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AKss Deep ITM vs big stack

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  1. #1

    Default AKss Deep ITM vs big stack

    I'm deep ITM in a 300+person MTT on 888.com with a top 5 chip position. There are 33 players left.

    Only 1 stack (BTN) is bigger than me and I've been at the table with him for 45 minutes. He has been very tight. Open folded a lot and allowed me to bully the table on the bubble and amass my stack. He has folded to aggression from the button and SB the last 5 orbits. He got his stack limp calling AQo pre flop, hitting Q and calling down and aggressively played KQ. The other player in the hand below has <10BBs and has already shoved A9o from the highjack.

    Level is (6000/3000/300)

    UTG 66198
    UTG+1 101963
    MP1 120652
    HJ 54605
    CO 55756
    BTN 178489
    SB 110030
    Hero (BB) 160460

    Dealt to Hero A K
    All players post Ante, 3 folds, HJ raises 54605 (all in), 1 fold, BTN raises to 109210, 1 fold, Hero?

    Normally I'm not folding this hand with the blinds like this at this stage of an MTT, but Big stack has been so tight and I have been allowed to bully the table and think I can continue to after this hand. I won't say what I did, but I really didn't (and still don't) know what the correct play was. Is this a super standard fold (or even a snap shove (no point in calling))?
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  2. #2
    definitely all-in
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
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  3. #3
    Shotglass's Avatar
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  4. #4
    chardrian's Avatar
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    as long as AQ- is in button's range (and it definitely should be) then a shove is fine....

    but a fold is definitely not a horribad play here either especially given that you feel fairly confident in your ability to successfully bully the table and you are still left with a 25-30 BB stack, and you will probably only have somewhere between 35-40% equity getting it in here.
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  5. #5
    Thanks. I think the flatting of AQ earlier makes me worry his range here is tighter. Also, does the high probability of an A held by the AI short stack affect my equity (fewer outs against a large portion of tight big stacks range) ?
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  6. #6
    chardrian's Avatar
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    If you can't include AQ- in his range here then I think a fold is by far the best play given the dynamics at this table.

    As far as equity - have fun with pokerstove. I am pretty sure that you are always going to have between 35-40% equity here if we give any sort of semblance of reasonable ranges to our 2 opponents.
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  7. #7
    I feel like you're overstating how good the table is unless you just lost a big pot.

    I would stop and go, never underestimate the ability of people to make absurd lay downs.

    we have 41% vs 10% and 20%, to me that is a criminal lay down. He probably flats AA a lot so we're in even better shape. And if the table was good before it's going to be superior with a real stack.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post

    I would stop and go, never underestimate the ability of people to make absurd lay downs.
    That's so sick.

    I think you can make a case for folding with 40+ BBs when villain puts half his stack in.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  9. #9
    You might be top 5 in chips, but 25bbs is not much of a stack. Table conditions can change a lot once the blinds go up, so I wouldn't be so sure that I could keep stealing pots easily.

    Love the stop-n-go idea, never would have thought of that

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