICM calcs are whack.
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Penneywize
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 886
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Yeah. I feel your stack is too big for villain to be herocalling light. If we're in his shoes, our open range is probably top 15%, calling all-in that big would be top 5%?
Are these ranges too narrow -- would we open with 20%, call with more than 5? -- I get we're 4 handed..
I'm at work now so I can't run a stove or do an EV calculation but I'll revisit this later hopefully. It would be good if I can get some opinions on opening and calling ranges so I can run thru the exercise correctly. After that, maybe we can work on the ICM?
I feel like ICM considerations would dominate our decision-making here...
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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stack sizes seem better for stop and go
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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Do stop and goes even work anymore?
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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Can you post some HHs of people calling PSBs with air?
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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yeah, but it'd be embarrassing to me 
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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ha!
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Shoving pre seems clearly good, i bet you get a fold 20% of the time or more which is just getting away with murder.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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if he folds pre he's playing badly, but, people do often play bad. I guess it's sort of OK if no one is playing back, but if you have to fold to a shove open shove or open fold seem better.
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revolvingiris
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,139
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This is a pretty interesting spot.
Typically, I wouldn't imagine villain folding to your shove that often. Although its interesting he raised 3x vs just open shoving. This play alone makes me think he is capable of folding and based on your position at the table there wont be too many opportunities to steal chips. I'd risk it for the reasons #2 pointed out.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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How are you guys comparing FE on the flop vs pre flop? I think 20% is way too high but even if it's correct that doesn't make it better.
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revolvingiris
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,139
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I was more or less responding directly to taipan's question.
As far as stop'n'go vs just shoving over. I dont really know which one would be better. Villain obv made an exploitable mistake so I would guess either option is fine.
When doing the math I ran into an issue on how to account for when villain folds pf. Example:
Assuming when villain hits on flop he never loses when he does AND doesnt already have a PP higher than 55.
A) Villain hits flop 33% of the time which means we take down the pot 66% of the time on the flop for a net of 19.4k (pot * 66%).
B) If villain folds pf then 20% * pot = 5800 for net.
Which is fine but we have to run ICM pf and then take B into account (which is where I got lost). I plugged this into SnGWiz which stated if villain will fold 20% then this is a shove pf but that doesn't mean its most optimal, certainly profitable though.
Note: We would also have to run ICM for stop'n'go but I dont really know how to do that either.
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