AK final table bubble

if you've just stole 2 pots off him, he must be spite pushing here. i think you beat the majority of his range.

what's the pay out?

Only top 6 or so worthwhile finishing positions.
It's a $4.40 180 man.

I think I call here too, but he might be pushing back with any pair so it might be a flip.

The flat call should really have worried me I guess.
I called figuring at best he could have any pair, two paints or Ax. Practically anything.

He showed AA good game, finish 11th lol.

Fold.

Originally Posted by K2 the ArmA

Fold.

I appreciate that in hindsight, but do you not if you have villain on such a wide range take the chance to double up and have a top three stack moving towards the final table. As I say finishing 9th or so isn't really worth the 3/4 hours work, having a stack gives you a much better chance of making last three.

I definitely call here, especially with his stats and your history with him.

Originally Posted by Skeeno

Originally Posted by K2 the ArmA

Fold.

I appreciate that in hindsight, but do you not if you have villain on such a wide range take the chance to double up and have a top three stack moving towards the final table. As I say finishing 9th or so isn't really worth the 3/4 hours work, having a stack gives you a much better chance of making last three.

Think of what you are risking (and by how much) compared to what you are being rewarded with.

-You're on the bubble in an MTT right? Basically the jump from 10th to 9th $$$ and a chance to head further into the FT is a big one. If he has made this move a few times (2-3) then I suppose you can call and hope you are 70/30. Most likely you are 60% or flipping here.

-Also think about what you gain if you call and win. You will be sitting at 45k or so, is it impossible for you to get there (or the FT) if you fold and now sit with 20k (15bb)?

I could do the icm calc for you but do you see what I'm getting at? Risk vrs. reward, risk vrs. reward, risk vrs. reward. Is it worth it? Bubble play is hard and it's very important to make other players bubble and you to not bubble. That's your goal, not bubble and make someone else bubble.

-Now since he can't bubble and you can, I feel like there's too much at risk for too little reward when folding will not cripple you and you are not desperate enough to gamb00l.

I fold and, personally, start playing rather aggressive against everyone else besides that guy. It's OK to open push your SB into the short or even stack BB because his calling range is so low. Sometimes it's scarey, but it's right.

I'm assuming this is a $4.40 180 person SnG. If your goal is to get top 3, then call. If you just want to make the FT, then fold. This is such an auto-call late in an MTT.

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

I'm assuming this is a $4.40 180 person SnG. If your goal is to get top 3, then call. If you just want to make the FT, then fold. This is such an auto-call late in an MTT.

Really? Auto-call?

It's a 180 man. Eleven left at the time so I'd won my stake back.
I still think I'd call number of times he turns over AQ/AJ/A10/A9/KQ/KJ/K10/QJ etc is just as likely i'm sure someone could run the stats but I think I'd call here whatever . . .

Thanks for the responses though guys, helpful and I can see a reason for folding, mainly because the super aggro vilain only called, which really should have screamed "big pair"

Is he range really that tight if your read is he's pushing everyone around on the bubble? I really don't see calling off your chips into hands that you are probably 60% against. Not to mention how many chips you can possibly pick up in the next hands.

-Would you rather call and see 55 flipped over or fold and start pushing into the other shorter stacks making them call only the top 10% of hands (or even less)?

Yea, we want top 3 but is calling the loose big stack with AKo the way to get here? I don't think so.

So we're folding AK for only 19BBs when we get limp-reraised from the CO? So weak

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

So we're folding AK for only 19BBs when we get limp-reraised from the CO? So weak

Effectively, I'm folding because I can still play very aggressively into the other equal stacks and easily pick up the amount I just raised away. Wouldn't you rather be pushing into them than calling? I think the bubble is where gap theory is at it's purest form. It's not like we're folding AA here, AKo isn't a made hand.

Why is it really that weak? Shouldn't we be looking at the bigger picture here rather than the immediate "AK is > lots of hands", I call?

I think you're overestimating your edge. It's not like we all have 100BB stacks. You can only do so much outplaying when everyone has less than 20 BBs

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

I think you're overestimating your edge. It's not like we all have 100BB stacks. You can only do so much outplaying when everyone has less than 20 BBs

I don't really think I'm outplaying the table, rather that there calling ranges are very low on the bubble and I won't have very many problems picking up the chips I lost here.

-Of course if the table is 100% full of super-donk calling stations then the situation changes a bit I spose.

You don't know how long the bubble is going to last either.

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

You don't know how long the bubble is going to last either.

What does that change?

If you fold, planning on exploiting the bubble and someone busts on the other table such that the final table starts next hand your plan isn't so great, amirite?

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

If you fold, planning on exploiting the bubble and someone busts on the other table such that the final table starts next hand your plan isn't so great, amirite?

True

So the optimal plan here is to take a what? a probable 60% - flip for tourny life to stack up to 45k before the FT?

Until someone convinces me otherwise, that's what I would do

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

Until someone convinces me otherwise, that's what I would do

Do you think you still made the right play if you call and he flips off AA?

yes, if I think I'm making the correct play, what does it matter if he happens to have AA?

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

yes, if I think I'm making the correct play, what does it matter if he happens to have AA?

Can you explain why you think it's the right play. I feel like I'm missing something here.

-Or is this very neutral situation where both of our plays are valid, just different?

I don't understand why you asked the AA question. That's like going all in with KK, running into a villian with AA, then wondering if you made the correct play.

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

I don't understand why you asked the AA question. That's like going all in with KK, running into a villian with AA, then wondering if you made the correct play.

Me either, I guess I'm wondering if you think it's correct 100% of the time since his push range is so large - who knows what you are calling into etc..

Yes, this isn't like an SnG bubble, this is an MTT FT bubble where we are already ITM and the payout jumps from where we are to 4th place are very minor and all the money is in the top 3 or 4 spots.

I just don't know anymore, I think I agree with you.

It's like an instant message!

You have to call here.

Originally Posted by givememyleg

It's like an instant message!

You have to call here.

i can see reasons for folding. you are not at all pot committed.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Originally Posted by givememyleg

It's like an instant message!

You have to call here.

i can see reasons for folding. you are not at all pot committed.

Who said anything about being pot commiited? You don't have to be committed to have to make a call. Sure there are reasons for anything, but using the information that was given to us by op, folding is a mistake.

That being said, has he ever limped on the button before this hand?

just because villain has been really aggressive doesn't mean we need to be the table sheriff all of a sudden. if the payout was like an sng, this would be insta-call. but because of the extremely top heavy 1st/2nd nature of MTTs, i think this is a closer decision.

and any limp after a lot of previous aggression is always suspect.