Another hand to play together - This one is BvB

Let's lead out with 1/2 the pot. I feel we need to make a Cbet and hopefully he has hit the 9 or has JT.

Xxxxx

500 to go on the flop.

I'd go $400; not much he shoves over with that we beat so I'm thinking we fold if he shoves.

I agree with 3xBB pre. I'd pot bet the flop and call a shove. I don't put him on KQ or better with the preflop call. Q9 or Q3 is possible, but i think many hands shove the pot bet with a 9 or similar, assuming the continuation bet hasn't hit top pair.

And I'm liking this format of analysing hands a betting round at a time

Any reads on the guy?

Anyway, not many better flops for us could've come and we c-bet/ value bet approx. 400. If he pushes it would be easier to interpret that with the reads Without the reads fold, because you still have enough chips and the fact that he called you pre-flop raise indicates he has something, and the push indicates it connected with the flop. Or that he thinks you're full of it and you're trying to steal the pot. Beauties of playing OOP

If he just calls your c-bet, without the reads, I check and I'm ready to fold to any bet. The reasoning is that any further bet commits you to the pot and it commits you with the TPGK. Is your opponent someone who's willing to put his tournament life on the line with TPNK, or middle pair (reads? ). I play 5,5$ and 11$ and even there there's not much of them willing to do that.

Basically, after he calls your pre-flop raise and you make the c-bet you have to play poker with respect to the tournament structure

OK. Put this another way, what would you do if you was in his position with your cards on the end of a Cbet? Personally, I'd shove. And I don't like the idea that someone with exactly the same hand as me is going to push me off the hand. Hence my decision above.

OK, so we lead out for $500 and villain flat calls.

As for a read, villain is your standard TAGG running 15/10/0.6 though 59 hands.

Now what?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $30+$3 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1670)
MP (t3705)
Button (t2595)
Hero (SB) (t2540)
BB (t2990)

Hero's M: 11.29

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, J
3 folds, Hero bets t375, BB calls t225

Flop: (t750) Q, 3, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t500, BB calls t500

Turn: (t1750) 8 (2 players)
Hero ????

$500 on that board seems high to me

i like $350 -$400(baudib thinking for me)

pre if you are coming in go $450

what are your stats/image? <-- i think this is a huge factor

after they call 500 on the flop and the pot 1750
i shit my pants

depending on how drunk either shove or c/f
my state right now says c/f

With just a pot-sized bet left, and his flat on the flop not really indicating strength, I ship it on the turn. I doubt he flats with a better kicker, and we picked up a few more outs if he had us.

Board: 9d 8d Qc 3s
Dead:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.281% 63.58% 03.70% 2294 133.50 { QhJs }
Hand 1: 32.719% 29.02% 03.70% 1047 133.50 { JJ-77, 33, AQs+, A9s, KJs+, QTs+, AQo+, A9o, KJo, QJo }

I'm shoving this on the turn, there's no reason to believe that the 8 helped him (unless he has exactly JT or 88 and a 15/10/0.6 probably won't limp and call a raise with either of those hands) and I still think he calls with some hands we beat.

I'd bet less than I raised PF on the flop and never fold

how close is just jamming PF?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how close is just jamming PF?

Bit of an overbet for me with 17x BB

to me with the 500 bet u have made ur mind up and blank on the turn probs means shuv and he knows it. im a little scared with the flat call from a tight player, is somethin 33 99 out of the question?

&&&& c/f for me after da turn

Without doubt shove the turn 100% of the time. Once the big blind hits 150, assuming there are 5 players or less, it seems to me the most aggressive player will be ITM far more often than anyone else.

Originally Posted by flomo

what are your stats/image? <-- i think this is a huge factor

I am TAGGISH as well and would venture to guess that my stats are similar to villain's

Have you been stealing his blinds lately? How did he react?

As flomo said, when 15/10 flat-calls on that flop, after he called the raise I do the same thing in my pants because that bet more often than not means that he's ready to go all the way with his hand. We are beating poorly played AK (very unlikely), TT, JJ (not likely, we have one) - with these three hands he would've reraised, 77 a middle (A9)/low pair and a bluff. We are way behind sets, AA, KK, Q9, AQ, KQ. Of course, we split with the same hand. So, a lot of hands we are behind and just a few we are ahead --> c/f and wait for the better spot. Especially since he's 0,6 post flop, a call of your pot-bet on the river from such a player is very often the nuts on that board.

I agree with the idea that aggression wins, but I don't think blind aggression wins and push here on the turn would be exactly that if I got his range right.

So, what did he have?

BTW, can those people suggesting a push here pls. explain what's the motivation behind the push? I.e. is it a value bet, is it a bluff and we are trying to push our opponent of his hand, something else?

As you can see I'm a nit, even more 60 hands into the SNg, so I'd like to understand the reasoning and maybe incorporate it into my play.

Originally Posted by perica

BTW, can those people suggesting a push here pls. explain what's the motivation behind the push? I.e. is it a value bet, is it a bluff and we are trying to push our opponent of his hand, something else?

As you can see I'm a nit, even more 60 hands into the SNg, so I'd like to understand the reasoning and maybe incorporate it into my play.

People are saying to push the turn because the pot is roughly the same size as each players stack. I would believe that shove would be a value bet. You have TP with a draw on the turn.

If the turn didn't improve your hand, I would try to get to showdown cheaply. Also, since you're oop, I would make it 3x pre. I wouldn't want to make it that easy for them to call and then try to play oop. But whatever.

Originally Posted by perica

Have you been stealing his blinds lately? How did he react?

