$3.50 18 man 77 vs raise

**Luco** · 05-21-2012 03:18 PM

Villain here is 31/5/1.8 over 65 hands. 6 left, top 4 pay. This guy is often aggressive on the flop.

PokerStars - $3.11+$0.39|150/300 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: 3,029.00
CO: 3,920.00
BTN: 1,346.00
SB: 7,679.00
Hero (BB): 5,060.00
UTG: 5,966.00

MP posts ante 25.00, CO posts ante 25.00, BTN posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, UTG posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 150.00, Hero posts BB 300.00

Pre Flop: (600.00) Hero has 7

7

fold, MP raises to 900.00, fold, fold, fold, hero???

the two things that made me slow down were the low PFR stat (he preferred limping in then betting flops) and being so close to the money. IIRC this was a standard raise for him, but he didn't make them often and it came out semi fast.

Shove or fold?

**Fielmann** · 05-21-2012 03:44 PM

Fold. Loose passive fish isn't going to fold to 3bshove nearly often enough.

**donkbee** · 05-22-2012 05:42 PM

Unless you have seem him shove with a 10bb (or less) stack before, I would probably just 3bet jam. 77 is the worst PP I do it with. I don't love it or anything, but 77 is just too good to fold IMO.

**Luco** · 05-22-2012 10:43 PM

This spot really made me think.

- We're playing push/fold, but not dead, if we lose
- You pretty much have to expect a lot of calls given tight pfr range
- Can I put the chips to better use by folding
- Busting villain will put me in a v. strong position on the bubble to build a stack
- Villain has limped 17 times and this is his 4th raise, his first in a while too

The only snap decision I made with this hand was clicking 'mark for review'...

**Fielmann** · 05-23-2012 08:47 AM

I would guess villain's calling range is something like {TT+, AQ+}. We have 37.2% equity against it.

If we fold, our equity in the prize pool is 18.17% according to ICM. However, we have an edge over our opposition. So let's say our real equity-if-fold is 21.0%.

If we shove and villain folds, our ICM-equity is 21,9%, so our real equity is something like 25%.

If we shove and villain calls and we win, our ICM-equity is 26.6%. However, the

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

- Busting villain will put me in a v. strong position on the bubble to build a stack

matters too, so our real real equity probably around 32%.

If we shove and villain calls and we lose, our ICM-equity is 9.5%, so our real equity is something like 10%.

If the probability of villain folding is x, then, for the shove to be profitable:

0.25x + 0.32*0.372*(1-x) + 0.1*0.628*(1-x) > 0.21

0.25x + 0,11904 - 0,11904x + 0,0628 - 0,0628x > 0,21

0,25x - 0,11904x - 0,0628x > 0,21 - 0,11904 - 0,0628

0,06816x > 0,02816

x > 41%

Villain's calling range includes 62 combos, so his raising range needs to include at least 105 combos which is something like {88+, AT+} or 8.0% which is not implausible.

So in the end, both folding and shoving are probably about equally good.

**Luco** · 05-23-2012 05:32 PM

Wow, thanks for that, really interesting, did you get the ICM stuff from SngWiz? I'll have to check it out as I move up.

Donkbee, he'd never shoved. Not even once.

**donkbee** · 05-23-2012 09:04 PM

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Donkbee, he'd never shoved. Not even once.

Then I would jam :P

I like your work, Fielmann. I do think that his calling range is wider than TT+ AQ+ though.

**Fielmann** · 05-24-2012 08:55 AM

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Did you get the ICM stuff from SngWiz?

Yes. But I believe there are ICM-calculators that can be downloaded for free or be used straight in the browser. At least there used to be.

Originally Posted by donkbee

I do think that his calling range is wider than TT+ AQ+

Could be. That makes this more of a fold because the wider he calls, the wider he needs to be opening to be folding to our shove often enough. Judging by his PFR he just isn't opening that much.

