[5NL] ATo in SB, X/C river?

BTN: $9.03 (180.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $5.38 (107.6 bb)
BB: $13 (260 bb)
MP: $11.63 (232.6 bb) {63/22, 61% CB, 63% fold to CB, 37% agg freq, 278 hands}
CO: $12.01 (240.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T A
MP calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, BB folds, MP calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.50) T 7 K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.90) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($0.90) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.65, Hero calls?

This might be a standard river spot, but oh well.

Preflop I think is fine? He's probably calling something like

435 77-22,A7s-A2s,K8s-K2s,Q9s-Q5s,J9s-J7s,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A9o-A2o,K9o-K4o,QTo-Q9o,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,87o,76o,65o,54o

And we have 63% vs. that range which should make up for our disadvantage of being OOP. On the other hand he is a fairly aggressive player and we can expect to have to X/F a lot postflop so maybe we should narrow our range to a bit stronger here for ISOing this player. Thoughts on this?

Flop I don't think c-betting will be as profitable as X/C. He's probably betting all his draws, kings, and tens, along with some air and maybe even a few 7s. We're sitting pretty vs. that for our X/C.

Board: TdKh7s
Equity Win Tie
Hero 48.42% 48.23% 0.19% { AdTc }
MP 51.58% 51.39% 0.19% { A7s, K8s-K2s, J9s, T7s+, 98s, 86s, A7o, K9o-K4o, QTo, J9o+, T8o+, 98o }

Turn when he checks I want to discount Kx and 89 heavily.

River after turn check I think has to be a X/C. He's probably got something like:

Board: TdKh7s6h6s
Equity Win Tie
Hero 42.11% 42.11% 0.00% { AdTc }
MP 57.89% 57.89% 0.00% { K4s-K2s, J9s, 86s, 9h8h, 9s8s, K4o, J9o }



Like I said this might be STD. Thoughts?

I think your hand is strong enough to cbet the flop for value/protection and check call most turns.

As played on the river, your instincts are right about his range, but its really more of a bluffing frequency problem than a range problem. The only thing that I'm not seeing in his range is that he may be value betting a worse ten. For this reason I find the river to be a quite easy call with anything that beats a ten.

Generally speaking when you are playing against aggressive opponents, its virtually never correct to fold on the river if you beat even a single combo of worse value betting hands. The reasons are kind of complex, but basically it has to do with the fact that he's value betting that worse hand because he believes it's good the majority of the time and thus, the hand you have (AT for example) that beats the low hands in his value betting range must be very high in your range, and if you were to fold it, you'd be folding over 75-80% of the time, which is very exploitable. Aggressive opponent thus value bets the worse hands such as KT/QT along with enough bluffs that it would be ludicrous for you to fold AT, but if you had 99, then you may have to fold even though he's bluffing quite a bit.

Yes, for some reason it didn't even cross my mind he could be value betting a worse ten. Without trying to go into the analysis of what you explained there it does kind of make sense intuitively that I would never want to fold here if he's ever value betting worse.

Cbet the flop. Make it easy. I would call the river since your line looks very weak.

I think that it would be better if you bet on the flop. I really can not understand you, you raised pre-flop, hit ten on the flop and then go check, why?! I mean with your check you give him an opportunity to make better hand than you or maybe to bluff you. However, about the river I think that you have to call, because for my opinion he bluffing you or maybe has ten with lower card.