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fulksy
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03-18-2010, 06:07 PM
Post subject: AK first hand vs raise/call/reraise(allin)
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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first hands so obviously no reads, what is the all ins range, I'm sure with dead chips i have to call here right?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t1500)
Hero (BB) (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
MP (t1500)
CO (t1500)
Button (t1500)
Hero's M: 33.33
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , K
UTG bets t150, MP calls t150, 2 folds, SB raises to t1500 (All-In), Hero ???
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only_bridge
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Linköping, Sweden
Posts: 100
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Fold. No reads but they are showing strengh, and if they have weak hands here, then we will get payed off deerly later on.
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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i was thinking all in's range is usually 1010+ AQ+. but i take some emphasis off AA and KK's because i think its less likely they shove these.
against 1010+ AQ+ i have 52% equity so i would think with 300 dead chips this should be a call.
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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What is the payout structure of a 6-man again?
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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70%-30%
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
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OK, assuming a 70%/30% payout and that UTG and MP both fold after SB's shove and your call, I ran the ICM:
- If you call and win you will have 3300 chips worth 33.9% of the prize pool
- If you fold you will have (close enough to) 1500 chips worth 16.7% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you are out.
Therefore, you need to be (16.7/33.2) = 50.3% to win to make this a good call.
Against a range of TT-QQ, AK (personally I don't think AQ shoves over here, but maybe a maniac would) you're 45.2% to win so you still have to fold. If you add smaller pocket pairs your equity stays pretty much the same. Plus there's a non-zero chance that opp has AA or KK here.
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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if we know that he has AQ then this is a call? since we have 52% equity against 1010+ AQ+? am i correct?
its only a $6 game so i defiantly include AQ ( might be bias because i know what he shoved with  ) but honestly i have seen so many weak hands shove over raises that my standard range here incl. AQ.
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fulksy
if we know that he has AQ then this is a call? since we have 52% equity against 1010+ AQ+? am i correct?
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Yes, of course if you believe that he is shoving with a range that includes AQ and since you have 52% equity agianst that range then you should call 
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,175
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yeah if you can ever include AQ in their range then you never fold AK pre.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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Kijjo
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Alabama
Posts: 554
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Ok, so think I agree with everything y'all have said on here, but I have a question. What if you estimate that one of the other two will call a certain % of the time, is there a mathematical way to factor that in? I know it's gotta be ugly and long to do, but have wondered about that situation before.
Let's say we include AQ for the initial shover range and I feel like one of the others will call 20% of the time with a different range - maybe let's do 99+, AJ+. How will my AK stand up vs. 2 hands and would 20% of the time be enough to change the action?
(I know the other players would not have premium hands that high a % of the time, maybe the ranges are unreasonable, but you do have some fish around now and then right? You also see some guys call as the third guy here with a really wacky range if they've gotten an early double up sometimes just trying to pull a lucky double KO).
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Donk Skills:
#1 The bluff call
#2 The Drawing-Dead Value Bet
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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won't actually post what everyone had, but i did call, and got another caller as well. so I'm also curious about kijjo's question? how do we factor in the times we get another caller, and how does it effect our calculations.
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stardustakos
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Kos - Greece
Posts: 204
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At the calculations we assume that you are going to be heads up with the guy who shoved. bu what about UTG who was the initial raiser and MP that called? Aren't you a bit worried about them? Cause if they call (you say that 2 more people called) how is AKs good anymore? I ran it at pokerstove with ranges 88+,AQs+,AQo+ (the other 3 players) and
460,554,272,640 games 695.922 secs 661,790,075 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.780% 19.19% 04.59% 88378581312 21142193976.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 25.407% 23.12% 02.28% 106489867464 10521298320.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 25.407% 23.12% 02.28% 106489867464 10521298320.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 25.407% 23.12% 02.28% 106489867464 10521298320.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
So I think it is definately a fold
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fulksy
won't actually post what everyone had, but i did call, and got another caller as well. so I'm also curious about kijjo's question? how do we factor in the times we get another caller, and how does it effect our calculations.
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Short answer, it's tough without very solid reads and a very complicated calculation in any case - and with two others in the pot it's probably safest to assume that they won't call without QQ+ which is about 2% of the time, so most of the time they contribute dead chips to the pot.
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stardustakos
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Kos - Greece
Posts: 204
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So you are saying that we make the call with AK?
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stardustakos
So you are saying that we make the call with AK?
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Depends whether you think AQ is in the shover's range. If you think it is, then call - if not, then fold. My default at the level I play ($27) is to fold unless I have a specific read that the shover is a maniac who would shove AQ-
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stardustakos
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Kos - Greece
Posts: 204
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Yes but don't we have to concider UTG 5x bet and MP calling? SB is shoving after the bettor and the caller so his range should be imo AK,AKs and QQ+. Eventually as fulksy mentioned that was a 4 way pot.
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stardustakos
Yes but don't we have to concider UTG 5x bet and MP calling? SB is shoving after the bettor and the caller so his range should be imo AK,AKs and QQ+. Eventually as fulksy mentioned that was a 4 way pot.
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If SB's range is this tight then it's an even easier fold...
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Xenq
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Two Pair
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 33
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I'm not sure you should be weighting AA and KK as a low probabililty here. There's 300 chips in the pot when it gets to SB which is 20% of his stack. I would push all-in with AA if the pot was only 15%. And because the pot is large I think you can probably widen your range slightly. It wouldn't surprise me to see someone make a squeeze there with air.
One other thing that I've experienced is that on the very first hand of a tournament you can get maniacs still tilting from their last loss and go all-in with A2C. I don't know if it's worth widening the ranges on the basis of that alone but I'd probably consider it
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 4,994
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Seems like a clear fold to me, I would include mid PP in his range before I will include AQ in it, and also AA,KK is definitly in his range, aside from that UTG raise is probably a strong hand, so all and all it seems like an easy fold
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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here's results, only posting this so people can better assume ranges at the 6.50 sngs. (which are super soft) Sb had 88, i called, and utg called with AJ! hit an ace and cruised to a win. even though this is a bad example because you can't assume that the majority of players will play this poor, but i see it more than enough to include AQ in sb's range.
I now mostly play the 11+1 turbos and i would fold here, as even though its one level up i notice their is noticeably better players overall.
FYI i recommend the 6.50's over the 5.50's because i think they are way way softer as long as you don't mind playing turbos
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