$6.5 - AQ vs LAGG RRAI l4

**mattiesmat** · 03-26-2008 08:16 PM

Villain was 30/26 over 25ish hands, no specific reads.
What would you do here?
Can anybody show me the math on this one?

Poker Stars $15+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t2955
SB: t1835
BB: t1760
Hero (UTG): t1435
UTG+1: t1595
MP1: t1405
MP2: t1355
CO: t1160

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with Q

A

Hero raises to t250, 4 folds, BTN raises to t2955 all in, 2 folds, Hero ??

**Sprayed** · 03-26-2008 09:45 PM

Unless you have some specific read, this is a hard one to call. You would have to think that he should know that you are in EP which means that you should be raising fairly tight and you are somewhat short. If this wasn't an SNG, I would say must call, but since it is, ICM probably says fold.

**bjsaust** · 03-26-2008 10:22 PM

If you're going to call this, you probably should have pushed in the first place.

Fairly sure this is a fold.

**arfster** · 03-27-2008 01:17 AM

1) Best case scenario: he's a newb/bored/figured your raise was tentative. Give him 99+, AKs, AQs or AKo and pokerstove makes him a 64-36 fav.

2) He has qq+ or AKs, and is thus 73-27.

Second one looks more likely - he's miles ahead of the blinds, and it's pretty daft to risk his strong stack to pinch 400 chips, unless he has a monster.

If you win you end up with 3020, nice and unthreatened by the blinds. Fold and you have 1185, and you're still healthy, although next level blinds will be a bit uncomfortable.

Absent signs of major donkhood, wild bluffing or enormous bullying, looks like a fold imo. However, if you had a read that suggested he might overrate and push anything down to around AJo, then it's a straight coinflip vs your hand.

03-26-2008 08:16 PM #1
mattiesmat View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2007 Posts 722	$6.5 - AQ vs LAGG RRAI l4 Villain was 30/26 over 25ish hands, no specific reads. What would you do here? Can anybody show me the math on this one? Poker Stars $15+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 8 players The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com BTN: t2955 SB: t1835 BB: t1760 Hero (UTG): t1435 UTG+1: t1595 MP1: t1405 MP2: t1355 CO: t1160 Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with Q A Hero raises to t250, 4 folds, BTN raises to t2955 all in, 2 folds, Hero ??
	I am just another learning player, so read my comments (very) open minded.
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03-26-2008 09:45 PM #2
Sprayed View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Nov 2005 Posts 3,326 Location GO BUCKS!	Unless you have some specific read, this is a hard one to call. You would have to think that he should know that you are in EP which means that you should be raising fairly tight and you are somewhat short. If this wasn't an SNG, I would say must call, but since it is, ICM probably says fold.

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03-26-2008 10:22 PM #3
bjsaust View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date May 2007 Posts 6,282 Location Ballarat, Australia	If you're going to call this, you probably should have pushed in the first place. Fairly sure this is a fold.
	Just dipping my toes back in.
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03-27-2008 01:17 AM #4
arfster View Profile View Forum Posts Join Date Mar 2008 Posts 7	1) Best case scenario: he's a newb/bored/figured your raise was tentative. Give him 99+, AKs, AQs or AKo and pokerstove makes him a 64-36 fav. 2) He has qq+ or AKs, and is thus 73-27. Second one looks more likely - he's miles ahead of the blinds, and it's pretty daft to risk his strong stack to pinch 400 chips, unless he has a monster. If you win you end up with 3020, nice and unthreatened by the blinds. Fold and you have 1185, and you're still healthy, although next level blinds will be a bit uncomfortable. Absent signs of major donkhood, wild bluffing or enormous bullying, looks like a fold imo. However, if you had a read that suggested he might overrate and push anything down to around AJo, then it's a straight coinflip vs your hand.

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$6.5 - AQ vs LAGG RRAI l4

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