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drmcboy
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06-29-2008, 09:15 PM
Post subject: AA sunday million
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#1 (permalink)
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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He got to the table with that stack, and I had mine before he came. he's 20/8 40 hands. comments on flop and turn welcome as well.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
saw flop|saw showdown
Hero (t21310)
UTG+1 (t19675)
MP1 (t11750)
MP2 (t10985)
MP3 (t7750)
CO (t7830)
Button (t19025)
SB (t7725)
BB (t12975)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A , A .
Hero raises to t600, 5 folds, Button calls t600, 2 folds.
Flop: (t1500) 3, 8, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t975, Button raises to t4400, Hero calls t3425.
Turn: (t10300) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t6700, Hero calls t6700.
River: (t23700) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t7325 (All-In), Hero
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: ISHPERMING MISHIGEN
Posts: 5,040
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This is scary, and sucks being so deep. I think I can find a fold here, the flop is like a desert and he went nuts. I think I usually play it the same, idk how the action can go any different...
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
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Turn is obviously shove-or-fold over his bet with that little behind. People in the Million are terribad and I've seen tons of them overplay TT like this, and he might check it behind on the river but obv shove sets. If you want to continue with the hand you might as well get stacks in when you have the best hand and not just when you have the worst hand.
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FlyingSaucy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Watching the kids
Posts: 1,603
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So is it generally better to AI flop and pay set hunters when this deep?
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silu73
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 1,009
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I would c/fold the turn, hate myself and move on.
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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I think his range post flop is 67s, 33, 55, 88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ or maybe KK. Post turn his range doesn't change, but post river I think his range dwindles to 67s, 33, 55, 88, JJ, and MAYBE QQ or KK. i think you played the hand right and you should fold on the river. i think there's enough you can beat on the turn to justify a call, but post river there isnt much you can beat.
All in all I wouldda 3 bet the flop all in.
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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I'm calling no set on the flop and he holds JJ.
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Sprayed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: GO BUCKS!
Posts: 3,057
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His reraise on the flop is just ridiculous. I can't see him having a set here. Why would he reraise so much? If he's a scared donkey, I guess. I think that he has an over pair. As played, I call on the river. I would have gotten it in on the turn.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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Well, at least we all agree.
I folded river fwiw, I figure river bet throws out TT and probably QQ. With this range KK,JJ,88,55,33,76s it's an OK fold, right around a 3/1 dog. if we think he has lower PPs ever it's a bad fold. Also taking out 76 makes it a bad fold since it's easier for him to hold KK, but then I'm tempted to discount KK a bit as well.
Looking again now I'm wondering if maybe I should bet/fold turn? This line just seems horrible but I'm not convinced he ever calls a turn CRAI with worse.
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
Well, at least we all agree.
I folded river fwiw, I figure river bet throws out TT and probably QQ. With this range KK,JJ,88,55,33,76s it's an OK fold, right around a 3/1 dog. if we think he has lower PPs ever it's a bad fold. Also taking out 76 makes it a bad fold since it's easier for him to hold KK, but then I'm tempted to discount KK a bit as well.
Looking again now I'm wondering if maybe I should bet/fold turn? This line just seems horrible but I'm not convinced he ever calls a turn CRAI with worse.
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the more I think about the more I think he just flopped a set
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pantherhound
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Love me for a season
Posts: 492
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every time i fold in this type of scenerio i always think in retrospect villain is one of those awful stubborn donks who 'put me on AK' and inadvertently turned his 77 into a bluff.
from his bet sizing though it looks like he hopes you have what you have and is trying to get it all in, or probably more likely has JJ.
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CorbinDallas
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 509
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this is where you need to look up the guy on some kind of tracking site. OPR, sharkscope etc.
sure a set is possible. but so is 99+.
i dont think its a set on the flop. yer bet could easily be a c-bet with AK. a set is gonna call and hope you hit yer A or K on the next streets. i think 99-QQ is more likely. he's raising that much on the flop cuz he doesn't want you to hit your over cards. why would he automatically put you on KK or AA and then raise to 4400 to get value on his set? i just can't see that.
then 6700 on the turn. he has 99-QQ for sure. i think re-raise flop or turn... and if he hit the set on the river then nice hand him. you beat 3/4 hands he has. folding isn't horrid cuz the blinds are still low. but you just spent 2/3 yer stack with AA. i think a re-raise on the flop or turn is best.
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hlester25
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CorbinDallas
this is where you need to look up the guy on some kind of tracking site. OPR, sharkscope etc.
sure a set is possible. but so is 99+.
i dont think its a set on the flop. yer bet could easily be a c-bet with AK. a set is gonna call and hope you hit yer A or K on the next streets. i think 99-QQ is more likely. he's raising that much on the flop cuz he doesn't want you to hit your over cards. why would he automatically put you on KK or AA and then raise to 4400 to get value on his set? i just can't see that.
then 6700 on the turn. he has 99-QQ for sure. i think re-raise flop or turn... and if he hit the set on the river then nice hand him. you beat 3/4 hands he has. folding isn't horrid cuz the blinds are still low. but you just spent 2/3 yer stack with AA. i think a re-raise on the flop or turn is best.
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I think he flopped the set and is looking to get value from an overpair. With the 8 high flop villian can put you on a lot of overpairs.... a lot of which a turn card can scare you out of the pot. JJ is also very possible though.
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FlyingSaucy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Watching the kids
Posts: 1,603
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
With this range KK,JJ,88,55,33,76s it's an OK fold, right around a 3/1 dog. if we think he has lower PPs ever it's a bad fold. Also taking out 76 makes it a bad fold since it's easier for him to hold KK, but then I'm tempted to discount KK a bit as well.
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I forgot if it's Sklansky or Harrington that always says give 10% of range to a bluff.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
Looking again now I'm wondering if maybe I should bet/fold turn? This line just seems horrible but I'm not convinced he ever calls a turn CRAI with worse.
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You're totally right on most of his range he's not folding a better hand to a turn check raise. Betting half of his remaining stack on the turn after being checked to is a pretty good indication he's not laying down to a CRAI. From his perspective you're playing this exactly like high pockets so he's got a good idea of what he's up against and probably value betting. It's a good river fold but I like bet/fold the turn a little better. I'm still on the fence about jamming it on the flop.
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Fjaman
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 176
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i think you have to decide what do do on the flop and go with it, push all in on the flop or fold
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Deafmann
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Amsterdam
Posts: 57
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Flying, it was Harrington who said that.
I think shoving the flop over him is a good play, if he really got the set, well to bad. But really dont think so cause the boards to dry.
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