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Originally Posted by gingerwizard
There are two types of good player in SNGs. The good poker player (who you're all talking about) and the multi-monster. The multi-monster may also be a good poker player, but he hasn't got time to be fancy and he learned a long time ago that with many tables going he needs to be rock solid with his stack early. And I mean ROCK solid. He is good because he can play 24 tables with positive ROI. His $$/hr is great and he can do it even if the bubble is at a ton of tables, and he's ICM or 9 handed in others. This player, if he gets agressive in THIS type of hand THIS early, has a set. End.
Tai, if you knew it was this type of player, I believe you should have folded. I further think it wasn't this type of player, because we tend to know all those players who play when we play (because we often table select to avoid sharing our ROI with them). Hence you played it fine.
I guess all I've done in this post is make myself look foolish. Shame.
No, this is a good post.
Calling preflop with 44 is just terrible IMO. If he had called preflop with TT that would of course have been fine because he doesn't need a set to win the pot after the flop. This is something that's always baffled me about SnG tactics. I don't see how you guys can be all about stack preservation early in SnGs but then suddenly all that goes out the window when you look down at a pocket pair. Then it's time to get in there and gamble and hope to double up. Anyway this has frustrated me for awhile so I decided to analyze the situation mathematically.
Let's make some generous assumptions for this guy. 10% of the time he gets 3-bet and he has to fold, 7/8 times he misses his set and has to fold, and of the other 1/8, 80% of the time he manages to get all-in and 20% of the time he only wins taipan's c-bet. I think it's going to happen even less than 80% but whatever. I've done the math on this before, usually if you hit a set and get all-in you win the hand about 85% of the time. The other 15% you get set-over-set or get all-in vs a flush draw and lose, etc.
Looking at the stack sizes and an ICM calculator, before the hand villain's stack was worth $31.82. Now looking at what can happen postflop:
1. Villain hits a set and takes taipan's whole stack, he now has 3135 chips and his stack is worth $48.50.
2. Villain hits a set but gets coolered, he now has 230 chips and his stack is worth $5.05.
3. Villain folds a c-bet on the flop or gets 3-bet and folds preflop, he now has 1540 chips and his stack is worth $29.82.
4. Villain hits a set but wins only a c-bet from taipan. He now has 1990 chips and his stack is worth $37.21.
Using the assumptions I made above, here's what happens.
8%, hits a set and doubles up, scenario #1
1.2%, hits a set and gets coolered, scenario #2
10%, 3-bet preflop, scenario #3
78.5%, folds to a c-bet, scenario #3
2.3%, hits a set and just wins a c-bet, scenario #4
So putting it all together the ICM equity of villain's stack upon making this call with 44 is
(.08)(48.50) + (.012)(5.05) + (.885)(29.82) + (.023)(37.21) = $31.19.
Villain is losing an average of 63 cents when he makes this preflop call.
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