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10 Player Double Up First Hand expected value help.

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  1. #1

    Default 10 Player Double Up First Hand expected value help.

    Here's the situation:

    Micro Stakes $1.00 double up

    10 Players

    Starting chips 1,500

    Blinds 10/20

    Literally the first hand in the the tourney and I am dealt QhQd in the BB. Three limpers and the small blind folds. I raise to 110. Two fold and the Dealer calls.

    Pot is 270

    Flop : 9s, 9c, Kc

    I aim to be tight aggressive so I am inclined to bet here but I don't like the King so I only bet half the pot, 135.

    Pot 405

    The dealer raises me to 675.

    Pot 1080

    ...

    I folded. So early in the tournament, it just didn't make sense to call. That fold left a bad taste in my mouth and I questioned it until I decided to analyze the hand. That lead to think maybe I should have called and I wanted to figure out the expected value in doing so.

    So the question is how to figure out the expected value of calling in this situation. Its not about the merits of raising versus calling. Just determining the expected value of the call. I think I have this right but I would love any input into my thought process and my math in this case.

    I know nothing on my opponent, first time I ever playing with them. Using Pokerstove I input my hand versus random opponent and the results were:

    Win 80%
    Lose 20%

    So if I were to call this hand 100 times I would (mathematically) win 80 times and lose 20

    80 times I would win the pot, 1080.

    80 times 1080 is 86,400

    20 time I would lose 540

    20 times -540 is -10,800

    86,400
    -10,800
    75,600

    75,600/100 is 756. Making the expected value of calling in this situation a positive 756.

    Ultimately I doubled up through the same guy many, many hands later, crippling him. A few hands after that I took him out of the tournament.
  2. #2
    there are problems with your assumptions:

    1) You ran equity vs a random hand. You are not playing against a random hand, you are playing against a hand that limped then called a raise, then raised you on a K99 board. You need to assign a logical range which includes lots of Kx, some 9x, other pairs, and maybe JT to account for bluffs (which I think will be very rare here).

    2) this is the flop. You also need to account for a likely shove on the turn and or smaller bets on the turn and river. Your equity on the flop doesn't matter in a vacuum since there is still money behind.


    That said, your fold is fine as played. In general I would check the flop and go from there, you want this to be a small pot.
  3. #3
    dombo's Avatar
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    Yes agree with drmcboy about look at his range and it seems that range has you crushed here, I would also opt to check on this flop. And even more about playing small pots early on, cause you only have to make top5
  4. #4
    In this kind of situation, what I do is not making cbet, because you will only get called or raised by better hands than yours. Its the first hand of the tournament and you are playing against an unknown guy. if he checks also you are probably winning and maybe I would check/call the next streets, depending on his bets and the flop and river.
    despite what I said before, your fold is ok, cause his range has you crushed

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