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AQo, Q high flop, flush gets there on turn ($27)

  
 
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taipan168
Old 11-17-2009, 08:10 PM     Post subject: AQo, Q high flop, flush gets there on turn ($27) #1 (permalink)  
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Normally I would fold this very fast preflop, but opp is a special kind of bad player from a previous tourney - stats 92/45 and has no regard for position so I'm way ahead of his range here with AQo.

What's your turn move?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t1370)
MP2 (t2670)
MP3 (t1460)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1040)
SB (t990)
Hero (BB) (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)

Hero's M: 33.33

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
2 folds, MP1 bets t180, 5 folds, Hero calls t150

Flop: (t375) 9, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t90, Hero raises to t450, MP1 calls t360

Turn: (t1275) 2 (2 players)
Hero ????
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Kijjo
Old 11-17-2009, 08:55 PM #2 (permalink)  
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6xbb raise pre? Is that normal for him? 92/45 is pretty ridiculous
I'm going to try to respond since no one else has yet.
#1 I still want to put pressure on him by making him to commit more to the pot - I'm not giving him credit for an overpair or a flush.
#2 I'm not crazy about 2 check raises back to back.
#3 The pot's getting too big to lay down - you've got 900 with a 1275 pot.
I'm not tickled with putting my whole tourney on the line with tptk this early on, but at this point in the hand against this opponent I think I'm shoving.
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RockyMoose
Old 11-17-2009, 08:58 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Yuck. If you check the turn, you are announcing "I'm afraid of the flush", and your flop raise says you don't have it anyway. Villain should shove.

If you bet, anything worth betting is pot-committing you, and you might be drawing dead.

Can we get a do-over on this hand?
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Alpine021
Old 11-17-2009, 11:40 PM #4 (permalink)  
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92/45? Seriously?

I wouldn't be putting this hand down ever. I'd be shoving and if he's got the flush or Q9 then so be it. Ridiculous stats! I coulldn't get those stats if I tried!
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losttrem
Old 11-18-2009, 03:56 AM #5 (permalink)  
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To be honest I actually like a check/call here. While a check announces that you are afraid of the flush, that is not necessarily a bad thing. We want to get the spewy player to be as spewy as we can get him. I would seriously consider to go for check/call here and on the river as well and induce him to bluff off his stack. If he checks the turn behind I'd push any river that doesnt bring a fourth spade because this could mean he accidentally beats you. In the event that third spade actually did make him a flush I'd mark it down as a cooler.
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Kijjo
Old 11-18-2009, 08:02 PM #6 (permalink)  
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by going for the check call you are leaving yourself a roughly 1 in 4 chance he catches a 4th spade and then you do a serious facepalm if he flips over one spade. at least by pushing you're more likely to be making him make a mistake to continue.
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losttrem
Old 11-18-2009, 11:58 PM #7 (permalink)  
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If we shove the turn we run the risk of folding out all the hands we have crushed and get him to call only with the hands he has us crushed with. Against opponents like that I always try to induce a bluff because that allows him to stack off drawing super thin. Even if he checks behind and a fourth spade falls on the river that still doesnt mean he is holding a spade and we're beat.
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drmcboy
Old 11-19-2009, 07:24 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I might check again except that he bet 90 on the flop so he may bet 150 now or something dumb, so I would just shove.
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DrStrangeShove
Old 11-20-2009, 08:46 AM #9 (permalink)  
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yeah, no doubt, dumb flop bet from this guy. It sceams "please let me see another card." I would have been more likely to put out a 3x raise oppose to the 5x because, unfortunately, its difficult to create fold equity with this type of player. With his dumb flop bet, its likely he hit the flush.

At this point I would be more inclined to play passively on turn and river. I would be folding to any line of betting that would significantly damage my stack any further. With 30bb remaining, you still have time to recover.
I finally figured out my problem, my logic is flawed.
 
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taipan168
Old 11-20-2009, 08:55 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrStrangeShove
At this point I would be more inclined to play passively on turn and river. I would be folding to any line of betting that would significantly damage my stack any further. With 30bb remaining, you still have time to recover.
Sure, we have 30x BB remaining but we also have almost half our stack in the pot already, we still have TPTK and there's no guarantee that he has the flush.
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Nakamura
Old 11-20-2009, 09:43 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 What makes me nervous in these spots is your flop line essentially announces you have a hand and are prepared to stack off with it. If he is on a FD he is calling 360 chips for a shot at a total pot of 2885. So his implied odds are 2885:360 or about 8:1. There is surely a little bit of uncertainty in those implied odds as he can't be sure you aren't raising the flop with a set and he would be stacked if the flush come out and the board paired too. He also can't be sure you don't have AQ and will fold to serious pressure when the Ks comes out. Anyway, so let's assume his implied odds are a more modest 6:1, since he isn't going to stack you everytime.

The odds of a flush card hitting 9 out of 47 cards or 5.2:1. Since his implied odds are greater than the odds of hitting the flush on the turn he should call if he has the FD.

I'm not sure this impacts at all on how Hero should play though, since a FD is only part of his range. You are essentially giving him the implied to stack you but compensating by getting him to calling with hands like QJ or KQ.
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DrStrangeShove
Old 11-20-2009, 09:50 AM #12 (permalink)  
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yeah, not saying I would run from this pot. But would probably check turn. Normally against a solid player, a raise-check would be a poor play. But with this guy, I would be curious to know how he would respond to a check. It seems that you could gather a lot of information from any bet he puts forth from this point forward.

Another possiblilty is that he caught a set. I only would think FD or set mainly because wide range players seem to overplay small pairs and suited cards pre flop. These players are also likely to bet small, as this one did, when on a set. Not paying attention to a somewhat wet board. With this as my read, I would be likely to play it passively, but by no means throw it away if I were to sense any weakness on later streets.
I finally figured out my problem, my logic is flawed.
 
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