River bluff sizing and general linecheck

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

CO ($11)
Button ($8.83)
SB ($18.30)
BB ($13.39)
Hero (UTG) ($6.15)
MP ($5.38)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, 10
Hero raises $0.20, 2 folds, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.80) 2, K, Q (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.46, Hero calls $0.46, 1 fold, SB calls $0.46

Turn: ($2.18) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1.16, Hero calls $1.16, 1 fold

River: ($4.50) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets???


Villain 17/10/45/71/2.9/60/50

What do those stats mean? It looks like you're getting the river check/call treatment from a scared K.

vpip/pfr/steal%/Fsteal%/3bet/cbet/fold to cbet

Do you like calling the flop and turn?

I bet $3.05 on the river, too much?

why not raise/call turn if you intend to bluff river?

Don't like the sound of that. If I raise to like $3 on the turn if he calls I'll have slightly less than a 1/2 PSB left. Villain might just think I'm committed and make a crying call with his Kx. I thought his range was strong so I didn't wanna raise into it and get blown off my hand. I thought calling made more sense. Plus a Q seems to be the only real scare card that I could bluff at, no point raising and then jamming on 100% of rivers. Pretty sure he'd call a lot more often if a random 3s or something came on the river.

I said raise/call turn, not to shove any Rivers, You can still fold/check Back on bricks. You are repping KQ/22 . JTdd should Be on your turn raise / call range also.

In a heads-up pot I'd say you're spot on, but this guy donked out into 4 players on the flop and bet again vs two flop callers on the turn, so I thought he was stronger than usual, I was actually shocked when he checked the river. For that reason I thought calling would have a higher EV than raising and getting it in.

Imagine I had posted the HH without the river action. Would you even want to have a bluff-raising range in this spot vs such a strong-ass line multiway, and with the SB still in the hand? I don't know the answer, and I'm genuinely interested to hear what others think.


So disregard river action, and let's look at this turn spot.

SB checks, BB bets $1.16, Hero???

Should I ever be bluffing here?

Whats his range in your opinion?
Whats your turn value raising range?
JTdd is a bluff combo. IT is the srongest semibluff and IT is right Below 22 on this board. Raise/calling JTdd bere besides its+EV in this spot has the advantage of opening their ranges vs your raise/call range here vs Most villains.

My value range is only QQ-KK, I'd just call down with AA and KQs probably as well.

I estimate his turn betting range to be possibly QQ, 22, KQ, AK, KJ, and possibly JT but I'd heavily discount it.

I agree with you, if I ever wanted to have a bluffing range here JTdd is a no-brainer. But should I be bluffing into a super-strong range in a 3-way pot? Another thing worth considering, which I just thought of, is this spot is going to crop up so infrequently that I don't think I even need to worry about having any bluffs here. The chances of me being in a similar spot with this particular villain are slim to none. So I can just raise and get it in with all my value hands.

If you're going to bluff it, then you're going to have to do it with heart and ship, rather than get the obvious check/call treatment spoon mentions. I don't like shipping too much on this board though - most micro players will cry call Kx anyway and any decent hand reader should snap it off (not that there are many of those about).

I think an important realization is that sometimes when IP it's ok to concede the hand (ie: check), even if you know you will lose, assuming you got the correct odds on the turn to make your call.

Villain donked FOUR-way on the flop (strong), including into an UTG opener (strong).
Villain got called twice on the flop, and continued to barrel on the turn (strong).
Potential scary card comes on the river, so he checks (pot controlling? can still be strong).

You got good odds on the turn to call, so you called. You bricked, so I would check back. I don't think you're getting folds all that often here. He has AK imo.

I need villain to be folding more than 40% to have a +EV bluff here, since I bet $3.05. I think we can pretty much narrow villain's range down to Kx here since he's never checking trips or better, it's just a matter of how much Kx.

JTs is literally the worst hand in my river range, so it's definitely a great bluffing candidate in this spot. Villain was getting 4.3:1 on his preflop call and was closing the action, so he's going to have a wider range than normal. I would say KJ and KT and definitely in this guys range, possibly hands like K9s as well. AK he'd be more likely to raise in my opinion but we can discount half the combos.

Villain range 1: AK (6) KJ (9) KT (9) - 24 combos. 24*0.41 = 10 combos, if villain is folding 10 combos I have a profitable bluff here. Even if villain is calling with KJ 50% of the time this is a nice wee spot.

Things are only going to get better as I widen his range. If it's profitable against a stronger range than he necessarily had, I think it's safe to assume this was a good bluff. Considering he could have TJ himself or some random spazz hand, I'm happy with the bluff.


@Griffey - I agree with you about conceding the hand sometimes when you brick, and perhaps I bluff too often, it's probably one of my many leaks, but I knew during play that JT was the absolute worst hand I could have in this spot and thought it was necessary to bluff out solely out of principle, since it's my best bluffing hand. I actually though I bet too much for it to be +EV that's why I posted the hand. Fwiw I think his calling range is going to fairly elastic in this spot and betting smaller would encourage a lot more crying calls from his weaker Kx. Anyway, it seems like a made a good play. Does my analysis seem skewed at all to you? Do you think this was a +EV play?

I think your analysis is fine. I agree that JT (J high) is for sure the worst hand you're getting to the river with. So you likely won't have many other bluffing candidates anyhow. If you think he's going to fold the desired amount need to be profitable, then I'd say go for it. In game, you'll get reads/feels on if someone is weak or not that is hard to gather from just looking at a HH. If you shoved and villain folded, I wouldn't be surprised if he had JT himself. The strongest hand I can see folding is maybe KJ.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

I knew during play that JT was the absolute worst hand I could have in this spot and thought it was necessary to bluff out solely out of principle, since it's my best bluffing hand.

As Griffey pointed out, villain clearly loves his hand and is going to be very hard-pressed to fold it. Exploit this by vbetting anything that has TPTK beat, and checking back anything else.

Sure, in order to play perfectly GTO, you have to at least consider bluffing the bottom of your range, but the important thing is that you have a *perceived* bluffing range. Incidentally, this is exactly why he checks to you with AK+ here. Don't do the exact thing he wants you to do.

If this 17/10 6maxer somehow finds the mental fortitude to note that you never bluff when bet into twice on 4-way flops, and uses that information to exploit you later on, then more power to him.