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Originally Posted by daven
please list the hands that you think are possible for villain to hold based on his preflop call and then potting flop and turn.
what percentage of these hands are things like underpairs or third pairs to the board?
I think preflop villians tend to flat hands like suited connectors and small pairs, sometimes TT-QQ but ive never once see a person lead out with TT-QQ unless its a pair board. even then they lead for pot plus a click. most of the times ive called a "pot-button click it up once" sized bet. ( $2.00 into a $1.93 pot) its a unlikely hand. something that caught runner runner, a flop FD that backdoor'd a straight or two pair OTR, pot lead into PFR'r has been weakness so far. I mean if he shows JJ,TT,KQ,J9 I think im more surprised than if he shows 98
Heres my thought process during the hand
first thought, "overpair" then the size of the bet capped that for me OTF because I haven't seen that play yet with that flop texture.( I pay very close attention to flop texture due to my huge leak I had with cbets back in the stars days).
next thought is "set", JJ would 99% x-r this flop, its extremely rare for someone to let the aggressor barrel cards.
TT would x-c, maybe lead but definitely less than full pot because most villians that are bet-folding don't bet full pot. they don't want to "throw money away" the times they have to fold when raised.
so that leaves less premium hands like 99-22,AQ,AJ,KQ,KJ,QJ,QT,Q9,JT,J9,T9,T8,98,97,87, etc. after said that, I think his betting range is all of this right here. two pair , Top pair , second pair in pocket , second pair with BD FD , pair and gutter , OESD , and Broad way gutters.
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Board: Td3hJc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 43.36% 40.77% 2.59% { 99-44, 22, 3d3s, 3d3c, 3s3c, 97s, 87s, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, AhTh, AsTs, KhTh, KsTs, QhTh, QsTs, JhTh, JsTs, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Th9h, Ts9s, Th8h, Ts8s, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KhQs, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KhJs, KsJd, KsJh, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdTh, KdTs, KhTs, KsTh, KcTh, KcTs, QdJh, QdJs, QhJd, QhJs, QsJd, QsJh, QdTh, QdTs, QhTs, QsTh, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs, JsTh }
MP3 56.64% 54.04% 2.59% { QcTc }
OTT :
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9d3hJcTs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.09% 51.51% 3.58% { 88-77, 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, 3d3s, 3d3c, 3s3c, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Jh9h, Js9s, Th9h, Th8h, 9h7h, 9s7s, 9c7c, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KhJs, KsJd, KsJh, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdTh, KsTh, KcTh, QdJh, QdJs, QhJd, QhJs, QsJd, QsJh, QdTh, QsTh, JdTh, JsTh }
MP3 44.91% 41.34% 3.58% { QcTc }
OTR: when he half pots I think he has some nut combos left and mostly single pair missed draw hands. 3to1 pot odds means 25% equity. I think we have 25% OTR.
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