$6.50 JJ, on KKx flop multiway

SHould I bet? No reads

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00+$0.50 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1730)
MP1 (t1490)
MP2 (t1430)
MP3 (t1520)
Hero (CO) (t1470)
Button (t1460)
SB (t1400)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)

Hero's M: 32.67

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J
3 folds, MP2 calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t120, Button calls t120, 1 fold, BB calls t90, MP2 calls t90

Flop: (t495) 4, K, K (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero?

Even though giving a free card with JJ is bad, I would check, although that may not be correct. Seems to be WA/WB. if Button bets and everyone else folds I might go for a check-raise myself.

I have a theory that in multiway raised pots, someone will always try to check-raise/3-bet bluff on high paired flops. We can't really call that three-bet so yeah, I'd check.

I think this it tough multiway. My initial reaction is to take a stab, but then I thought a check might be better, especially since any reasonable bet is a big bet (with four people calling 120). If we bet, and get a call or raise, it makes for a tough decision. I'd like to check, see what people do, and possibly see a turn card. If you are faced with a bet by the button here, you at least get to see what the other two callers do, before deciding. If not, you get to see a turn card and re-evaluate.

However, here are some of my reasons to bet:

(1) Worse pocket pairs (55-TT) are definitely in people's calling ranges, as is A4. If you don't bet, they might, and then it's a tough spot.

(2) You can take down the pot a decent amount of the time.

(3) You have position on two of the players if you get called anywhere.

(4) There's a good chance you are ahead, but if you check you give the pot away to anyone who wants to the bet the turn. Also if you check, you allow a free A or Q to spike the turn. Even a third diamond isn't so great.

Reasons not to bet:

(1) The button has position on you. When he calls, you can't really put him on a hand (he could be floating with a K, with a 4 (or 44), with a flush draw, or even an Ad, or worse pocketpair). What will you do on the turn if he calls, since his range could be wide.

(2) You inflate an already inflated pot by betting and if called will likely face difficult decisions afterwards, or you will have to be be ok with shutting down after taking a stab at the flop. Since the pot is 500, any bet now is a significant amount of your stack.

i'd bet and feel totally OK folding to a raise as I have a theory no one is crazy enough to bluff raise this board. If they have a diamond draw you probably aren't a big favorite anyway. HPS bet, you aren't folding flush draws (or paying them off), may as well get value from lower PPs

I dunno, when I lead out here with AK I get CR by a ton of stupid hands.

why not get it in over the CR then?

Usually do, but they fold to the 4-bet so often, hence leading me to the belief that people like to bluff-raise here. Betting out with flopped trips is like a "tricky" play in $6.5 tournaments.

So you're pretty sure they are going to CR fold and that's why you don't want to bet? by the time that happens we're probably glad they fold a bare Q/A although you may just be ignoring the stack/pot size.

I make it 150 preflop to try to reduce the number of opps seeing the flop.

Apart from a set or undercard flop, I actually think this isn't such a bad flop for us. The two Ks on the flop reduces the chance that somebody out there has another one. I would typically bet like 300 here and as drmcboy said, fold to a raise. Betting gets value from a bunch of hands you're ahead of including FDs and lower PPs and maybe even crap like A4.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

So you're pretty sure they are going to CR fold and that's why you don't want to bet? by the time that happens we're probably glad they fold a bare Q/A although you may just be ignoring the stack/pot size.

I was referring to leading out here with AK. In this case yeah, I'd definitely fold JJ to reraise. Sorry for the thread jack.

wa/wb + yeti combine here


my play: the pot is too big so i'd seek a cheap showdown though.
k behind > b/f >>>>>> b/3b/ai imo

Wait a second. We bet 300 to get value out of lower PPs and A4. WTF do we do if flatted when the turn hits? 2 streets to get to show down, and I may have to call a few big bets to get there, cos I won't be leading again.

Seems if we're really gonna get value, we need to be able to bet and get called by worse hands, AND get those worse hands to showdown without getting all our chips in on the turn or river.

By that reasoning, I don't want calls if I bet, which means I'm turning my hand into a bluff by betting.

Is my reasoning flawed?

I would lead this pot for about 270-300, fold to a raise, if you are called then it depends on who called and how many people called, if MP calls I am not concerned too much (limp, call raise, check is usually low-mid PP or A+low kicker) if the button or BB calls you have to be concerned a bit then I would try to get to a cheap showdown

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

WTF do we do if flatted when the turn hits? 2 streets to get to show down, and I may have to call a few big bets to get there, cos I won't be leading again.

Depends on what the turn is and who is betting. Remember you have position on 2 opps so only if the Button calls your bet will you be OOP.

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

Seems if we're really gonna get value, we need to be able to bet and get called by worse hands, AND get those worse hands to showdown without getting all our chips in on the turn or river.

If you bet the flop and either BB or MP2 call your bet, you will have position on them so can check behind on the turn if they check. If they bet big then fold.

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

By that reasoning, I don't want calls if I bet, which means I'm turning my hand into a bluff by betting.

Is my reasoning flawed?

Yes, I think it is - because there will be a bunch of hands that you beat that will call your flop bet but will check the turn and maybe the river, meaning you don't necessarily have to be AI by the river to get to showdown. Plus, almost by definition, if there are hands that you beat that will call a bet, you aren't turning your hand into a bluff.

So your reasoning is that if the flat the flop they *may* check the turn AND, following my check behind may *also* check the river. What % of hands that I beat call a bet, check turn AND check river after I've checked behind in a $6.50.

If I get called by BB or MP2, I have a PSB left. It seems any turn or river bet they make cripples me, so I'd be in a horrible position even if they bet HP on river.

Basically my point is that if called I'm suddenly in a large pot early with a marginal hand, desperately hoping for opponents to check both subsequent streets. I therefore don't want calls on the flop. Therefore it doesn't feel like a value bet

we're already in a large pot with a mediocre hand, that ship has sailed.

you can easily be outplayed whether you bet or check. so don't worry about it. that is, ignore Kx hands and FD hands (or bluffs) that are willing to check raise or fire a couple shells because they are going to win the pot whatever you do unless you hit a J. And you are for sure going to call 1 HPS bet from them anyway so checking doesn't save you any money.

So bet, get some value if they want to chase you, pick up the pot if everyone bricked and don't let AT and QJ have a free card to win a big pot where they would have auto folded.

everyone please stop saying WA/WB, you're almost never WA of 3 other people on this board.

You talk sense my friend.