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noble007
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11-04-2009, 07:41 PM
Post subject: THE VARIANCE CHALLENGE!!!
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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Can anyone beat this?
This is my 1st 10 000 hands of the month I'm down 13 buy-ins when I should be up 3.
Can anyone produce a graph showing greater continued variance than this?
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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Jason
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: TN
Posts: 738
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11k isn't really that big of a sample, right? Also, I think it's widely accepted that those EV graphs and numbers are flawed. It only gets the EV after the money is all-in. Many bad beats and coolers, whether they are in your favor or not, occur before the money goes all-in and doesn't get accurately reflected in the "how am I running" graph? 
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- Jason
 
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kmind
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 3,223
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Definitely sucks. I think you should go back to full stacking though.
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Micro2Macro
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: No more spew nonsense
Posts: 2,684
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If you're a short stacker, this could be proof that a God does exist.
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<@spoonitnow> hustler's don't bitch they grind hard and die rich
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noble007
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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You're right 11k isn't that big of a sample, I'll update at 20k - If I can afford to get to 20k lol.
Also the situations you are referring to occur vary rarely and would theoretically balance out unless you are 3B sub-optimal hands.
New Year will be full stacking again, sorry again to any guys that have to play 100nl on Stars with me, the amount of short-stackers on there though is insane.
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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spoonitnow
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BC Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: The Grind
Posts: 4,065
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I've seen a lot worse and been through a lot worse more often. This does not impress me.
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Monsieur_chat
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: London
Posts: 207
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
If you're a short stacker, this could be proof that a God does exist.
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qfmft
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noble007
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
I've seen a lot worse and been through a lot worse more often. This does not impress me.
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I was tilted obviously when posting this and have since gone through and looked at it in more detail.
I have just been running bad in 3B pots AI 1 on 1 PF I've played this month which is +150.
My actual EV is neutral which means I should have won say somewhere round the 75/150 of those three bet pots (Not really but to keep the idea simple) but I've only won 40/150
So yes not as dramatic as I thought but the consistency of that -line looks so brutal it's hard to believe it will change.
& yes that's what you get for being SS, there is some justice in the world, there is yada yada yada
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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TonyB73
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by noble007
Also the situations you are referring to occur vary rarely and would theoretically balance out unless you are 3B sub-optimal hands.
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This is plain wrong.
I get coolered a lot, I get sucked out a lot in hands where less than full stacks end up going in, and I get sucked out A LOT when 80% of the stacks go in before the river suckout card, and the rest goes in on the river.
These occurrences are either not reflected at all, or reflected in a very misleading way, in EV graphs.
That third case in particular is very common. When I flop a monster, my goal is to get as much money in the pot by the river (or earlier if I think villain will call bigger bets/raises). In the vast majority of cases, they won't call an open shove, so just shoving the flop is not optimal. So when I get sucked out, I often still have some behind when the bad beat card comes on the river. On an all in EV graph, that looks like I'm getting my money in dead, and when I lose the pot its "expected", which is clearly wrong.
I'm not complaining, because I'm sure it doesn't happen to me more often than to others, but I'm putting it up here to point out how ridiculously misleading all in EV graphs are. They are NOT necessarily a good indicator of how good or bad you are running.
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kmind
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 3,223
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I like Noble too much to get mad at him for short stacking but I really think you (Noble) have great potential full stacking.
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noble007
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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Thanks Kmind.
@ Tony - I was referring to SS who when they raise push 20-30bb into the pot so get in alot of 1-1 AI situations Pre & On the flop.
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: on teh button... steelin ur blindz
Posts: 1,703
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There are 50bb min. tables on stars and deep tables on FT - or you could play PLHE where the shorties are confused. The more 50bb min tables are open the more fish will come. Recreational players don't enjoy playing with a table full of 7/5 tardstacks either.
END THE HATE!
As for the downswong: Been through worse. Won't show you because it's retarded. There are a million other factors, too. I've been on a heater and behind all-in EV by a lot, and I've had downswings where I was ahead. It's meaningless. There are so many other spots where you can get lucky/unlicky that don't involve hands going to showdown.
Don't underestimate the risk of ruin, and play with a proper roll. "Way overrolled" is what I would consider a proper BR.
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d0zer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,718
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still meh, seen much worse.
c'mon guys, let's see those truly soul crushing graphs!
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noble007
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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Nice one Dozer! Prett Sick!
I assume that's mainly 100NL?
Thanks makes me feel better.
Oh & just to prove in my case most of my variance comes from running bad AI 1-1 in about 300 3Bet pots.
Here you can see 1000 of my 1400 - variance is just from this.
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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d0zer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,718
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shut your filthy short-stacking mouth, scum 
THIS IS YOUR FUTURE:
http://www.pokertableratings.com/sta...r-search/1Bunn
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noble007
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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Wow. I wish!!!!!
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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Jason
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: TN
Posts: 738
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Wow, almost 3 million hands and only $7k to show for it? Is super-nova elite THAT great of a program? How much "rake back" does he get? What other perks are available?
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- Jason
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d0zer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,718
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by noble007
Wow. I wish!!!!!
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have some self-respect sir! set your sights a little higher FFS
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noble007
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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@ Jason, yes.
If he was already SuperNova Elite last year it means he will have made about $130 000 in VPP & FPP bonuses this year.
It's certainly not a fortune but it's alot more than I made this year, probably more than Dozer I would imagine as well. (But you can't put a price on self respect )
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 586
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jason
Wow, almost 3 million hands and only $7k to show for it? Is super-nova elite THAT great of a program? How much "rake back" does he get? What other perks are available?
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Yes....it is.
http://www.fpppro.com/supernova-elite-value.php
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sk8r_daniel
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 279
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I need to start playing somewhere with rakeback...+fpp incentives
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