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taipan168
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10-15-2009, 10:28 AM
Post subject: AQ in the BB on the bubble, LAGG shoves ($27)
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#1 (permalink)
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,441
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Opp's stats were something like 27/22 up to this point. I didn't have any more specific reads than this but from memory he was shoving quite a lot.
I did run this in Wiz but I won't post the results just yet. What would you do in game?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t5655)
Hero (BB) (t2695)
UTG (t2490)
Button (t2660)
Hero's M: 6.74
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q , A
1 fold, Button bets t2635 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ????
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GatorJH
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
Posts: 3,179
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from looking at his stats and knowing that he has started shoving pretty wide here it "appears" that he is aware of fold equity and is therefore a somewhat decent player so I would call here but this is at the VERY bottom of my calling range.
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Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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Xenq
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Two Pair
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 33
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Surely it's a fold? Both have 13BB, even if you're 60/40 or better do you really want to risk it? I'll run it in Wiz though.
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Extremophile
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Stackton
Posts: 451
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What is the prize distribution Tai? It looks like a 1-table SNG and I fold. Can you comment a bit on the stats? Since it is 4-handed, his stats must be different than they were in the beginning.
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linaker
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 70
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You are probably 60 - 40 or better and the pot odds are a bit better than 1:1, so its an easy cash game/miles from the money call, but the spanner in the works is ICM. My instinct is to call, but I would not like doing so much and I'd definitely fold AJ in this spot.
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,441
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Extremophile
What is the prize distribution Tai? It looks like a 1-table SNG and I fold. Can you comment a bit on the stats? Since it is 4-handed, his stats must be different than they were in the beginning.
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Payout structure is the standard 1-table SNG 50/30/20. Can't really comment any more on the stats since I was playing 3 other tables at the time, but I do remember he had been shoving quite a bit (I can't tell you how often) since it reached 5-handed.
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cag8f
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 102
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My thoughts are that calling is correct, since his stats indicate he's shoving with a lot of hands we dominate (Ax, KQ). Tell us what SNG Wiz said please.
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cag8f
My thoughts are that calling is correct, since his stats indicate he's shoving with a lot of hands we dominate (Ax, KQ). Tell us what SNG Wiz said please. |
From memory it said that calling was +EV provided that he's shoving at least 20% of hands, which I think he would be. The other relevant fact is that there wasn't a small stack around.
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Lance
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 210
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Time for WIz. Even if SB pushes 100% hands, it is -EV to call.
More interesting is if the level of the blinds is 200/400/25.
You can call if you think that SB pushes wider than best 35% hands.
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe" (Albert Einstein)
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DetroitHusling101
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Just runnin...
Posts: 1,385
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^^^^
the BTN is shoving. And calling here is certainly +EV as far as i know. If he was in fact shoving any two (the btn that is) we can prob call all types of grossly wide , but putting him on ATC isn't really realistic with the limited reads provided.
It's been prob a year since i played a 9 man so im likely rusty with ICM but i for sure snap this
i think AJo/A10s is closer. Im calling for sure 88+ AJs+ AQo+
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RockyMoose
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 196
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I insta-fold here. Standard bubble play, right? Frankly, I probably need KK, AA to call. In real life, I would have a hard time folding QQ, AK.
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RockyMoose
I insta-fold here. Standard bubble play, right? Frankly, I probably need KK, AA to call. In real life, I would have a hard time folding QQ, AK.
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I don't think it's an instafold at all, it would be if there was a short stack around, so I think it's very dependent on Button's shove range.
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Lance
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 210
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lance
Time for WIz. Even if SB pushes 100% hands, it is -EV to call.
More interesting is if the level of the blinds is 200/400/25.
You can call if you think that SB pushes wider than best 35% hands.
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Huh, i reversed stacks between SB and button..
Nevertheless, if villain has 15% pushing range, you can call here with TT+, AKo
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe" (Albert Einstein)
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