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10 Player Double Up First Hand expected value help.
Here's the situation:
Micro Stakes $1.00 double up
10 Players
Starting chips 1,500
Blinds 10/20
Literally the first hand in the the tourney and I am dealt QhQd in the BB. Three limpers and the small blind folds. I raise to 110. Two fold and the Dealer calls.
Pot is 270
Flop : 9s, 9c, Kc
I aim to be tight aggressive so I am inclined to bet here but I don't like the King so I only bet half the pot, 135.
Pot 405
The dealer raises me to 675.
Pot 1080
...
I folded. So early in the tournament, it just didn't make sense to call. That fold left a bad taste in my mouth and I questioned it until I decided to analyze the hand. That lead to think maybe I should have called and I wanted to figure out the expected value in doing so.
So the question is how to figure out the expected value of calling in this situation. Its not about the merits of raising versus calling. Just determining the expected value of the call. I think I have this right but I would love any input into my thought process and my math in this case.
I know nothing on my opponent, first time I ever playing with them. Using Pokerstove I input my hand versus random opponent and the results were:
Win 80%
Lose 20%
So if I were to call this hand 100 times I would (mathematically) win 80 times and lose 20
80 times I would win the pot, 1080.
80 times 1080 is 86,400
20 time I would lose 540
20 times -540 is -10,800
86,400
-10,800
75,600
75,600/100 is 756. Making the expected value of calling in this situation a positive 756.
Ultimately I doubled up through the same guy many, many hands later, crippling him. A few hands after that I took him out of the tournament.
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