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I did some CREV on this, I agree he may not be cold calling with the smaller pairs, even this deep, so if we give him 88-QQ, ATs+, KQs, KQo, AQo+ preflop, then if he donks his flushdraws, overpairs and sets, then I raise and he folds his overpairs and jams his sets and flushdraws, calling his jam has a +ve EV of 9bb for me. It's a bit better obviously if he also continues with his QQ/JJ, which probably depends how he sees me. For simplicity I've assumed the CO is uninvolved and folds the flop.
If I call the flop, that has an EV of 33bb, assuming the following turn action: he check-calls QQ/JJ on the turn, check-folds his smaller overpairs, bets sets and flushdraws again and I call again (the turn call for me is here is very marginally +ev).
For river play I assumed, for the sake of simplicity, that he bets sets again and I fold, or it checks down.
So it looks like calling the flop is better than raise/fold, but I'm not entirely satisfied with my analysis and I find it hard to think about the flop because of the various possibilities on later streets - involve the CO and it gets worse.
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