As flomo said, when 15/10 flat-calls on that flop, after he called the raise I do the same thing in my pants because that bet more often than not means that he's ready to go all the way with his hand. We are beating poorly played AK (very unlikely), TT, JJ (not likely, we have one) - with these three hands he would've reraised, 77 a middle (A9)/low pair and a bluff. We are way behind sets, AA, KK, Q9, AQ, KQ. Of course, we split with the same hand. So, a lot of hands we are behind and just a few we are ahead --> c/f and wait for the better spot. Especially since he's 0,6 post flop, a call of your pot-bet on the river from such a player is very often the nuts on that board.

I agree with the idea that aggression wins, but I don't think blind aggression wins and push here on the turn would be exactly that if I got his range right.

So, what did he have?

That's not a range, it's a list of hands that beat us. How do you justify saying he can't have AK or JJ because those would have reraised preflop, but he could have QQ-AA?

OK, The biggest problem with this hand is that we are OOP against a TAGGISH opponent who called a raise pre-flop and then called a flop bet on a fairly dry (due to no flush draw) board. Personally I put his range here at something like - QQ-66,33,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o.

If that range is accurate we were a 67.5% favorite on the flop, but have now dropped down to a 49% coinflip on the turn. So the next question becomes, what is the best way to proceed?

If we bet which hands that are beating us would fold and which hands that we are beating would call? Would he call with his entire range? Unless he has two diamonds in his hand he probably folds his straight draws and would most likely fold his lower PP's if we fire a second barrel.

On the other hand, if we check, what hands check behind and what hands bet? Would he semi-bluff his draws or weaker pairs? Would he continue to slow play his sets?

I will post the turn actions later this afternoon, but would like to get some comments on the above two questions as I think those answers are the keys to this hand.

Would pp 9-J really of called the preflop bet? I think those hands would have raised you. Especially as you are the SB and therefore more often than not are trying to steel (based on blind size & bet size). SO I think you can discount them from your calculations.

Of course he could have those hands, but he could have anything, he may have called preflop by accident with a missclick. So I feel we can discard those hands. I also think he would have raised with KQ, so I am inclined to remove that hand from any calculations too.

I also think pp 6,7,& 8 would have folded to the flop bet, 2 overs, why would you call? Maybe you could justify a push if you didn't believe the flop bet, but a call would be odd.

So for me that leaves QQ for pocket pairs, as I think AA or KK would have raised the flop.

I agree with the non pp range though. Although I think you can add Q9s, Q9o, QTs QTo, J9s, J9o in there as well. And this makes us a 52% favourite. So once you include chips in the middle, I think this is a shove.

WIll be back after dinner with thoughts on what calls that you beat and what folds that had you beat.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how close is just jamming PF?

Overkill without antes. I'm not sure why we expect this guy to be playing back at us that light anyway so why do we need to open shove to take the play away from him?

Anyway you should bet 400 on the flop and never fold. Just shove the turn.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

OK, The biggest problem with this hand is that we are OOP against a TAGGISH opponent who called a raise pre-flop and then called a flop bet on a fairly dry (due to no flush draw) board. Personally I put his range here at something like - QQ-66,33,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o.

If that range is accurate we were a 67.5% favorite on the flop, but have now dropped down to a 49% coinflip on the turn. So the next question becomes, what is the best way to proceed?

If we bet which hands that are beating us would fold and which hands that we are beating would call? Would he call with his entire range? Unless he has two diamonds in his hand he probably folds his straight draws and would most likely fold his lower PP's if we fire a second barrel.

On the other hand, if we check, what hands check behind and what hands bet? Would he semi-bluff his draws or weaker pairs? Would he continue to slow play his sets?

I will post the turn actions later this afternoon, but would like to get some comments on the above two questions as I think those answers are the keys to this hand.

1. He's TAGgish, not a nit. TAGs can show up with less-than-premium hands in BvB. I don't know that 98 is in his range, but if it is, so is J9, K9, Q9 and certainly A9.
2. Frankly, I don't think stats over 59 hands is really a read. It doesn't tell us enough about his postflop tendencies to answer your questions, imo.
3. You say you're probably running about the same, so what hands would you call with preflop and then flat on the flop? You're here with QJo, surely he can call in position with similar or worse hands.
The flat on the flop leads me to believe his range comprises mostly hands that we're beating.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

OK, The biggest problem with this hand is that we are OOP against a TAGGISH opponent who called a raise pre-flop and then called a flop bet on a fairly dry (due to no flush draw) board. Personally I put his range here at something like - QQ-66,33,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o.

If that range is accurate we were a 67.5% favorite on the flop, but have now dropped down to a 49% coinflip on the turn. So the next question becomes, what is the best way to proceed?

If we bet which hands that are beating us would fold and which hands that we are beating would call? Would he call with his entire range? Unless he has two diamonds in his hand he probably folds his straight draws and would most likely fold his lower PP's if we fire a second barrel.

On the other hand, if we check, what hands check behind and what hands bet? Would he semi-bluff his draws or weaker pairs? Would he continue to slow play his sets?

I will post the turn actions later this afternoon, but would like to get some comments on the above two questions as I think those answers are the keys to this hand.

1. He's TAGgish, not a nit. TAGs can show up with less-than-premium hands in BvB. I don't know that 98 is in his range, but if it is, so is J9, K9, Q9 and certainly A9.
2. Frankly, I don't think stats over 59 hands is really a read. It doesn't tell us enough about his postflop tendencies to answer your questions, imo.
3. You say you're probably running about the same, so what hands would you call with preflop and then flat on the flop? You're here with QJo, surely he can call in position with similar or worse hands.
The flat on the flop leads me to believe his range comprises mostly hands that we're beating.