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AKs flops TPTK, opp minraises flop bet ($27)

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  1. #1

    Default AKs flops TPTK, opp minraises flop bet ($27)

    Apologies for a pretty basic situation. Your move after the minraise? I sharkscoped opp and he is a winning player over 2,000 games.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB (t1520)
    BB (t1090)
    UTG (t1470)
    UTG+1 (t3120)
    Hero (MP1) (t1430)
    MP2 (t1660)
    CO (t1470)
    Button (t1740)

    Hero's M: 31.78

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
    2 folds, Hero raises to t120, MP2 calls t120, 4 folds

    Flop: (t285) A, 4, 10 (2 players)
    Hero bets t180, MP2 raises to t360, Hero ????
  2. #2
    I flat the min raise, c/c the turn, if he didn't put us all in on the turn I go all in on the river. If he hit a set, well, I am paying him off regardless, but if he has AQ I want him to pay me off.
  3. #3
    Totally gross. Against a bad player I think we can shove but against a good player...meh. I guess you have to call the minraise and call a small turn bet if you pick up any equity on the turn.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  4. #4
    If he is a good player, the only hands we can expect him to have are 44, TT, AT, AK, (as well as AQ, A4 and AA are possible). Okay cards for us are any diamond (for 9-outs, 8 outs if he has 44 or TT), a King (only if he has AT, but also gives us 4 outs if he has TT or 44), a Q or J (for 4-outs), an Ace doesn't help us much (only if we were already ahead of AQ, but also gives us outs against 44, TT.). The only really good cards are the Q or J of diamonds (for inside straight and flush draws, plus board can pair that Q or J to beat out AT).

    If we were in position and got check min-raised, I could see calling because he maybe back off on the turn, but out of position I think my line is to fold. If we call, we are really only happy to see 2 cards (Q and J of diamonds), and even then we are behind. Once we check the turn, how small of a turn bet can we expect, even a small bet is 1/3 of our stack.

    Folding seems like a weak play, but I say you are dominated enough of the time here that a fold cannot be a horrible play. You can say to yourself that it's only a min raise, but at this point 180 is a lot of cash equity (1/5 your stack) so to call off when you are really only hoping to hit a turn card that will give you a better draw (e.g hit running cards) or beat out two pair.
  5. #5
    call. If he had bet more I would just shove but you would hate to take him off of a bluff which this will often be.

    folding is not an option with no read beyond 'winning player'. It would be easy to be a winning player if you could min raise people off TPTK!

    the whole point of playing AK is to make a better TP hand, if you give it up on these kinds of boards you're better off playing 98s.
  6. #6
    Depends on the type of winning player IMO. If he's a mass multitabling 2+2er, this is not AQ, and probably not AK. This is a set. If he's one of the many winning players that doesn't fall into the above category, those hands (AQ AK) dominate the range that includes some bluffs.

    Why would a decent winning player minraise TPGK here, it's just weird and it turns those hands into a bluff. AK I could see playing it this way, but why minraise the flop? Call and bet/raise turn make more sense so that he doesn't fold out draws.

    This may even be a lay down, but I call and check and re-evaluate turn. If he's just got a few tables going I'd call any turn shove, but as I say, the mass-multi guys don't do this with anything other than a set in L2.

    I don't think it's a standard spot at all.

    (looking forward to reading the other responses)
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  7. #7
    Think what I said agrees with drmcboy. "winning player" as he said isn't a read. Mass multitablers who are winning players are very different from guys who play a couple at a time and are winning.

    You can give up AK against the former here IMO, but not against the latter. Oh and a shove over is horrible unless he has AQ,AJ like most of the time and calls always.
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  8. #8
    so you're saying if it's a 2+2 guy your line is what?

    also, I'll ask the same question to you, why would he raise a set here?

    He probably raises TPGK because he mostly plays raise or fold poker and because he is scared of another broadway.

    It's an OK play here since Tai would never shove over unless he has that hand beat but will probably have to call with JJ-KK and will def call with AJ/AQ. And if Tai has nothing he can't make any more money anyway but Tai may hit a two outer.
  9. #9
    If it's a 2+2 guy (particularly one that I know), they'll conserve their stack and take a passive line with any TP or QQ,JJ. (They don't have KK).

    I just fold I think. It looks bad, but flatting is going to get us into serious crap on the turn and is wasting chips.

