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Brutal Bubble Decision - 2014 PCA $100k Super High Roller (Video)

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  1. #1

    Default Brutal Bubble Decision - 2014 PCA $100k Super High Roller (Video)

    Action from 2014 PCA $100k Super High Roller event. Hand involved Paul Newey, Mike McDonald and Fabian Quoss.

    Commentary & hand start at 43:45 in video. 8th Place cashes but 9th Place gets nothing. How would you play it?

  2. #2
    Painful. I think I throw my chips in with the KQ. While I can see the merit in folding and letting the others run at Newman, if Newman wins the pot then we're even more desperate, and we'll find ourselves all in with junk, like Newman is now. So take the chance now while we have a decent hand.

    If we had 6 or 7 big blinds, well then I'd probably just let it go, thinking I'm very likely to finish 8th if I fold. I'm not comfortable enough that folding is gonna be a near guaranteed cash here though.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    Newey doesn't have a choice. I end up calling it off if I'm Timex on the basis Newey is getting it in with 100% range and we give ourselves a good chance of laddering up to 5th if we win the hand. With ante at 10k, we can't exactly wait for aces too.

    Quoss and the sb situation is interesting. Quoss' play is obviously correct, but if this was a local $50 tournament at a casino or small stakes online, Quoss would check and both would check down often to guarantee the cash. I wonder if this was the sb's original plan, but I doubt it at this level.
  4. #4
    Isn't newey in bb/sb next two hands? Even if he wins that should have him all in again right? He should certainly fold 96 utg thou...
  5. #5
    Yeah I think I fold the 96 and just take whatever's on my blind. There's always the hope that our friend here picks up a hand and goes bust. Not sure what he's thinking.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    I would imagine that when you play a tour like that you have the bankroll to go out on the bubble and not cash. So I would play that hand anytime there
    The Time To Act Is Now...
  7. #7
    Renton's Avatar
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    Lol all in with 96o utg when you have a significant chance to make the bubble if you fold.
  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
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    KQo call seems good though because it increases the chances that utg loses at showdown and thus bubbles.
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    Lol all in with 96o utg when you have a significant chance to make the bubble if you fold.
    I just get my half a bb in here as I'm going to next hand anyway on the bb, but maybe this isn't as clear as I first thought. My thinking is that it's unlikely anybody else is going bust this hand given I've only got half a bb (and maybe Timex even folds KQ?), meaning we realistically end up HU vs Quoss' ATC when jamming utg. That said, if we fold and win the next hand, we almost certainly cash given antes and blinds and the stacks of the other players.
  10. #10
    96 seems awful, KQ i think has to be a fold too.

    They must have made some pretty big mistakes to get to that point though.
  11. #11

    Default Don't do it Timex!!!

    Newman pretty much had no choice there with his chip stack, especially being utg, however in my opinion I think McDonald actually makes a huge mistake. even though he will be well ahead of Newmans shove with 3bb UTG, there is a high probability that he will get called in 1 spot (BB , 90%+ of the time) and there is also the possibility of being called by the SB with a wide range of hands, both scenarios would suggest to fold KQ, if Newman loses McDonald would at least min cash (if he only bought in once). Even if Newman wins the hand he is most likely all in the next hand (his BB) or on his SB. At this point it is about cashing right especially if only 8 get paid.
    Not by any means suggesting he made a mistake with KQ (because McDonald/ Timex) is a beast, that's just how I would have approached it.
  12. #12
    It's a very tough call for KQ, but I'm glad Timex did it from a purely results-based perspective. If I'm in a similar situation and participating in an MTT that's for a significant amount of my bankroll, I believe I fold & pray, but that's not a mathematical analysis. At micro-limit MTTs I'd probably Snap it with KQ there.
  13. #13
    cali61's Avatar
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    Good Video post Dhub it took me last night and 2 day 2 finish watching This had 4 am Wakeup . This gave some very good pointers Like watching the more experienced plyers and their awareness of the bubble and Tight Play.

    Ofc Dawgs don't know much and are pretty much dumb when it comes 2 poker,But if i am Mike 1st i should know Newey is making a Desperation
    Bet Blind wise ofc he could have had a Legit hand # 2 His Allin Pushes me or Him into 3 larger Stacks that can call the Allin without Blinking

    KQ an undetermined hand with 3 callers Behind me i would get out of there way , and hope Dewey goes out and wait on better hand or an HU. It has been my experience when i go in against 2 or more players on the bubble ,Both usaually end up whipping me. And that Shak is 1 Risky dude

    OOWWOOooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!
  14. #14
    Here's the conclusion of the 2014 PCA $100k Super High Roller for those who want to see how the final table played out.

  15. #15
    I can see merit in both actions, but I think I would personally make the same decision if it was high stakes or micro stakes. Im trying to work on making good decisions (which sometimes varies if u ask different players) and not be results orientated.
  16. #16
    bubble boy never really worries me, u cant hold back u got to get them in as soon as u can . if u play big buyins its the same as any poker game u got to play to win would be good enough for me to get my chips in /. 96 ifold nd hope
    .

    9
  17. #17
    Hi guys,

    I've asked Mike McDonald to call in for an interview this Thursday, July 31 to answer questions from FTR forum members. I'll be sure to ask him about the hand being discussed in this thread, but would also like to get more questions from our members.

    I should have about 10 minutes to interview him, so please post any questions you have for Mike McDonald in the following thread:

    Submit Questions for Mike "Timex" McDonald Interview
  18. #18
    cali61's Avatar
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    Thxz 4 the conclusion of the Pca Dhub.I don't believe Vannessa Made a good decision 2 fire an allin bet with the K9 just after taking a Big hit from Fabian. I see this all 2 manytimes from Players who take big hits Dwindling their Stacks & immediately they go allin the very next hand.

    Rather Than take a hand or 2 too collect themselves and regain some perspective on the game and what they are trying 2 accomplish.

    I call these immeadiate bets = ( Angry Bets ) not tought put in this sort of bet. That was great 2 watch
  19. #19
    Crazy hand!

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