[10NL] JJ river decision

Villain is 28/21 with 8% 3bet over 501 hands. FTCB 31%.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $11.09
MP: $10.00
CO: $2.87
BTN: $19.67
SB: $12.60
BB: $21.43

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J J

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) T K 6
BB checks, Hero bets $0.45, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.85, 2 players) 8
BB bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00

River: ($8.85, 2 players) 6
BB bets $17.03 and is all-in, Hero ???

OK, somewhat similar to the earlier hand I posted - I'm struggling to see exactly what villain's value range is. I guess he could check raise with a set/top 2 but it's pretty dry board so I'm not sure how likely that is. He could c/r with all his draws like QJ, 98, 97 and 87 as well.

He bombs the turn - I'm not sure what this means? The board is fairly dry so he doesn't need to do it for protection. Is he just trying to blow me off of my hand?

River pairs the board. Which means villain is less likely to have c/r with 66. That leaves his c/r value range at TT and KT...nothing else. Villain prob 3bets AK and c/c with KQ/KJ.

Pot is $15.54 and effective stack if $6.69. Again, just under 2.5:1 - soooo, yeah, help please?

Um wtf is going on post flop? Why are you leading? Why are you calling a c/r? Why are you calling turn? Why have you made a thread about river decision? Just fold at every opportunity post flop.

This doesn't make any sense to me at all. This is utter spew imo. I dunno what you're thinking.

I think I'm checking back flop, calling turn (assuming he doesn't overbet after flop c-c), and reassessing river.

I think his turn and river sizing here indicate a huge hand. You call a flop c/r, he probably thinks you're not folding for shit and is maxing the value.

Checking back flop actually sounds pretty good - I just bet expecting draws and some Tx to c/c. It's not like villain has to have Kx.

What do you think he is c/r flop with?

Check back flop!

Given you bet, I would b/f flop. you have the worst hand to bluff catch. You block all his OESD/Gutters.

Definitely fold turn, not close.

But seriously.... check back flop. Why are you betting? If he c/c, what's your turn plan? If you check back turn and he leads river, what's your river plan?

I agree checking back flop is a better play.

I was betting to get value from draws and Tx. If he c/c, I chk turn. If he leads river, I fold.

I think that's how I usually approach situations like this.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

What do you think he is c/r flop with?

66 TT QJ KT.

Actually I doubt he even has QJ; hero raised UTG and villain doesn't seem too bad based on stats. Villain is beating AK.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Checking back flop actually sounds pretty good - I just bet expecting draws and some Tx to c/c. It's not like villain has to have Kx.

What do you think he is c/r flop with?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I agree checking back flop is a better play.

I was betting to get value from draws and Tx. If he c/c, I chk turn. If he leads river, I fold.

I think that's how I usually approach situations like this.

Do you see the flaw in this plan?

You are betting to get c/c by worse hands - namely draws and Tx.

But your plan is to check back turn if called, and fold to river leads.

So now you're getting bluffed off of JJ by his draws and maybe even bluffed off JJ if he bets Tx on river after a turn check!

Again maybe this depends on how the games are, and if they are SUPER passive and you aren't likely to get bluffed on river, then I suppose this plan is ok. But in general it sounds like your plan is for one street of value, so might as well check back and try to keep the pot small.

Too often ppl bet too wide IP imo, worried about giving random hands free cards. Those random hands are things like A7, Q8 and stuff, or low pockets that are drawing to 2-3 outs. Sure 6% of the time you check back they spike turn vs you, but some other non-zero % of the time they bluff turn and you call and take it to SD.

Yeah, I absolutely see what you're saying. It makes a whole lot more sense to check back.

In fact, I bet this is one of my biggest leaks atm because I actually play this way a lot - bet flop, chk turn, c/f river.

It's nice when you get something out of a hand analysis that you weren't expecting. I'm actually pretty excited to try and fix this.

Just out of curiosity if villain bets turn and bets river - what are we doing then? Still calling?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Just out of curiosity if villain bets turn and bets river - what are we doing then? Still calling?

Yah this is a tough spot, and probably depends on what you're flop ck back range is.

Only you know if JJ is the top of your ck back and call turn range. Some ppl might have KKK or K9s or other things like that, in which case maybe you can fold JJ. Otherwise, it might be a GTO call. Even still, given you block a lot of his draws I wouldn't feel great about calling twice.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Yah this is a tough spot, and probably depends on what you're flop ck back range is.

Only you know if JJ is the top of your ck back and call turn range. Some ppl might have KKK or K9s or other things like that, in which case maybe you can fold JJ. Otherwise, it might be a GTO call. Even still, given you block a lot of his draws I wouldn't feel great about calling twice.

what do you think of checking back our KJ or KQ? We aren't firing three with either of them unimproved are we?

Originally Posted by relaywisp

what do you think of checking back our KJ or KQ? We aren't firing three with either of them unimproved are we?

Given we're UTG, I'd be more worried that BB might flat AK here so I'm not sure we can go 3 with KQ. I think if we were in LP vs BB then on certain reasonable runouts we could probably go for 3 with KQ.

KJ is probably an ok hand to mix in betting flop sometimes and checking back others (assuming you don't have other Kx in range). If we had other Kx, then I'd probably bet KJ and ck back K9s or K8s etc.

A lot of these questions depend on hero a lot and overall ranges from certain spots.

Fold on the turn. You are leveling yourself here. You say that you don't know what it means when your opp bombs the turn. Probably means the same thing the check raise on the flop meant. They have a better hand than you. The shove on the river means they think you have a really strong second best hand since you called the other streets and are trying to get max value.

I don't play at Stars because I can't, but I would think .10 NL would be way more straightforward than this.