    I don't think a 2+2 guy minraises this board with a set anyway, you're right in that respect. My point was that they are not going to minraise (or raise) any hand that can't beat TP on this board (no good draws). They have too many tables and they are waaaaay too tight early.

    They probably would flat a set and probably AK,QQ,JJ,AQ, (if they didn't fold pre).

    Also one last point would be that if they are 2+2 and a huge multi-tabling reg, how doesn't Tai already know them? Hence it probably isn't one and my line remains flat here, and check and reval turn.
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  10. #10
    re 2+2 still:

    so you're bet folding? What is your line if you have 99 or KQ? Assuming it's the same, does it seem odd that you're taking the same line with a semi bluff, a weak hand, and the hand at the top of your range? If it isn't the same, why not?

    also what hands is it that he's min raising?
  11. #11
    Not saying this isn't what I did, but if you flat call the minraise and the turn bricks, what's your move, c/c?
  12. #12
    Unless he bets something really small I don't think it matters much, i would probably just CRAI since c/c two streets and leaving like 1/4 PSB behind doesn't make much sense. I doubt he'll bluff again for that much and you'd hate to let him check an A behind on the river so c/c on river is tough. Also he might call the small turn CR with Tx but fold to a river shove
  13. #13
    I would call the minraise and check-push turn, I think you are ahead of his range and there is a decent chance you ran into AK/AQ/AJ here, AT is also an option but I would take my chance with it, I am also not totally ruling out hand like KQ or Tx who minraised in order to get a free card on the turn


  14. #14
    im def calling a stacking off, theres like no card on turn we are afraid of
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    re 2+2 still:

    so you're bet folding? What is your line if you have 99 or KQ? Assuming it's the same, does it seem odd that you're taking the same line with a semi bluff, a weak hand, and the hand at the top of your range? If it isn't the same, why not?

    also what hands is it that he's min raising?
    Well as I said I don't think a 2+2er is min-raising here. Hypothetically, if they did, it wouldn't be any marginal hand like AQ, so yeah I'm bet folding to an extremely unlikely minraise. My line is more like check w99 (KQ folded) maybe call a bet but again against THAT type of reg I just fold to a bet (one that I doubt they'd make).

    Against THIS guy and any other non-mass multi 2+2er I'm calling the minraise as I said, and calling the turn shove (that I assume is coming). CRAI to any other bet on turn.

    Having seen a lot of the advice the 2+2ers have given to me and others they are tighter than I'd ever imagined in early levels (which I believe is optimal if multitabling to the extent they do). The combination of that and the lack of draws on the board makes me think the way I do. But hey, this guy ain't one of those regs cos Tai knows them all. So this is all hypothetical
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  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by your original reply
    If he's a mass multitabling 2+2er, this is not AQ, and probably not AK. This is a set
    Quote Originally Posted by You just
    Well as I said I don't think a 2+2er is min-raising here
    Not really sure what else to say. It seems odd and counter productive to begin your reply with a scenario you feel is basically impossible.
  17. #17
    This thread has been interesting, and not to hijack it, I would like to know what we do, if we are the opp and our holdings are JJ-QQ, AQ. What range do we put Taipan on, assuming all we know about him is that he is a winning player, and what do we do after Taipan flats the min-raise and checks the turn to us? Also, should we have folded the flop with JJ-QQ, should we have folded pre with AQ? Or should we have 3-bet JJ-QQ pre flop? Sorry if my questions are a little basic, but this hand has really got me thinking outside my normal box, so to speak.

    As to the hand itself, yeah, getting the rest in on the turn either by c/c ai or crai.
  18. #18
    drmc, check my middle reply, where I acknowledged your point about min-raising a set being weird and revised my opinion.

    Basically, you made a point, I agreed with it and changed my outlook. I tend to learn by posting my opinion, reading other replies and then revising it if need be.
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  19. #19
    OK. I'm not trying to be an ass, I legitimately still don't understand what any of your posts mean after the first one, and not really that one either.

    As long as you are not folding to a flop min raise on this board we're good to go.
  20. #20
    So basically, it seem that most people think we are ahead most of the time here, and we are now only making decisions about how to extract the most chips from this person who has a worse hand than us. The concensus is that calling the flop and c/c or crai the turn is the best way to extract the most value, since he will probably fold his worse hand to a shove on the flop.