05-21-2012 03:18 PM #1
Luco View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Still a fish Join Date Mar 2009 Posts 2,306	$3.50 18 man 77 vs raise Villain here is 31/5/1.8 over 65 hands. 6 left, top 4 pay. This guy is often aggressive on the flop. PokerStars - $3.11+$0.39\|150/300 NL - Holdem - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 3 MP: 3,029.00 CO: 3,920.00 BTN: 1,346.00 SB: 7,679.00 Hero (BB): 5,060.00 UTG: 5,966.00 MP posts ante 25.00, CO posts ante 25.00, BTN posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, UTG posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 150.00, Hero posts BB 300.00 Pre Flop: (600.00) Hero has 7 7 fold, MP raises to 900.00, fold, fold, fold, hero??? the two things that made me slow down were the low PFR stat (he preferred limping in then betting flops) and being so close to the money. IIRC this was a standard raise for him, but he didn't make them often and it came out semi fast. Shove or fold?
	Originally Posted by spoonitnow Worse doesn't call, better doesn't fold, blah blah same shit different day.
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05-21-2012 03:44 PM #2
Fielmann View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2008 Posts 422	Fold. Loose passive fish isn't going to fold to 3bshove nearly often enough.

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05-22-2012 05:42 PM #3
donkbee View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message SERIOUSLY WTF Join Date May 2005 Posts 6,261 Location outer space	Unless you have seem him shove with a 10bb (or less) stack before, I would probably just 3bet jam. 77 is the worst PP I do it with. I don't love it or anything, but 77 is just too good to fold IMO.
	Originally Posted by Fnord Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet. blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/
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05-22-2012 10:43 PM #4
Luco View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Still a fish Join Date Mar 2009 Posts 2,306	This spot really made me think. - We're playing push/fold, but not dead, if we lose - You pretty much have to expect a lot of calls given tight pfr range - Can I put the chips to better use by folding - Busting villain will put me in a v. strong position on the bubble to build a stack - Villain has limped 17 times and this is his 4th raise, his first in a while too The only snap decision I made with this hand was clicking 'mark for review'...
	Originally Posted by spoonitnow Worse doesn't call, better doesn't fold, blah blah same shit different day.
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05-23-2012 08:47 AM #5
Fielmann View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2008 Posts 422	I would guess villain's calling range is something like {TT+, AQ+}. We have 37.2% equity against it. If we fold, our equity in the prize pool is 18.17% according to ICM. However, we have an edge over our opposition. So let's say our real equity-if-fold is 21.0%. If we shove and villain folds, our ICM-equity is 21,9%, so our real equity is something like 25%. If we shove and villain calls and we win, our ICM-equity is 26.6%. However, the Originally Posted by Lucothefish - Busting villain will put me in a v. strong position on the bubble to build a stack matters too, so our real real equity probably around 32%. If we shove and villain calls and we lose, our ICM-equity is 9.5%, so our real equity is something like 10%. If the probability of villain folding is x, then, for the shove to be profitable: 0.25x + 0.320.372(1-x) + 0.10.628(1-x) > 0.21 0.25x + 0,11904 - 0,11904x + 0,0628 - 0,0628x > 0,21 0,25x - 0,11904x - 0,0628x > 0,21 - 0,11904 - 0,0628 0,06816x > 0,02816 x > 41% Villain's calling range includes 62 combos, so his raising range needs to include at least 105 combos which is something like {88+, AT+} or 8.0% which is not implausible. So in the end, both folding and shoving are probably about equally good.

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$3.50 18 man 77 vs raise

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$3.50 18 man 77 vs raise

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05-23-2012 05:32 PM #6
Luco View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Still a fish Join Date Mar 2009 Posts 2,306	Wow, thanks for that, really interesting, did you get the ICM stuff from SngWiz? I'll have to check it out as I move up. Donkbee, he'd never shoved. Not even once.
	Originally Posted by spoonitnow Worse doesn't call, better doesn't fold, blah blah same shit different day.
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05-23-2012 09:04 PM #7
donkbee View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message SERIOUSLY WTF Join Date May 2005 Posts 6,261 Location outer space	Originally Posted by Lucothefish Donkbee, he'd never shoved. Not even once. Then I would jam :P I like your work, Fielmann. I do think that his calling range is wider than TT+ AQ+ though.
	Originally Posted by Fnord Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet. blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/
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05-24-2012 08:55 AM #8
Fielmann View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2008 Posts 422	Originally Posted by Lucothefish Did you get the ICM stuff from SngWiz? Yes. But I believe there are ICM-calculators that can be downloaded for free or be used straight in the browser. At least there used to be. Originally Posted by donkbee I do think that his calling range is wider than TT+ AQ+ Could be. That makes this more of a fold because the wider he calls, the wider he needs to be opening to be folding to our shove often enough. Judging by his PFR he just isn't opening that much.

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