call or fold to river bet?

He's slowplaying you - AT or AA - in fact for all we know he could have 89. You didn't bite on the turn so he says screw it, and pushes.

You know I'm an advocate of aggressive/risky plays, but you better be purty damn sure about your read here if you are gonna call since u beat only a really poor bluff here. Even I fold this one.

And yes I am anyone.

chardrian - i understand exactly what you're saying, but wouldnt you think he'd bet a callable amount with a hand that good? doesn't the ai seem strange?

I think your flop bet was too weak, < 1/2 pot.

An aggressive player called your PFR, check-called you on the flop, and checked the turn.

If your read is good (he doesn't not have a single A or T), then he has to have:
AA
KK
TT!
77
89

All of which beat you.

Something broadway gutshot that he shouldn't have called the flop with, but your bet was too weak to fold to.

Not sure he wouldn't slow play two pair on the flop here, since your re-raise PF clearly indicates you aren't playing 2 hearts.

Or a busted flush draw. Would an agressive player check-call a weak bet and check again with a flush draw? With a busted gutshot?

His river bet isn't even an overbet... there is >70K in the pot at this point, so it's a legit value bet.

Normally, he wouldn't push a monster on the river... but his previous play set this up.

I just realized that the river completes the nut straight draw for 89, which was open-ended on the flop.

I think the probability that he slow played a monster + hit straight draw + your read is wrong and he has a T or A > the chance he's bluffing. Of course, you are getting 2:1 odds...

I think I would fold, because in the end, you are calling of 85% of your stack with 2nd pair on a draw heavy board. It's probably close to even though.

I think the guy has an ace (or better) more than he has rags for a bluff, solely on gut instinct. The play just looks like he is either slowplaying a monster or playing a weak ace.

Originally Posted by konahead

chardrian - i understand exactly what you're saying, but wouldnt you think he'd bet a callable amount with a hand that good? doesn't the ai seem strange?

I think that's what you would do - but don't make the mistake (which I still find myself making) of putting yourself in his shoes and basing your play on what you would do. Instead you need to figure out what he would do here.

You said he was loose and agressive and overbetting. Guys who overbet don't just overbet bluffs - they overbet monsters too. The whole point of that style of play is to catch a monster and get someone to play back at ya. I often find this style of play to aggravate me the most and one of my leaks is letting my ego get involved and trying to make that "great" call to show them I can't be bullied. But this leads right into their style of play.

I'm just looking at this one hand. He minraised to start (from an aggressive overbetter that smells super strong to me). He then check-called the flop - another stench of super strength from a guy who normally overbets. You show weakness on the turn and he pounces on the river. So yeah, he might be making a move here with nothing, but he also might have something. In the end, how you or I would play a monster (or any A here) does not matter - what matters is whether or not this guy would play a monster like that. And I think he just might.

my gut told me he had JJ or 99 - but you're right, I did bet the flop weak cuz I wasnt sure he didnt have an ace and was looking for a reraise to tell me to get out. When he didnt reraise and the turn was a ten and he checked, I didnt figure him for a ten, which was stupid of me since i was the aggressor. I should have hit the turn hard but like I said, was looking to check it down. Then his river bet was ai whereas I would have bet a little less (30K-35K) to ensure a call if I had a monster. I guess, like you said, chardrian, it's a case of expecting your opponent to bet like you would under the same circumstances ( - if I had trip tens I would have checked the turn like he did, but bet less on the river to ensure a call...). It looked like a blatant pot steal move to me, but stupid to risk my entire tourney on that. You're very correct.
Turned out he had 89o - still can't believe I called.... guess you get tired after 5 hours... still pissed at myself but I'll remember it and play it differently next time. That's what's so great about this forum - helps you learn not to be an idiot. I'll get 1st next time (have 2 second places in last 5 attempts.)

So I should have bet the flop closer to pot-size with the ace out there? How would you guys have played this, from flop to finish? Queens are so hard to play with an ace or king on the flop...

Originally Posted by konahead

So I should have bet the flop closer to pot-size with the ace out there? How would you guys have played this, from flop to finish? Queens are so hard to play with an ace or king on the flop...

What's your normal bet on a flop with an A when you have an A? If you are going to bet, bet as you normally would. If I was gonna bet there I probably woulda made it 25k (I'm trying to relearn that a check there is not so horrible though).

You're right - if I had an ace, I would have bet a little more than 1/2 the pot - around 25K. I'd like to blame this on a shitty river card but it boils down to bad play by me. I hate it when you guys are right... (j/k)

Originally Posted by konahead

I hate it when you guys are right... (j/k)

Don't worry it doesn't happen too often.

I'm also much better at giving advice than I am at applying it.

I know what you mean. As I was posting this and re-reading the hand history, it was obvious to me that I should have bet differently and folded on the river, and I'd tell any poster to do the same. But in the heat of battle, I thought I had him pegged (although even as I hit the call button at the last second, my brain was screaming fold, fold, you idiot...)

I'm still kicking myself - I can't even take my own advice - lol