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Bubble shove...is this reasonable?
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Raoni_Poker
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06-29-2009, 11:40 PM
Post subject: Bubble shove...is this reasonable?
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 265
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Hi, guys,
This hand was extracted from a 1.20 SG. Man, those games are getting hard to beat. Imagine the blinds up to 400 and still 6 players playing. It feels like a lottery.
This was a bubble shove. A one point I was with less than 2 BBs. After that, I won 2 all ins and would get ITM (probabaly if I did not shove this). The guy on my right has no idea whatsoever of push/fold mode...he limped in with hands like 55, AJs when the blinds were quite high. The guy on my left, was not a solid player...he called one of my all ins with 89 (I had A8 or something) but after that he was not calling anymore (just raising unopened pots sometimes).
The players were all cautious when they saw the flop (lots of checks and min bets), but they would call with A8+, 22+ (I got two calls to recover my money). I wonder if this is a proper shove, since we are on the bubble, I'm the first to bet, my hand is not that good and the BB has good odds to call (even though I know he did not consider this).
I did some ICM calculations and, according to the results, I should shove 22.5% (22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s). However, shoving A5o is pretty on the bottom side of this range. Is it a marginal shove?
No-Limit Hold'em, $600.00 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($2340)
Hero (UTG) ($2120)
Button ($7805)
SB ($2735)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5 , A
Hero bets $2120 (All-In), 2 folds, BB calls $1520
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Sprayed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: GO BUCKS!
Posts: 3,057
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I don't think that you are looking at the calling ranges of your opponents when you calculate your numbers. I would think that in a $1.20 these guys would be fairly loose. I think you need a tighter range.
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Raoni_Poker
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 265
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I agree with you. Interestingly, according to the ICM calculator, the BB should call me about 40% of the time. Whats the point of shoving 20% to be called by 40%?
Anyway, it is still a complicated spot. The blinds are 600 and I'm the BB in the next hand. My stack would be around 1500...very short...less fold equity. I would need a better hand at least on the next 3 hands to survive.
I think is a marginal shove because the some of the other opponents are also in a complicated spot (less than me). If I waited a bit, they could get in trouble (as I did) or I could get a better hand.
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2ndline.4thstreet
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 120
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I don't hate the shove. I see too many guys waiting for the best spot possible to shove, but by the time they get there a double up still leaves them short. I say get it in even in this marginal spot.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sprayed
I don't think that you are looking at the calling ranges of your opponents when you calculate your numbers. I would think that in a $1.20 these guys would be fairly loose. I think you need a tighter range.
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this is probably true, but it's also true ICM can't account for us being next to play the blinds.
This is 40%:
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J8o+,T9o
IMO there is no way you get called nearly this wide
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DaGrinch
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Whoville
Posts: 26
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To answer your post ... yeah I think it is reasonable 4 handed. You are losing half your stack in the next two hands anyhow. Just the nature of the beast.
Not sure what site you are on, but if it is PokerStars you might want to look at the $1.15 double or nothings. It is a pretty low risk way to sloooooowly build up the bankroll. Did I mention slow?
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Sprayed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: GO BUCKS!
Posts: 3,057
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sprayed
I don't think that you are looking at the calling ranges of your opponents when you calculate your numbers. I would think that in a $1.20 these guys would be fairly loose. I think you need a tighter range.
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this is probably true, but it's also true ICM can't account for us being next to play the blinds.
This is 40%:
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J8o+,T9o
IMO there is no way you get called nearly this wide |
Agreed. I don't hate a shove and I would probably shove in this spot. If they are calling with 20% or less it is a shove. Anything more and it's a fold. Meh, this is marginal at best.
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