[10NL] KJo, BU vs SB (3 handed)

OK, going to post a couple of hands from this mornings session;

Villain is 30/26/16 over a decent sample size. 18% 3b from blinds against BU opens, folds blinds to steal 68%.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $12.16
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $13.40

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J K

Hero raises to $0.25, SB calls $0.20, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.75, 3 players) 6 J 3
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB raises to $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1.05

Turn: ($3.75, 2 players) 2
SB bets $2.36, Hero calls $2.36

River: ($8.47, 2 players) 3
SB bets $7.70, Hero ???

Umm, what value hands can villain have here? I don't think he ever shows up with JJ+ and he probably 3bets AJ pre as well.

That leaves like 66 and 33 (4 combos total), maybe 54 as well but that seems unlikely. Villains range contains mostly busted FDs I think?

Can we call down? Hero has $5.93 behind and pot is $14.40 so we're getting almost 2.5:1.

Another flop fold imo.

As played I'm calling.

Talk about why you wanna fold flop?

I think you're folding flop too often if you're folding TPGK BU vs SB. Especially 3 handed.

Given villain's stats, I'd say he's very likely to 3b a lot of his low pockets, so this discounts sets somewhat.

Aside from 45 getting there on turn, I'd say this is a pretty good runout.

I'm definitely not folding the flop, especially since he can have J8/J9/JT/QJhh.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Talk about why you wanna fold flop?

I think you're folding flop too often if you're folding TPGK BU vs SB. Especially 3 handed.

I want to fold flop because I have no intention of calling down another two bets to showdown, and I aniticpate him to keep firing when he c/r's our cbet. The worst I expect him to have is a flush draw, which has plenty of equity against us, especially Ax. When we're not ahead, we're miles behind. I really don't like this spot. I wouldn't KEEP folding tpgk vs this guy in these spots, but assuming he's not appearing to get out of line, yeah I don't want to continue.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm definitely not folding the flop, especially since he can have J8/J9/JT/QJhh.

This part of his range is more or less flipping with us. I don't really want to take him on when if we're ahead, we're slightly ahead, and if we're behind we're virtually dead.

If we think about this from a GTO perspective, he's risking 1.5 for 1.2, so his bet needs to work like ~55% of the time, so we need to defend around 45% of our flop betting range.

So whether or not we have to continue with KJ here is strongly dependent to how wide we open pre + how wide we cbet his flop. This varies widely from player to player. Though I'd imagine for most ppl KJ will fall into the top 45% of the flop betting range here.

If we're going to get into GTO, we need to know how often hero is cbetting, and more importantly how often villain is c/r'ing.

I mean the truth is, I fluctuate between calling this at flop and not, folding as default. It depends a great deal on how I perceive my image to be. If I think I'm getting pushed around, then I don't fold flop and reasses turn. But if I assume villain's range to be hearts and better, that he's not raising pure air just because we need to call nearly half our range, then I'm folding because I can't keep calling and I expect him to keep betting. If he's auto c/r'ing when he figures 55% folds, then he's c/r'ing flop a lot, which of course changes things a great deal.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

If we're going to get into GTO, we need to know how often hero is cbetting, and more importantly how often villain is c/r'ing.

Not exactly.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

If we're going to get into GTO, we need to know how often hero is cbetting, and more importantly how often villain is c/r'ing.

If we're getting into GTO then we need to know how often hero is cbetting (how many combos more specifically), but assuming we're defending appropriately, we don't care how often villain is c/r'ing.

If we adjusted our plan based on villain's c/r frequency, we'd be trying to exploit him in some way and then not playing GTO.