    I'm just still not convinced we have the best of it here most of the time, at least not with the players I play with. Now I am open to being wrong about this (or just there are big differences between the $1 and $2 and $5 MTTs and sngs I play vs the $25 sng here), but I still say that if I think am behind a vast majority of the time to a set or two pair, my best line is to fold to the min-raise since no cards can come that will change the situation much. In 10,000 hands I looked at, no one ever min-raised me on the flop.
  21. #21
    I never did play any 1 or 2 dollar SNGs and only a few 5s, but ever folding this hand in a low BI MTT, or any MTT where you have 50 BBs or less, is a mistake. I played plenty of those and still play vs the donks in say the Sunday Hundred grand and they'll show you anything here.

    I don't see at all what those 10k hands have to do with anything, unless you have 10k hands where you flopped TPTK on a rainbow board. Also, if you were never min raised, you were never min raised when you were beat!
  22. #22
    Yeah, minraises on the flop can mean a lot of things...the cold call on the flop+minraise on the turn is a lot scarier.

    I agree that we could be beat here a lot against a good player.

    still, as Dr says, getting away from overpairs/TPTK is usually a mistake...the biggest difference between tournament play and deepstacked cash games. I'm never folding to the minraise and we have plenty of backdoor possibilities.
  23. #23
    Drmcboy is right.

    Since we have an ace there are seven card combinations that beat us (one AA, three TT, three 44, assuming this "good player" wouldn't call preflop with AT). If we had KK here and this guy 3-bet us preflop, we lose to six card combinations of AA and I'm sure everyone in this thread would be falling all over themselves to get the money in, but you guys want to fold here to a minraise when your hand's relative strength postflop is almost equal to KK preflop?

    Now I actually have folded KK preflop a few times but not 50 BB deep, and I've also folded AK on an A high dry board a few times but not 50 BB deep.

    Also one question for the folders, if you think this gentleman is set mining preflop, and folding to your bet unless he flopped his set then why are you even betting?
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by rudefella
    If he is a good player, the only hands we can expect him to have are 44, TT, AT, AK, (as well as AQ, A4 and AA are possible).
    No, if he's a good player we should expect him to be calling preflop with any two cards and minraising any flop since apparently we're going to fold unless we have a set.
  25. #25
    As I mentioned in this post I don't get many people min-raising at the games I play ever. When they do, I am 99% of time dominated. If people start min-raising more often (as you suggest they should), I will change my play as well. I realize that at limit games people raise flop for free turn cards - I don't see that play ever at my games.

    I never said I have a blanket rule that says fold TPTK to a min raise. I said (go back and read it) that if we were in position, it would be a no brainer call. Two, in regards to folding on the flop, I was responding to a particular poster saying that we should call here with the plan of calling a small turn bet. My point was that if you are going to call here and only call a small turn bet, you are better off folding, since any turn bet is all your stack. I said that folding the flop, if you think you are behind, isn't the worst play (where as calling and then folding I think is).
  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    No, if he's a good player we should expect him to be calling preflop with any two cards and minraising any flop since apparently we're going to fold unless we have a set.
    sending you the bill for the monitor i spit water on.
  27. #27
    For what it's worth, I called the minraise, checked the turn, he shoved, I called and he showed me 44, gg me.
  28. #28
    thats obv fine tai

    anyone who folds AK here vs a good player is throwin money away. so basically u will fold anything on a dry flop except sets. i mean how profitable do u think it is for opps to raise your cbs, esp when all they have to do is MINraise lol
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog

    Also one question for the folders, if you think this gentleman is set mining preflop, and folding to your bet unless he flopped his set then why are you even betting?
    This makes no sense and you know it. When you raise preflop and he calls he could have a wide range of hands. One, I didn't put him on the set until after the min raise. Two, I didn't play the hand? The question was what to do after being min-raised. I have said nothing about how to play the hand before that, or that we knew all along he was set mining. Do you put someone on a hand preflop and then never change your mind about what they have based on the action that follows? That's what it sounds like you are saying - that we should have known earlier what we could only have known later. Based on your logic, we should have known that he had 44 and would catch a set, and should have therefore folded preflop.
  30. #30
    To suggest a fold here implies that you think he was set mining. If he's calling preflop with some unpaired hands then he can be raising worse hands for value on this flop such as AQ/AJ and you obviously can't fold in that case.
  31. #31
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    I don't play SNGs, but this is a pretty easy call and felt it in any MTT that I play.
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  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    To suggest a fold here implies that you think he was set mining. If he's calling preflop with some unpaired hands then he can be raising worse hands for value on this flop such as AQ/AJ and you obviously can't fold in that case.
    I am by no means continuing to argue that my line of folding is right or wrong, but you still make no sense because you are confusing the past with the present... thinking that someone WAS setmining (and either, now, in the present hits or misses), is different from thinking that someone IS setmining (and the actualization of the event hasn't yet taken place).

