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$11 Rivered a set - Bet Size?

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  1. #1

    Default $11 Rivered a set - Bet Size?

    Best way to try to reel them in on the river? How about post-flop play... I was worried about AK so I didn't bet the turn...

    Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

    UTG (t1960)
    UTG+1 (t2260)
    Hero (t1800)
    MP1 (t2000)
    MP2 (t1960)
    MP3 (t2280)
    CO (t2060)
    Button (t1940)
    SB (t1960)
    BB (t1780)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q, A.
    2 folds, Hero raises to t120, 2 folds, MP3 calls t120, 3 folds, BB calls t80.

    Flop: (t380) 7, 4, A (3 players)
    BB bets t40, Hero raises to t300, MP3 calls t300, BB calls t260.

    Turn: (t1280) 3 (3 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

    River: (t1280) A (3 players)
    BB checks, Hero ???

    Thanks,

    Zook
  2. #2
    GatorJH's Avatar
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    I would have been more worried about the flush draw than AK and would have bet the turn to prevent giving a free card on the river. As for extracting chips, the pot is currently as 1,260. Any bet of significant value will only get called by a hand better than yours (pocket 7's or a made flush for example). However, if you put in a small bet and someone comes over the top what are you going to do? Paired boards are the breeding ground for full houses. You may be better off just checking this down.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  3. #3
    I agree. you had it backwards there, you bet the turn and probably check the river. put it this way, there are 7 possible hands that beat you on the turn. the river makes these 7 hands good enough to check-raise you. the flush seems highly unlikely but possible (is someone really calling with KQ hearts?

    hard for someone to call a big bet without having a hand that beats you. if you make a small bet you are asking for someone to come over the top with a fullhouse, flush or even a stone-cold bluff.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  4. #4
    LeFou's Avatar
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    as above; i'd take the cheap showdown here. check call anything <800?
    ...lost track of the pot size and your remaining stack
  5. #5
    drmcboy's Avatar
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    typically AK will raise you here on the flop. For sure check river. I'm honestly feeling not so fresh on the flop, I don't hate the turn check. I think folks are under reading the PS here with two opps in. Pretty much any reasonable bet commits you. You guys want to put 700 in there and then fold to a raise on the turn, or keep 1k, which you'll have to call off? Meh. I'm in check call mode after two calls on the flop.

    1200 chips is plenty to make here.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    typically AK will raise you here on the flop. For sure check river. I'm honestly feeling not so fresh on the flop, I don't hate the turn check. I think folks are under reading the PS here with two opps in. Pretty much any reasonable bet commits you. You guys want to put 700 in there and then fold to a raise on the turn, or keep 1k, which you'll have to call off? Meh. I'm in check call mode after two calls on the flop.

    1200 chips is plenty to make here.
    That's interesting. I think you give real good advice. I think I'd be more inclined to value bet here. I'm not worried about AK. I'd probably bet $500 here. I think this is a profitable bet, as with your check on the turn will probably induce a weaker ace to call (and offsets the times you are reraised and you fold.) I'm emphasizing here, that I will often get weaker hands to call here with the way you played it.

    Edit: I'm nerdy, and technical and stuff. A set is when you have 3 of the same cards, but two of them are in your hand. Trips is when you 3 of the same cards, but two of them are on the board. FYI. It matters tremendously more when thinking about how to play a hand. A set is covert, trips are not.
  7. #7
    GatorJH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    typically AK will raise you here on the flop. For sure check river. I'm honestly feeling not so fresh on the flop, I don't hate the turn check. I think folks are under reading the PS here with two opps in. Pretty much any reasonable bet commits you. You guys want to put 700 in there and then fold to a raise on the turn, or keep 1k, which you'll have to call off? Meh. I'm in check call mode after two calls on the flop.

    1200 chips is plenty to make here.
    Is it too late to change my mind and go with you on this? Good catch on the Pot size vs stack size on the turn.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  8. #8
    Staresy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck
    Edit: I'm nerdy, and technical and stuff. A set is when you have 3 of the same cards, but two of them are in your hand. Trips is when you 3 of the same cards, but two of them are on the board. FYI. It matters tremendously more when thinking about how to play a hand. A set is covert, trips are not.
    yeah, I was going to say this!!

    Oh, and for no other reason than because I want to say it, I agree - in my time visiting and posting FTR, I've always found that drmcboy gives excellent advice.
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  9. #9
    drmcboy's Avatar
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    Fun hand.

    I'm torn. I agree you'll get called by any A with a 500 bet here, but I also agree you want to fold if you get raised. The problem is, especially at the 11s, does the donkey with A9 want to raise? We know he shouldn't raise, but he may not. So the check allows you to snap off the bluff and the mistaken value bet. I'm not comfy enough with my knowledge of the 11s to say what makes more sense.

    I get a lot more value thinking through these things than you all get out of reading my ramblings, I assure you. I appreciate the comments, though. Maybe we could all head up to the mountains in Wyoming sometime?
  10. #10
    Funny, I post for one reason and find out that I should have posted for a completely different one. That's awesome.

    Zook
  11. #11
    GatorJH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    Maybe we could all head up to the mountains in Wyoming sometime?
    That's the best idea yet!!!! I'll bring the poker table and beer!!
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.

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