Bovada NL5

NL5 - Fullring

No reads.

I'm at $4.90, villain is at ~$3.50ish

Dealt TcTh in the Hijack. Folds to me and I make a 3x raise. CO calls as does the SB.

Flop comes Jd5c2d

Pot is $0.50

SB checks, I c-bet $0.30. CO calls, SB folds. Pot now $1.10

8c turn. I bet $0.78, CO once again flats. Pot now $2.66.

Qc on river. Hero?

I think you need to be asking yourself why you're betting the turn, and what you think villain's range is on the river.

The flop bet is fine b/c there's a FD, so we do get some value from worse, and the structure of the board means we get value from worse PP's as well. We'd rather be against SB than CO so we can have position, but meh. OTT, villain's range is FD's, Jx, and PP's. Very often the PP's (except maybe 99) will fold to a double barrel. But we can still get value from FD's. Turn bet is definitely on the thin side though since there will be so many Jx combos in villain's range. I think we can either bet turn about 2/3 or we can x/f tbh. Villain will usually try to get to showdown with his worse PP's.

On the river we should x/f ainec imo. Of the hands we were ahead of (FD's), a reasonable number of them just made TP (AQdd, KQdd, QTdd, Q9dd). Additionally, there's nothing worse in villain's range that will call now since the only worse hands are missed draws and a few PP's that held on until now (they're basically never calling now). We let villain bluff us with some of his FD's, but he may check back some of his missed NFD's, allowing us to win. Plus, there just aren't enough FD's in villain's range to outweigh the Jx (which won't fold, and won't bet).

The only other option could be to bet the river pretty small. 30-40% pot. We would get villain to fold all his FD's that don't have a pair, but lose the least the times he has Jx or Qx and doesn't fold.