    You are saying that because in the present I now think that someone was setmining, that I should have known in the past he was setmining.
  33. #33
    IMO for a "good player," this call preflop is pretty bad. Taipan is a good player raising in EP and there are 4 people left to act...
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  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by rudefella
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    To suggest a fold here implies that you think he was set mining. If he's calling preflop with some unpaired hands then he can be raising worse hands for value on this flop such as AQ/AJ and you obviously can't fold in that case.
    I am by no means continuing to argue that my line of folding is right or wrong, but you still make no sense because you are confusing the past with the present... thinking that someone WAS setmining (and either, now, in the present hits or misses), is different from thinking that someone IS setmining (and the actualization of the event hasn't yet taken place).

    You are saying that because in the present I now think that someone was setmining, that I should have known in the past he was setmining.
    haha you two crack me up. You two are on such totally different planes of thinking that neither one of you can see where the other one is coming from.

    I think I know what both of you are thinking so here goes:

    rudefella - the guy's range preflop is any pair, AJs+, maybe some suited connectors. However, the minraise on the flop must mean he only has a monster, in this case a set (or maybe ATs) as no one will ever minraise AJ or AQ here.

    mcat - might agree on the range preflop (it doesn't really matter) but realizes that retards abound postflop and doesn't see how you can exclude AJ, AQ or a bluff from his range.
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  35. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib
    IMO for a "good player," this call preflop is pretty bad. Taipan is a good player raising in EP and there are 4 people left to act...
    Actually, I think set mining in this spot is even better against a tight but aggressive player such as myself. I take your point about four players still left to act but since my raise range is tight from EP, the chances of me having a very strong hand preflop mean that there is a bigger chance I will stack off on the flop.
  36. #36
    any good player would call hoping to set and knowing that he can move tai off 90 % when he checks to them
  37. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    any good player would call hoping to set and knowing that he can move tai off 90 % when he checks to them
    ...which would only be a small proportion of the time as I would c-bet most flops (except those which were very drawy or which otherwise had a bad texture).
  38. #38
    There are two types of good player in SNGs. The good poker player (who you're all talking about) and the multi-monster. The multi-monster may also be a good poker player, but he hasn't got time to be fancy and he learned a long time ago that with many tables going he needs to be rock solid with his stack early. And I mean ROCK solid. He is good because he can play 24 tables with positive ROI. His $$/hr is great and he can do it even if the bubble is at a ton of tables, and he's ICM or 9 handed in others. This player, if he gets agressive in THIS type of hand THIS early, has a set. End.

    Tai, if you knew it was this type of player, I believe you should have folded. I further think it wasn't this type of player, because we tend to know all those players who play when we play (because we often table select to avoid sharing our ROI with them). Hence you played it fine.

    I guess all I've done in this post is make myself look foolish. Shame.
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  39. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by gingerwizard
    There are two types of good player in SNGs. The good poker player (who you're all talking about) and the multi-monster. The multi-monster may also be a good poker player, but he hasn't got time to be fancy and he learned a long time ago that with many tables going he needs to be rock solid with his stack early. And I mean ROCK solid. He is good because he can play 24 tables with positive ROI. His $$/hr is great and he can do it even if the bubble is at a ton of tables, and he's ICM or 9 handed in others. This player, if he gets agressive in THIS type of hand THIS early, has a set. End.

    Tai, if you knew it was this type of player, I believe you should have folded. I further think it wasn't this type of player, because we tend to know all those players who play when we play (because we often table select to avoid sharing our ROI with them). Hence you played it fine.

    I guess all I've done in this post is make myself look foolish. Shame.
    No, this is a good post.

    Calling preflop with 44 is just terrible IMO. If he had called preflop with TT that would of course have been fine because he doesn't need a set to win the pot after the flop. This is something that's always baffled me about SnG tactics. I don't see how you guys can be all about stack preservation early in SnGs but then suddenly all that goes out the window when you look down at a pocket pair. Then it's time to get in there and gamble and hope to double up. Anyway this has frustrated me for awhile so I decided to analyze the situation mathematically.

