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fulksy
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03-12-2010, 05:13 AM
Post subject: Ak bubble
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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we've discussed similar situation's, butvillain has been shoving probably 8 out of every 10 hands, I'm pretty sure this is a fold but with opponent acting before me i have very few chances to shove IP.
What are we calling with.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB (t3845)
UTG (t4175)
Hero (Button) (t3610)
SB (t1870)
Hero's M: 6.02
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , A
UTG bets t4175 (All-In), 3 folds
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taipan168
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Administrator
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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Definitely a fold. Haven't run it in SNG Wiz but if UTG is shoving 80% then my guess is that we call with something like 99+
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,176
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it's a fold, you have the worst seat in the house.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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when someones pushing like this and he has position on you whats your strategy? i don't have many chances to steal on the button or SB, i do take my opportunities to steal when i have the chance but it comes around maybe once every three orbits so i get blinded down. his calling range isn't to loose because short stack is stealing a bit, so should i open up my range from UTG.
same sng
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t3745)
BB (t4375)
Hero (UTG) (t2290)
Button (t3090)
Hero's M: 3.05
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, A
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets t2290 (All-In) good push????
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taipan168
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Administrator
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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I like the A5s push. Once the blinds go through you, you lose a lot of your FE, you're short stack on the table so you have least to lose, if opps are tight you steal the blinds uncontested a good proportion of the time and if they call you're not dead with A5s against their likely calling ranges.
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deucesomething
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 104
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Why is it not ok to call an AI here, especially when the villain is shoving 8/10 hands and is presumably playing a wide range of cards? How come 99 is sufficient for a call and AKo is not?
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taipan168
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deucesomething
Why is it not ok to call an AI here, especially when the villain is shoving 8/10 hands and is presumably playing a wide range of cards?
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All down to the ICM effect (ie. chips we win are worth far less than chips we lose, particularly because there is a short stack around) which is very pronounced here. Don't have time to run the numbers now but I'll do it a little later
Quote:
Originally Posted by deucesomething
How come 99 is sufficient for a call and AKo is not?
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equity win tie
Hand 0: 34.907% 33.89% 01.02% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o } - note this is 80% of hands
Hand 1: 65.093% 64.08% 01.02% { AKo }
equity win tie
Hand 0: 30.882% 30.50% 00.38% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 69.118% 68.74% 00.38% { 99 }
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,539
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Wow didn't realize ICM could have that strong of an influence when our chips are so low. Given that it's going to be very tough to gain any more chips here, does that possibly overrule icm? What if you think that your opponents all are decent sng players and will be playing just as tight to shoves?
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taipan168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld
Wow didn't realize ICM could have that strong of an influence when our chips are so low. Given that it's going to be very tough to gain any more chips here, does that possibly overrule icm? What if you think that your opponents all are decent sng players and will be playing just as tight to shoves?
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It's got less to do with the fact that our chips are low or high, and more to do with the fact that there is another stack with half our chips around. It would be a totally different story if we were the short stack.
If all our opps are decent SNG players and will play as tight as we should in this spot then that's even more of an argument to not take an -EV spot here and open shove a much wider range.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,565
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So do we get to a point 4 handed (assuming your opps are playing good push fold) where everyone should shove UTG 100% and fold anything worse than QQ+?
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fulksy
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Edmonton,Canada
Posts: 1,018
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
So do we get to a point 4 handed (assuming your opps are playing good push fold) where everyone should shove UTG 100% and fold anything worse than QQ+?
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this situation wouldn't happen because blinds affect stack sizes so much that their will always be someone who is short stacked, big stack, etc. where it would be correct to call with AK etc.
i think this specific situation is more about how these stack sizes affect the ICM. if stacks were different say i was short stack, big stack or even if we were all even i would call here(not sure if this is right).
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taipan168
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Administrator
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Location: Sydney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
So do we get to a point 4 handed (assuming your opps are playing good push fold) where everyone should shove UTG 100% and fold anything worse than QQ+?
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Welcome to 1-table SNGs!
Seriously though, this sort of situation probably only arises where the big stack is UTG (where it would be correct for him/her to shove 100%) and the second stack needs to make a decision whether or not to call. It's obviously correct for the short stack to call with a much wider range.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,539
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So let's say you and the other middle stack play absolutely perfectly against utgs shoving range, and the sb plays alright. Should utg shove 100%? I'm just wondering who's making the mistake if you play this tight...
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,565
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OK, so with no short stack you're saying we shove 100% UTG vs 3 other good players? How short are we talking?
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taipan168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
OK, so with no short stack you're saying we shove 100% UTG vs 3 other good players? How short are we talking?
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To take an example, if all 4 players have equal stacks (ie. 3375) and blinds are 200/400/25, and all players call very tight in this spot (say JJ+, AK) then it is correct for UTG to shove 100%.
However, because stacks are equal, if (say) BB knows that UTG is shoving 100%, it's correct for him to call much wider (SNG Wiz suggests 17%) so UTG can't profitably shove as wide. And so the iteration continues...
To take another example, assume that one player has half the stack of the other three (who are all equal stacked). In this case, if UTG is shoving 100% then it's correct for BB (equal stacked with UTG) to call with only 6.6%
If the short stack has 1/3 the chips of the others then it's correct to call with 3.5%
And so it goes on
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stardustakos
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Kos - Greece
Posts: 204
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UTG is shoving 8 out of 10 hands cause he knows that because of the small stack, one can call only with an insanely tight range. ICM calculator shows that UTG must shove 56% and button must call only TT+. At this case that UTG shoves wider, doesn't that fact justify a call with AK?
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taipan168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stardustakos
UTG is shoving 8 out of 10 hands cause he knows that because of the small stack, one can call only with an insanely tight range. ICM calculator shows that UTG must shove 56% and button must call only TT+. At this case that UTG shoves wider, doesn't that fact justify a call with AK?
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I ran this in SNG Wiz a few days ago and from memory we need to be like 70% to win against UTG's range to make calling +EV. Because we're on the button and there are two players still to act, we need to add to our equity if we fold the chance that either SB or BB will call and somebody bubbles. (EDIT: If we fold, our equity is 28%. If we call and win, it is 40%. If we call and lose it is 0% - hence the 70%).
Even if UTG showed us 32o (ie. he's shoving 100%) we would still need to fold our AKo since AKo only has 65% equity against AKo.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stardustakos
UTG is shoving 8 out of 10 hands cause he knows that because of the small stack, one can call only with an insanely tight range. ICM calculator shows that UTG must shove 56% and button must call only TT+. At this case that UTG shoves wider, doesn't that fact justify a call with AK?
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If you go through this forum over the years you'll see this situation over and over again. In general we never have odds to call with AK because it fairs so poorly against a random hand...as taipan said, never more than 2-1 favorite, whereas QQ is 4-1 over a random hand.
In practice, hardly anyone plays perfect bubble strategy, and you will always have medium stacks calling wider, and big stacks who won't push 100%.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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stardustakos
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Kos - Greece
Posts: 204
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Point taken. Thanks
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