    Let's make some generous assumptions for this guy. 10% of the time he gets 3-bet and he has to fold, 7/8 times he misses his set and has to fold, and of the other 1/8, 80% of the time he manages to get all-in and 20% of the time he only wins taipan's c-bet. I think it's going to happen even less than 80% but whatever. I've done the math on this before, usually if you hit a set and get all-in you win the hand about 85% of the time. The other 15% you get set-over-set or get all-in vs a flush draw and lose, etc.

    Looking at the stack sizes and an ICM calculator, before the hand villain's stack was worth $31.82. Now looking at what can happen postflop:

    1. Villain hits a set and takes taipan's whole stack, he now has 3135 chips and his stack is worth $48.50.

    2. Villain hits a set but gets coolered, he now has 230 chips and his stack is worth $5.05.

    3. Villain folds a c-bet on the flop or gets 3-bet and folds preflop, he now has 1540 chips and his stack is worth $29.82.

    4. Villain hits a set but wins only a c-bet from taipan. He now has 1990 chips and his stack is worth $37.21.

    Using the assumptions I made above, here's what happens.
    8%, hits a set and doubles up, scenario #1
    1.2%, hits a set and gets coolered, scenario #2
    10%, 3-bet preflop, scenario #3
    78.5%, folds to a c-bet, scenario #3
    2.3%, hits a set and just wins a c-bet, scenario #4

    So putting it all together the ICM equity of villain's stack upon making this call with 44 is

    (.08)(48.50) + (.012)(5.05) + (.885)(29.82) + (.023)(37.21) = $31.19.

    Villain is losing an average of 63 cents when he makes this preflop call.
  40. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by taipan168
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    any good player would call hoping to set and knowing that he can move tai off 90 % when he checks to them
    ...which would only be a small proportion of the time as I would c-bet most flops (except those which were very drawy or which otherwise had a bad texture).
    Texture doesn't really matter as much against someone who is in all probability set mining. I think even if the flop comes T98 all hearts you can still c-bet vs a player like this, although it would of course be an awful c-bet vs a player who was looser preflo.
  41. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Texture doesn't really matter as much against someone who is in all probability set mining. I think even if the flop comes T98 all hearts you can still c-bet vs a player like this, although it would of course be an awful c-bet vs a player who was looser preflo.
    I see your point, but the problem with a T98 all hearts flop is that there may be hands in his range that that flop will opp give a monster draw.
  42. #42
    I like the analysis mcat dogg - losing 63 cents makes in it marginally losing play, I wonder if having this wider calling range is +EV for any image reasons. Also it being this close makes it seem like flatting with 66-88 might be break even or even profitable.
  43. #43
    Image is irrelevant IMO. Players are totally different when it matters near bubble or when blinds are high than early.
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  44. #44
    Interesting analysis mcatdog - I would have been convinced that flatting to play for set value would be the right play here. I suppose if there were less players to act the 10% chance of getting 3-bet would be lower, potentially tipping the balance.
  45. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by rudefella
    I like the analysis mcat dogg - losing 63 cents makes in it marginally losing play, I wonder if having this wider calling range is +EV for any image reasons. Also it being this close makes it seem like flatting with 66-88 might be break even or even profitable.
    It's not marginal. If $2 is the value of the chips in the preflop call and we're losing a full 1/3 of that value when we call it seems more like terrible than marginal. Also I looked at the math again and even if the guy with 44 gets all-in 100% of the time he hits a set his equity is still only $31.32 so it's literally impossible to make money here if you're playing no set, no bet.

    I'm not a SnG expert so I have no idea what the lowest PP you can call with is here. I would guess you'd call with a range that's so strong, taipan can't profitably c-bet so much vs you anymore. If he's c-betting as often as he says, you should definitely just flat with AA and then raise his c-bet on about every flop.
  46. #46
    Awesome work mcat.

    Call is for almost 8% of villain's stack, and even if he hits and taipan is stacking off, he only has 1310 behind.
  47. #47
    Apologies for a pretty basic situation.


    I suggest this for stickies/tactics
  48. #48
    btw nice analysis mcat. Not that I've checked, but my feeling is that this calculation is not overly sensitive to the 3bet % assumption.

    I.e. even if you get 3bet relatively rarely, this is still a losing play.
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